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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#771

Post by fzzzy »

Davidzheng wrote: post #578
mvkel wrote: post #550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a rumor, it's confirmed by OpenAI. All "models" since 4o are actually just optimizations in prompting and a new routing engine. The actual -model- you are using with 5.1 is 4. Nothing has been pre-trained from scratch since 4o. Their own press releases confirm this. They call 5 their best new "ai system", not a new model https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5/

I don't think that counts as confirmation. 4.5 we know was a new base-model. I find it very very unlikely the base model of 4 (or 4o) is in gpt5. Also 4o is a different base model from 4 right? it's multimodal etc. Pretty sure people have leaked sizes etc and I don't think it matches up.

Gpt-5 is a “model router”

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#773

Post by barrell »

nbardy wrote: post #617
RossBencina wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The SemiAnalysis article that you linked to stated: "OpenAI’s leading researchers have not completed a successful full-scale pre-training run that was broadly deployed for a new frontier model since GPT-4o in May 2024, highlighting the significant technical hurdle that Google’s TPU fleet has managed to overcome." Given the overall quality of the article, that is an uncharacteristically convoluted sentence. At the ris…

This is misleading. They had 4.5 which was a new scaled up training run. It was a huge model and only served to pro users, but the biggest models are always used as teacher models for smaller models. Thats how you do distillation. It would be stupid to not use the biggest model you have in distillation and a waste since they have the weights. The would have taken some time to calculate the efficiency gains of pretrai…

My understanding of 4.5 was that it was released long, long after the initial training run finished. It also had an older cutoff date than the newer 4o models

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#774

Post by kriro »

jpalomaki wrote: post #356
p1necone wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

Can you give some concrete example of programming problem task GPT fails to solve? Interested, because I’ve been getting pretty good results with different tasks using the Codex.

Library/API conflicts are the biggest pain point for me usually. Especially breaking changes. RLlib (currently 2.41.0) and Gymnasium (currently 0.29.0+) have ended in circles many times for me because they tend to be out of sync (for multi-agent environments). My go to test now is a simple hello world type card game like war, competitive multi-agent with rllib and gymnasium (pettingzoo tends to cause even more issues).

Claude Sonnet 4.5 was able to figure out a way to resolve it eventually (around 7 fixes) and I let it create an rllib.md with all the fixes and pitfalls and am curious if feeding this file to the next experiment will lead to a one-shot. GPT-5 struggled more but haven't tried Codex on this yet so it's not exactly fair.

All done with Copilot in agent mode, just prompting, no specs or anything.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#775

Post by fzzzy »

smj-edison wrote: post #686
Aurornis wrote: post #622

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can actually use Claude Code (and presumably the other tools) on non-code projects, too. If you launch claude code in a directory of files you want to work on, like CSVs or other data, you can ask it to do planning and analysis tasks, editing, and other things. It's fun to experiment with, though for obvious reasons I prefer to operate on a copy of the data I'm using rather than let Claude Code go wild.

Side note from someone who just used Claude Code today for the first time: Claude Code is a TUI, so you can run it in any folder/with any IDE and it plays along nicely. I thought it was just another vscode clone, so I was pleasantly surprised that it didn't try to take over my entire workflow.

They also have a vscode extension that compares with github copilot now, just so you know.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#776

Post by fzzzy »

shridharxp wrote: post #653
echelon wrote: post #646

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google didn't raise at a $500 billion valuation. The 25x revenue multiple wouldn't be so bad if they weren't burning so much cash on R&D and if they actually had a moat. Google caught up quick, the Chinese are spinning up open source models left and right, and the world really just isn't ready to adopt AI everywhere yet. We're in the premature/awkward phase. They're just too early, and the AGI is just too far away. D…

There is no moat in selling/renting AI models. They are a commoditized product now. I can't imagine with what thought process did investors poured in such money on OpenAI.

Tulip mania is a mania because it short circuits thought.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#777

Post by jimbohn »

jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

I wonder if the failures to pretrain are the result of our understanding of neural networks being more akin to alchemy rather than chemistry

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#778

Post by fzzzy »

nodja wrote: post #449
mr_00ff00 wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a pre-training run?

Pre-training is just training, it got the name because most models have a post-training stage so to differentiate people call it pre-training. Pre-training: You train on a vast amount of data, as varied and high quality as possible, this will determine the distribution the model can operate with, so LLMs are usually trained on a curated dataset of the whole internet, the output of the pre-training is usually called t…

- Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR): instead of using a grader model you use a domain that can be deterministically graded, such as math problems.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#779

Post by embedding-shape »

kovezd wrote: post #557
embedding-shape wrote: post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is relevant how? That interview is 1.5 hours, not something you just casually drop a link to and say "here, listen to this to even understand what point I was trying to make"

You can now ask Gemini, about a video. Very useful!

That's my reply. I assume everyone who wants to know my point has access to a LLM that can summarize videos.

Is this how internet communication is supposed to be now?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#780

Post by zurfer »

cmiles8 wrote: post #136

The real code red here is less that Google just one-upped OpenAI but that they demonstrated there’s no moat to be had here. Absent a major breakthrough all the major providers are just going to keep leapfrogging each other in the most expensive race to the bottom of all time. Good for tech, but a horrible business and financial picture for these companies.

It drives me a bit crazy when people say OpenAI has no moat.

Yes, companies like Google can catch up and overtake them, but a moat is merely making it hard and expensive.

99.999.. perc of companies can't dream of competing with OpenAI.

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