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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#842

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making the hardware is actually the easy part. Everyone and their uncle who had some cash have tried by now: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Huawei, Amazon, Intel - the list goes on and on. But Nvidia is not a chip company. Huang himself said they are mostly a software company. And that is how they were able to build a gigantic moat. Because noone else has even come close on the software side. Google is the only one who has…

Are you saying that Google, Meta, Amazon, etc... can't do software? It's the bread and butter of these companies. The CUDA moat is important to hold off the likes of AMD, but hardware like TPUs for internal use or other big software makers is not a big hurdle. Of course Huang will lean on the software being key because he sees the hardware competition catching up.

Meta makes websites and apps. Historically, they haven't succeeded at lower-level development. A somewhat recent example was when they tried to make a custom OS for their VR headsets, completely failed, and had to continue using Android.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#843
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OpenAI doesn't have $500 billion in commitments lined up, it's promising to spend that much over 5 years... That's a helluva big difference than having $500B in revenue incoming.

Data centers take time to build. The capital investment to build these DCs is needed now in expectation that future revenue streams will pay for that capital.

That's not what OpenAI announced. They said initial spend would be $100B, and I'm sure until the ink is dry on each contract, that they can change their mind at any time. No business is going to be placing ironclad commitments four years out.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#844
post #818

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does it mean have agreed to lend them in a binding agreement that OpenAI can sue to enforce?

Yes. The capital is not needed immediately, but they have agreed to provide it if/when called upon in future.

This is highly unlikely. Imagine OpenAI struggling, and in year 4 of this "commitment" call upon the lenders to provide over $100B in capital. The lenders will definitely have recourse if the risk is too high. Otherwise this would simply be a commercial line of credit, or they would be investing the funds directly in OpenAI now.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#845
post #730

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My reading in between the lines is OpenAI's "GPT-5" is really a GPT-4 generation model. And this is aligned with it being unimpressive. Not the promised leap forward Altman promised.

The only real change I noticed is it self censoring more than GPT-4.

From what I can tell they just removed the psychosis component that was always telling you to be right.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#846
post #568
post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SemiAnalysis said it last week and AFAIK it wasn't denied. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/tpuv7-google-takes-a-s...

This is a really great breakdown. With TPUs seemingly more efficient and costing less overall, how does this play for Nvidia? What's to stop them from entering the TPU race with their $5 trillion valuation?

Why dig for gold when you are the gold standard for the shovel already?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#847

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> with no means of significant revenue generation. OpenAI will top $20 billion in ARR this year, which certainly seems like significant revenue generation. [1] [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/06/sam-altman-says-openai-will-...

No, they won't, fake numbers from his arse. The same way ChatGPT does not have 800million users.

Wait. Are you telling me chatgpt is not the fastest growing everything ever in the universe?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#848

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

anecdotal, but my wife wasn't interested in switching to claude from chatgpt. as far as she's concerned chatgpt knows her, and she's got her assistant perfectly tuned to her liking.

You can "transport" this brain/cortex by just asking the AI to export itself and what it knows in a format another AI would understand as import.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#849

OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expe…

What about OpenAI would rate a bailout? There's too much competition. If they ever do end up in a deep hole and plead for a rescue, I would imagine that gov will just force a sale of assets. Surely Google, MS and Amazon can make use of their infrastructure in exchange for taking on some portion of their debts.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#850

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

OpenAI has tons of funnels for their products. Azure’s AI smoke and mirrors offerings uses openAI behind the scenes, big with enterprise users (who has a lot of money)
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