It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.
What does the US gov't do in response? Wouldn't they throw globs of money at Intel and Nvidia?
Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#32Since there's such an interdependence between nvidia and the other companies involed in AI to the point that if one fails they all fail, shouldn't the analysis focus on the weakest link in the AI circle jerk?
Nvidia is the biggest link, however, I'd wager OpenAI and the likes are big enough to make a significant dent in the mammoth. So yeah, this analysis is sort of a spherical cows in a vacuum situation.
Still, it's interesting the probability is so high while ignoring real-world factors. I'd expect it to be much higher due to: - another adjacent company dipping - some earnings target not being met - china/taiwan - just the AI craze slowing down
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#33Nvidia PE ratio: 44
I do hope they crash so that I can buy as much as possible at a discount.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#34This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…
Also there's no way Nvidia's market share isn't shrinking. Especially in inference.
But will the whole pie grow or shrink?
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#35This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…
“In a gold rush, sell shovels”… Well, at some point in the gold rush everyone already has their shovels and pickaxes.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#36Worth noting that the implied volatility extracted here is largely a function of how far OTM the strike is relative to current spot, not some market-specific view on $100. If NVDA were trading at $250 today, the options chain would reprice and you'd extract similar vol for whatever strike was ~45% below. The analysis answers "what's the probability of a near-halving from here" more than "what's special about $100." Still useful for the prediction contest, but the framing makes it sound like the market is specifically opining on that price level.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#37It goes to nearly zero if China invades Taiwan, and that seems like it has at least a 10% chance of happening in the next year or two.
Going to zero is one potential outcome. Equally plausible is it goes up 10% in a relatively quick battle or diplomatic outcome which ends the geopolitical uncertainty.
There's approximately 0% chance that China will ship leading edge wafers from captured TSMC to the West.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#38This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…
Also there's no way Nvidia's market share isn't shrinking. Especially in inference.
The large api/token providers, and large consumers are all investing in their own hardware. So, they are in an interesting position where the market is growing, and NVIDIA is taking the lion's share of enterprise, but is shrinking at the hyperscaler side (google is a good example as they shift more and more compute to TPU). So, they have a shrinking market share, but its not super visible.
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#39This is more of a derivative pricing article and has nothing to do with nvidia really
Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction
#40Nvidia PE ratio: 44 I do hope they crash so that I can buy as much as possible at a discount.
Them being far above the median PE ratio for the S&P 500 tells you that a future correction would be a discount and you should buy? Please walk me through your logic on this one.