But hey they dumped $6.4 billion on Jony Ive. Surely he'll solve all their problems.
OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
351–360 of 960 posts
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#352OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…
anecdotal, but my wife wasn't interested in switching to claude from chatgpt. as far as she's concerned chatgpt knows her, and she's got her assistant perfectly tuned to her liking.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#353Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s really even easier than that. I already do all my work on AWS and use Bedrock that hosts every popular model and its own except for OpenAIs closed source models. I have a reusable library that lets me choose between any of the models I choose to support or any new model in the same family that uses the same request format. Every project I’ve done, it’s a simple matter of changing a config setting and choosing a…
> Bedrock This sounds so enterprise. I've been wanting to talk to people that actually use it. Why use Bedrock instead of OpenRouter, Fal, etc.? Doesn't that tie you down to Amazon forever? Isn't the API worse? Aren't the p95 latencies worse? The costs higher?
Bedrock is a lot more than just a standard endpoint. Also, the security guarantees.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#354Earlier quoted context omitted.
it in't about taking eyes off the ball, it is about playing very different ball - they de-facto became commercial entity with short term plans/goals/targets/metrics and all the management games creeping in. Beating Google, such a large company who has been successfully playing that game for quarter of century is very hard, if not impossible until Google would make serious error itself. And pure tech-wise - they seem…
Google definitely made errors, but it looks like it got them out of its system early in the game. They've been killing it since the summer.
The moment you knew they were serious was when they pulled Jeff Dean in and paired him with Demis. That was, I imagine, a very expensive move to make internally, (rumors are Dean had wanted to retire / move on), and Demis had nearly unilateral control of his corner of the AI universe at Google for roughly a decade. We're seeing the results of that move right now.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#355Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s really even easier than that. I already do all my work on AWS and use Bedrock that hosts every popular model and its own except for OpenAIs closed source models. I have a reusable library that lets me choose between any of the models I choose to support or any new model in the same family that uses the same request format. Every project I’ve done, it’s a simple matter of changing a config setting and choosing a…
> Bedrock This sounds so enterprise. I've been wanting to talk to people that actually use it. Why use Bedrock instead of OpenRouter, Fal, etc.? Doesn't that tie you down to Amazon forever? Isn't the API worse? Aren't the p95 latencies worse? The costs higher?
on less vendor to vet, one less contract to negotiate, one less 3rd party system to administer. you're already locked into AWS anyway. integrates with other AWS services. access control is already figured out.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#356I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…
Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…
Can you give some concrete example of programming problem task GPT fails to solve?
Interested, because I’ve been getting pretty good results with different tasks using the Codex.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#357OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…
anecdotal, but my wife wasn't interested in switching to claude from chatgpt. as far as she's concerned chatgpt knows her, and she's got her assistant perfectly tuned to her liking.
ChatGPT is to AI as Facebook is to social media. OpenAI captured a significant number of users due to first-mover advantage, but that advantage is long gone now.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#358Earlier quoted context omitted.
> for these companies They’re absolutely going to get bailed out and socialize the losses somehow. They might just get a huge government contract instead of an explicit bailout, but they’ll weasel out of this one way or another and these huge circular deals are to ensure that.
This would trigger something that people in power would rather not trigger.
the only thing power is concerned about is China dominating American in AI, because of the military and economic edge it would give them. Future wars will be AI fighting against AI.
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#359OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expe…
Isn't the NVIDIA-TSMC duopoly the problem here?
The cost of these data centers and ongoing inference is mostly the outrageous cost of GPUs, no?
I don't understand why the entire industry isn't looking to diversify the GPU constraint so that the hardware makers drop prices.
Why no industry initiative to break NVIDIA's strangehold and next TSMC's?
Or are GPUs a small line item in the outrageous spend companies like OpenAI are committing to?
Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race
#360Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…
To be fair, I would get a ton of value out of someone selling dollars for 20 cents apiece. But ya, OAI is clearly making a ton of revenue. That doesn't mean it's a good business, though. Giving them a 20 year horizon, shareholders will be very upset unless the firm can deliver about a trillion in profit , not revenue, to justify the 100B (so far) in investment, and that would barely beat the long term s&p 500 average…
I'd be a little bit more nuanced:
I think there's something off with their plans right now: it's pretty clear at this point that they can't own the technological frontier, Google is just too close already and from a purely technological PoV they are much better suited to have the best tech in the medium term. (There's no moat and Google has way more data and compute available, and also tons of cash to burn without depending on external funding).
But ChatGPT is an insane brand and for most (free) customers I don't think model capabilities (aka “intelligence”) are that important. So if they stopped training frontier models right now and focus on driving their costs low by optimizing their inference compute budget while serving ads, they can make a lot of money from their user base.
But that would probably mean losing most of its paying customers over the long run (companies won't be buying mediocre token at a premium for long) and more importantly it would require abandoning the AGI bullshit narrative, which I'm not sure Altman is willing to do. (And even if he was, how to do that without collapsing from lack of liquidity due to investors feeling betrayed is an open question).