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Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

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Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#171

Post by smw »

reflexe wrote: post #142

According to nvidia’s 2025 annual report [1], 34% of their sales for 2025 comes from just 3 customers. Additionally, they mentioned that customers can cancel purchases with little to no penalty and notice [2]. This is not unique for hardware companies, but to think that all it takes is just one company to get their sales down by 12% (14b$). To cut to the point, my guess is that nvidia is not sustainable, and at some…

I have lots of skepticism about everything involved in this, but on this particular point:

It's a bit like TSMC: you couldn't buy space on $latestGen fab because Apple had already bought it all. Many companies would have very much liked to order H200s and weren't able to, as they were all pre-sold to hyperscalers. If one of them stopped buying, it's very likely they could sell to other customers, though there might be more administrative overhead?

Now there are some interesting questions about Nvidia creating demand by investing huge amounts of money in cloud providers that will order nv hardware, but that's a different issue.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#172

Post by belval »

whaleofatw2022 wrote: post #152
Yizahi wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is commonly repeated idea, but it doesn't take into account countless token farms which are smaller than a datacenter. Basically anything from a single MB with 8 cards to a small shed with rigs, all of which tend to disregard common engineering practices and run hardware into a ground to maximize output until next police raid or difficulty bump. Plenty of photos in the internet of crappy rigs like that, and no o…

Let's also not forget the set of miners that either overclock or dont really care about long term in how they set up thermals

Miners usually don't overclock though. If anything underclocking is the best way to improve your ROI because it significantly reduces the power consumption while retaining most of the hashrate.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#174

Post by JMiao »

mbrumlow wrote: post #144
mnky9800n wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't understand the argument that nvidia GPUs only work for 1-3 years. I am currently using A100s and H100s every day. Those aren't exactly new anymore.

It’s not that they don’t work. It’s how businesses handle hardware. I worked at a few data centers on and off in my career. I got lots of hardware for free or on the cheap simply because the hardware was considered “EOL” after about 3 years, often when support contracts with the vendor ends. There are a few things to consider. Hardware that ages produce more errors, and those errors cost, one way or another. Rack spa…

Do you know how support contract lengths are determined? Seems like a path to force hardware refreshes with boilerplate failure data carried over from who knows when.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#175

Post by esafak »

kqr wrote: post #151
_fat_santa wrote: post #11

This article goes more into the technical analysis of the stock rather than the underlying business fundamentals that would lead to a stock dump. My 30k ft view is that the stock will inevitably slide as AI datacenter spending goes down. Right now Nvidia is flying high because datacenters are breaking ground everywhere but eventually that will come to an end as the supply of compute goes up. The counterargument to th…

Fundamental analysis is great! But I have trouble answering concrete questions of probability with it. How do you use fundamental analysis to assign a probability to Nvidia closing under $100 this year, and what probability do you assign to that outcome? I'd love to hear your reasoning around specifics to get better at it.

Don't you need a model for how people will react to the fundamentals? People set the price.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#177

Post by originalvichy »

As others have noted, the article is analysing the actual financial markets angle.

For my two cents on the technical side, it is likely that any Western-origin shakiness will come from Apple and how it manages to land the Gemini deal and Apple Intelligence v2. There is an astounding amount of edge inference sitting in people’s phones and laptops that only slightly got cracked open with Apple Intelligence.

Data centre buildouts will get corrected when the numbers come in from Apple: how large of a share in tokens used by the average consumer can be fulfilled with lightweight models and Google searches of the open internet. This will serve as a guiding principle for any future buildout and heavyweight inference cards that Nvidia is supplying. The 2-5 year moat top providers have with the largest models will get chomped at by the leisure/hobby/educational use cases that lightweight models capably handle. Small language and visual models are already amazing. The next crack will appear when the past gen cards (if they survive the around the clock operation) get bought up by second hand operators that can provide capable inference of even current gen models.

If past knowledge of DC operators holds (e.g. Google and its aging TPUs that still get use), the providers with the resources to buy new space for newer gens will accumulate the amount of hardware, but the providers who need to continuously shave off the financial hit that comes with using less efficient older cards.

I’m excited to see future blogs about hardware geeks buying used inference stacks and repurposing them for home use :)

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#178

Post by selfhoster11 »

iLoveOncall wrote: post #160
agentcoops wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hear your argument, but short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon. Of course I could easily be wrong, but regardless I think the most predictable cause for a drop in the NVIDIA price would be that the CHIPS act/recent decisions by the CCP leads a Chinese firm to bring to market a CUDA compatible and reliable GPU at a fraction of the cost. It shoul…

> short of major algorithmic breakthroughs I am not convinced the global demand for GPUs will drop any time soon Or, you know, when LLMs don't pay off.

They already are paying off. The nature of LLMs means that they will require expensive, fast hardware that's a large capex.

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#179

Post by notatoad »

originalvichy wrote: post #177

As others have noted, the article is analysing the actual financial markets angle. For my two cents on the technical side, it is likely that any Western-origin shakiness will come from Apple and how it manages to land the Gemini deal and Apple Intelligence v2. There is an astounding amount of edge inference sitting in people’s phones and laptops that only slightly got cracked open with Apple Intelligence. Data centre…

>when the numbers come in from Apple: how large of a share in tokens used by the average consumer can be fulfilled with lightweight models and Google searches of the open internet

is there any reason to expect that this information will ever be known outside of apple?

Re: Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction

#180

Post by Loudergood »

readthenotes1 wrote: post #164
lairv wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NVIDIA stock tanked in 2025 when people learned that Google used TPUs to train Gemini, which everyone in the community knows since at least 2021. So I think it's very likely that NVIDIA stock could crash for non-rationale reasons edit: 2025* not 2024

It also tanked to ~$90 when Trump announced tariffs on all goods for Taiwan except semiconductors. I don't know if that's non-rational, or if people can't be expected to read the second sentence of an announcement before panicking.

The market is full of people trying to anticipate how other people are going to react and exploit that by getting there first. There's a layer aimed at forecasting what that layer is going to do as well.

It's guesswork all the way down.

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