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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#451

Post by Planktonne »

ori_b wrote: post #249
Animats wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> advertising, AI agents for health and shopping, Um. - Advertising. "We'll get back to working on your problem in a moment, but first, a word from our sponsor, NordVPN." It's not a good fit. - Health. Sounds like unlicensed medical practice. That will require a big bribe to Trump. - Shopping. Can pretty much do that now, in that ChatGPT can call Google. Will Google let OpenAI call Google Search?

Advertising is going to be nothing like that. Here's an example where I experimented with adding a pre-prompt to push Nike products. Imagine that these products have direct links, so that OpenAI can track clickthrough rates: >> What are the best barefoot running shoes? ChatGPT said: Barefoot running shoes are designed to give a more natural running experience, with minimal cushioning and a zero-drop sole to mimic bar…

> What are the best barefoot running shoes?

Immediately followed by

> [...] While not technically classified as "barefoot" shoes

Your own example here shows the AI immediately giving an answer that is clearly incorrect, just to push a product.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#452

Post by mikepurvis »

jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

I noticed this recently when I asked it whether I should play Indiana Jones on my PS5 or PC with a 9070 XT. It assumed I had made a typo until I clarified, then it went off to the internet and came back telling me what a sick rig I have.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#453

Post by Terr_ »

lukan wrote: post #197
HPsquared wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It'll be hard to separate them out from the block of prose. It's not like Google results where you can highlight the sponsored ones.

Of course you can. As long as the model itself is not filled with ads, every agentic processing on top can be customly made. One block the true content. The next block the visually marked ad content "personalized" by a different model based on the user profile. That is not scary to me. What will be scary is the thought, that the lines get more and more blurry and people already emotionally invested in their ChatGPT t…

There's a big gulf between "it could be done with some safety and ethics by completely isolating ads from the LLM portion", versus "they will always do that because all companies involved will behave with unprecedented levels of integrity."

What I fear is:

1. Some code will watch the interaction and assign topics/interests to the user and what's being discussed.

2. That data will be used for "real time bidding" of ad-directives from competing companies.

3. It will insert some content into the stream, hidden from the user, like "Bot, look for an opportunity to subtly remind the user that {be sure to drink your Ovaltine}."

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#454

Post by octoberfranklin »

MikeTheGreat wrote: post #444

(My apologies if this was already asked - this thread is huge and Find-In-Page-ing for variations of "pre-train", "pretrain", and "train" turned up nothing about this. If this was already asked I'd super-appreciate a pointer to the discussion :) ) Genuine question: How is it possible for OpenAI to NOT successfully pre-train a model? I understand it's very difficult, but they've already successfully done this and they…

You don't train the next model by starting with the previous one.

A company's ML researchers are constantly improving model architecture. When it's time to train the next model, the "best" architecture is totally different from the last one. So you have to train from scratch (mostly... you can keep some small stuff like the embeddings).

The implication here is that they screwed up bigly on the model architecture, and the end result was significantly worse than the mid-2024 model, so they didn't deploy it.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#455

Post by __turbobrew__ »

greedo wrote: post #256
lateforwork wrote: post #228

OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expe…

OpenAI doesn't have $500 billion in commitments lined up, it's promising to spend that much over 5 years... That's a helluva big difference than having $500B in revenue incoming.

Data centers take time to build. The capital investment to build these DCs is needed now in expectation that future revenue streams will pay for that capital.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#456

Post by cherioo »

MikeTheGreat wrote: post #444

(My apologies if this was already asked - this thread is huge and Find-In-Page-ing for variations of "pre-train", "pretrain", and "train" turned up nothing about this. If this was already asked I'd super-appreciate a pointer to the discussion :) ) Genuine question: How is it possible for OpenAI to NOT successfully pre-train a model? I understand it's very difficult, but they've already successfully done this and they…

GPT4.5 was allegedly such a pre-train. It just didn’t perform good enough to announce and product it as such.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#457

Post by encomiast »

MikeTheGreat wrote: post #444

(My apologies if this was already asked - this thread is huge and Find-In-Page-ing for variations of "pre-train", "pretrain", and "train" turned up nothing about this. If this was already asked I'd super-appreciate a pointer to the discussion :) ) Genuine question: How is it possible for OpenAI to NOT successfully pre-train a model? I understand it's very difficult, but they've already successfully done this and they…

I’m not sure what ‘successfully’ means in this context. If it means training a model that is noticeably better than previous models, it’s not hard to see how that is challenging.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#458

Post by margorczynski »

asdfman123 wrote: post #427
felixfurtak wrote: post #213

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

I know it's been said before but it's slightly insane they're trying to compete on a hot new tech with a company with 1) a top notch reputation for AI and 2) the largest money printer that has ever existed on the planet. Feel like the end result would always be that while Google is slow to adjust, once they're in the race they're in it it.

The problem for Google is that there is no sensible way to monetize this tech and it undercuts their main money source which is search.

On top of that the Chinese seem to be hellbent to destroy any possible moat the US companies might create by flooding the market with SOTA open-source models.

Although this tech might be good for software companies in general - it does reduce the main cost they have which is personnel. But in the long run Google will need to reinvent itself or die.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#459

Post by aftbit »

dist-epoch wrote: post #229
aftbit wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same thing is true for a _ton_ of tech products. My home internet plan easily gives me more than $1000 in value per month. My cell phone hardware probably gives me $2000+ in value over even a short 2 year life. Customers still tend to choose the cheapest option that meets requirements.

Home internet and cell phones are fungible. AI is not. If Internet would suddenly become $10k a month, maybe you would change country, or move to an office. If AI would suddenly become $10k you can't do anything about it.

If AI suddenly became $10k/month or even $1k/month, I would stop using it. It just doesn't provide that much value to me. If it did, I would probably find a way to use local models or some other approach to drive the cost down.

If home internet became $1k/month, I would pay it. $10k, no - I just don't have the cashflow to support that.

If I had to choose one of the three to give up, AI, home internet, or cellphone, I would give up AI. If I had to choose two, I'd give up my cell plan. Home internet is worth a ton of value and dollars to me.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#460

Post by hdgvhicv »

miltonlost wrote: post #284
twothreeone wrote: post #174

The way I've experienced "Code Red" is mostly as a euphemism for "on-going company-wide lack of focus" and a band-aid for mid-level management having absolutely no clue how to meaningfully make progress, upper management panicking, and ultimately putting engineers and ICs on the spot to bear the brunt of that organizational mess. Interestingly enough, apart from Google, I've never seen an organization take the actual…

Your proper steps are also missing out on firing the higher level executives. But then new ones would be hired, a re-org will occur, and another Code Red will occur in a few months

Prepare three envelopes
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