OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

Post by Tycho » Tue, Dec 02, 2025, 10:38 PM UTC

qnleigh wrote: post #322

cmiles8 wrote: post #136

The real code red here is less that Google just one-upped OpenAI but that they demonstrated there’s no moat to be had here. Absent a major breakthrough all the major providers are just going to keep leapfrogging each other in the most expensive race to the bottom of all time. Good for tech, but a horrible business and financial picture for these companies.

Maybe there's no tangible moat still, but did Gemini 3's exceptional performance actually funnel users away from ChatGPT? The typical Hacker News reader might be aware of its good performance on benchmarks, but did this convert a significant number of ChatGPT users to Gemini? It's not obvious to me either way.

Post by abixb » Tue, Dec 02, 2025, 10:39 PM UTC

mr_00ff00 wrote: post #396

jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

What is a pre-training run?

Post by CamperBob2 » Tue, Dec 02, 2025, 10:39 PM UTC

alecco wrote: post #317

jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

SemiAnalysis said it last week and AFAIK it wasn't denied. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/tpuv7-google-takes-a-s...

Post by jfb » Tue, Dec 02, 2025, 10:41 PM UTC

bgirard wrote: post #290

stack_framer wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can generate $20 billion in ARR this year too! I just need you to give me $100 billion and allow me to sell each of your dollars for 0.2 dollars.

It's a fun trope to repeat but that's not what OpenAI is doing. I get a ton of value from ChatGPT and Codex from my subscription. As long as the inference is not done at a lost this analogy doesn't hold. They're not paying me to use it. They are generating output that is very valuable to me. Much more than my subscription cost. I've been able to help setup cross app automation for my partner's business, remodel my ho…

Post by inquirerGeneral » Tue, Dec 02, 2025, 10:45 PM UTC

herpdyderp wrote: post #379

p1necone wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

On the contrary, I cannot use the top Gemini and Claude models because their outputs are so out place and hard to integrate with my code bases. The GPT 5 models integrate with my code base's existing patterns seamlessly.