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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I strongly advise never using Google's Drive storage. They're known to scan all content, and to disable all access if even a single file is "problematic", often misclassified by a bot. If you do use the storage, do backup all your files, and be ready to lose access at any time, with no way to reach any intelligent human.

Which product do you recommend? OneDrive? Dropbox?

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#272
post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a $115b burn rate. They're toast if they can't figure out how to stay on top.

Could say that about any AI company that isn’t at the top as well

Google and Microsoft have existing major money printing businesses to keep their AI business afloat and burn money for a while. That's how Microsoft broke into gaming (and then squandered it years later for unrelated incompetence)

OpenAI doesn't have that.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course Google is mature enough that this particular failure mode probably won’t happen, but there may be other more concerning failure modes for individuals who are reliant on a broad swath of Google services. Diversity of tech companies is an important consideration for me, one that definitely outweighs one-time issues, especially in a field where credible competition is limited.

This is exactly the kind of failure Google is notorious for. Google has put me through their login purgatory multiple times where the only solution was to wait many days and try the same steps again until it works. I think it would be much easier to get this resolved with OpenAI than with Google.

I'm not trying to defend Google (shudder!), just trying to be helpful:

- Enabling 2fa in my accounts has solved this problem for me

- I hear that hardware security tokens are even better to get Google to not worry that you're an imposter, but I haven't done that myself

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#274
I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 months ago.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#275

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

Maybe? But you could have written this same thing in 1999 with OpenAI and Google replaced by Google and Yahoo, respectively.

And Google had profits - not just revenue - early on and wasn’t setting $10 on fire to have a $1 in revenue.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#276

OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expe…

most of them are non binding letters of intent, i don't think it's as trite as you put it

The government bailout part doesn't even kick in until they sink enough to need trillions of annual revenue.

Skepticism is easy.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#277

The real code red here is less that Google just one-upped OpenAI but that they demonstrated there’s no moat to be had here. Absent a major breakthrough all the major providers are just going to keep leapfrogging each other in the most expensive race to the bottom of all time. Good for tech, but a horrible business and financial picture for these companies.

Absolutely. I don't understand why investors are excited about getting into a negative-margin commodity. It makes zero sense. I was an OpenAI fan from GPT 3 to 4, but then Claude pulled ahead. Now Gemini is great as well, especially at analyzing long documents or entire codebases. I use a combination of all three (OpenAI, Anthropic & Google) with absolutely zero loyalty. I think the AGI true believers see it as a win…

It's the same reason for investing in every net-loss high-valuation tech startup of the past decade. They're hoping they'll magically turn into Google, Apple, Netflix, or some other wealthy tech company. But they forget that Google owns the ad market, Apple owns the high-end/lifestyle computer market, and Netflix owns tv/movie habit analytics.

Investors in AI just don't realize AI is a commodity. The AI companies' lies aren't helping (we will not reach AGI in our lifetimes). The bubble will burst if investors figure this out before they successfully pivot (and they're trying damn hard to pivot).

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#278

The real code red here is less that Google just one-upped OpenAI but that they demonstrated there’s no moat to be had here. Absent a major breakthrough all the major providers are just going to keep leapfrogging each other in the most expensive race to the bottom of all time. Good for tech, but a horrible business and financial picture for these companies.

So why did Google stock increase massively since about when Gemini 2.5 Pro was released, their first competitive model?

That’s not evidence of anything in and of itself. RIMs stock price was at its highest in 2009 two years after the iPhone came out.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Altman says that OpenAI will top $20 billion in ARR this year, which certainly seems like significant revenue generation. [1] fixed this for you

Can he safely lie about that? Or would that be a slam-dunk lawsuit against him? He's already got Elon Musk on his enemies list.

I am not a lawyer, but it is possible he can say whatever he wants without consequences to public because OAI is not a public company.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#280
post #258

Google literally publish the attention paper. Have people not been paying attention? Google has been the only company I’ve been watching that really understands what they are doing.

IMO Google struggles to productize things, so they sit on great ideas a while or do the wrong thing with them, but OpenAI really showed the way and Google can probably take it from here.
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