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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#321

Post by nickff »

jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

I recall reading that Google had similar 'delay' issues when crawling the web in 2000 and early 2001, but they managed to survive. That said, OpenAI seems much less differentiated (now) than Google was back then, so this may be a much riskier situation.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#322

Post by qnleigh »

cmiles8 wrote: post #136

The real code red here is less that Google just one-upped OpenAI but that they demonstrated there’s no moat to be had here. Absent a major breakthrough all the major providers are just going to keep leapfrogging each other in the most expensive race to the bottom of all time. Good for tech, but a horrible business and financial picture for these companies.

Maybe there's no tangible moat still, but did Gemini 3's exceptional performance actually funnel users away from ChatGPT? The typical Hacker News reader might be aware of its good performance on benchmarks, but did this convert a significant number of ChatGPT users to Gemini? It's not obvious to me either way.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#324

Post by felixfurtak »

searls wrote: post #305
felixfurtak wrote: post #213

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

It would be funny if OpenAI turns for-profit, faceplants, and then finds new life (as Mozilla did) as a non-profit sharing its tools for free.

This is pretty much all that OpenAI is at the moment.

Mozilla is a non-profit that is only sustained by the generous wealthy benefactor (Google) to give the illusion that there is competition in the browser market.

OpenAI is a non-profit funded by a generous wealthy benefactor (Microsoft).

Ideas of IPO and profitability are all just pipe dreams in Altmans imagination.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#326

Post by elAhmo »

felixfurtak wrote: post #324
searls wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be funny if OpenAI turns for-profit, faceplants, and then finds new life (as Mozilla did) as a non-profit sharing its tools for free.

This is pretty much all that OpenAI is at the moment. Mozilla is a non-profit that is only sustained by the generous wealthy benefactor (Google) to give the illusion that there is competition in the browser market. OpenAI is a non-profit funded by a generous wealthy benefactor (Microsoft). Ideas of IPO and profitability are all just pipe dreams in Altmans imagination.

> Mozilla is a non-profit that is only sustained by the generous wealthy benefactor (Google) to give the illusion that there is competition in the browser market.

Good way of phrasing things. Kinda sad to read this, I tried to react with 'wait there is competition in the browser market', but it is not a great argument to make - without money for using Google as a default search engine, Mozilla would effectively collapse.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#327

Post by elAhmo »

nfRfqX5n wrote: post #241
cheald wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a $115b burn rate. They're toast if they can't figure out how to stay on top.

Could say that about any AI company that isn’t at the top as well

You can say it about the AI companies, but Google or Microsoft are far from AI companies.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#328

Post by poemxo »

ridgeguy wrote: post #212

I have (rather, had) a paid subscription to ChatGPT. I work at my home in the Sierra foothills, and on alternate weeks in my office in San Jose. Last month, I used ChatGPT while in SJ. I needed a function that's only available to paying customers, and which had worked well from my home. ChatGPT refused to recognize me as a paid-up customer. I had correct login creds + ancillary identifying info, but no go. Over the c…

I would be surprised if bad customer experience handling were the reason OpenAI loses to Google. It's not like Google is known for their customer experience.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#329

Post by jazzyjackson »

lanthissa wrote: post #203
achow wrote: post #146

WSJ: Altman said OpenAI would be pushing back work on other initiatives, such as advertising, AI agents for health and shopping, and a personal assistant called Pulse. These plus working with Jony Ive on hardware, makes it sound like they took their eyes off the ball.

if you want to compete with google it seems like ad space is the single most important thing to push out quickly. no matter what openai does if its not accepting customers the ad budgets will flow to meta amaz and goog and be used as weapons against it.

If their endgame is competing with other ad brokers, what was all that talk of AGI for?

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#330

Post by BeFlatXIII »

lateforwork wrote: post #228

OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expe…

I'm hoping for Congressional gridlock to save us from bailing out a cascading failure. The harder it hits, the better.
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