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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#551

For regular consumers, Gemini's AI pro plan is a tough one to beat. The chat quality has gotten much better, I am able to share my plan with a couple more people in my family leading to proper individual chat histories, I get 2 TB of extra storage (which is also sharable), plus some really nice stuff like NotebookLM, which has been amazing for doing research. Veo/Nanobanana are nice bonuses. It's easily worth the mon…

Gemini also will answer most queries where ChatGpt won't do a lot of things. Example: "Create an image of Snow white". This will give the stand "Violates our content policy" even though the story was written hundreds of years ago. You can even point out the story is in the public domain and it still won't do it.

I remember when it wouldn't even give me the lyrics to the star spangled banner. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44832990#44833365

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#552
Most discussion focused on capabilities. But I wonder does OpenAI's "make a even big and costly model" strategy even work in long term? They are already losing money at current size. Unless we have some break though in chip efficiency.(which didn't seem to be likely for now) They are only going to loss even more.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#554

Last week there we had a customer request that landed in our support on a feature that I partially wrote and wrote a pile of public documentation on. Support engineer ran customer query through Claude (trained on our public and internal docs) and it very, very confidently made a bunch of stuff up in the response. It was quite plausible sounding and it would have been great if it worked that way, but it didn't. While…

All depends on the tasks and the prompting engineers.

Even with your intelligence you would need years to deliver something like this: https://github.com/7mind/jopa

The outcome will be better for sure, but you won't do anything like that in a couple of weeks. Even if you have a team of 10. Or 50.

And I'm not an LLM proponent. Just being an empirical realist.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

NME at all - 5.1 codex has been the best by far.

By my tests (https://github.com/7mind/jopa) Gemini 3 is somewhat better than Claude with Opus 4.5. Both obliterate Codex with 5.1

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be a little bit more nuanced: I think there's something off with their plans right now: it's pretty clear at this point that they can't own the technological frontier, Google is just too close already and from a purely technological PoV they are much better suited to have the best tech in the medium term. (There's no moat and Google has way more data and compute available, and also tons of cash to burn without de…

Being an insane brand means literally nothing if people can trivially switch to competitors, which they can. There isn't even a tenth of enough money if you group together all of advertising. Like, the entire industry. Ads is a bad, bad plan that wont work. Advertising is also extremely overvalued. And even at it's overvalued price tag, it's nowhere near enough.

People could trivially switch their search engine to Bing or Yahoo, but they don't.

If ads are so overpriced, how big is your short position on google? Also ads are extremely inefficient in terms of conversion. Ads rendered by an intelligent, personalized system will be OOM more efficient, negating most of the "overvalue".

I'm not saying they should serve ads. It's a terrible strategy for other reasons.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dylan Patel joined Dwarkesh recently to interview Satya Nadella: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/satya-nadella-2

And this is relevant how? That interview is 1.5 hours, not something you just casually drop a link to and say "here, listen to this to even understand what point I was trying to make"

You can now ask Gemini, about a video. Very useful!

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#558
post #317

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

SemiAnalysis said it last week and AFAIK it wasn't denied. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/tpuv7-google-takes-a-s...

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

I am a novice programmer -- I have programmed for 35+ years now but I build and lose the skills moving between coder to manager to sales -- multiple times. Fresh IC since last week again :) I have coded starting with Fortran, RPG and COBOL and I have also coded Java and Scala. I know modern architecture but haven't done enough grunt work to make it work or to debug (and fix) a complex problem. Needless to say sometim…

My problem with Gemini is how token hungry it is. It does a good job but it ends up being more expensive than any other model because it's so yappy. It sits there and argues with itself and outputs the whole movie.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I opened up the Gemini app and asked: Who are the Dallas Stars playing tonight? Is there anyone that will be out of the lineup for the Stars? What have their recent injuries been like? Can you get the current score? It's response: The Dallas Stars are playing the New York Rangers tonight, Tuesday, December 2, 2025, at Madison Square Garden. Here is the information available regarding the rest of your questions: Out o…

The consumer apps use RAG and traditional search to give the LLM recent information in the prompt when it answers your query. This basically bridges over the knowledge gap between the end of training and today.

I'm fully aware, I'm just wanting to point out to people that the actual AI apps they'll use can and do return recent information due to integrations like that. Lots of people think AI can only answer stuff in its training set, but it can answer anything from whatever data you hand to it, including any data on the internet.

Lots of AI tools can easily answer "who won the basketball game last night".

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