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OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

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Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#381

Post by machomaster »

par wrote: post #151
TechRemarker wrote: post #84

Heard all the news how Gemini 3 is passing everyone on benchmarks, so quickly tested and still find it a far cry from ChatGPT in real world use when testing questions on both platforms. But importantly the ChatGPT app experience at least for iPhone/Mac users is drastically superior vs Google which feels very Google still. So Gemini would have to be drastically better answer wise than ChatGPT to lure users from a bett…

Yeah, hate to say but for me a big thing is i still couldn't separate my Gemini chats into folders. I had ChatGPT export some profiles and history and moved it into Gemini, and 1) when Gemini gave me answers i was more pleased but 2) Gemini was a bit more rigorous on guard rails, which seems a bit overly cautious. I was asking some pretty basic non-controversial stuff.

If I research anything close to controversial, I use Grok. Its no-censorship attitude is great.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#382

Post by tofuahdude »

bibimsz wrote: post #352
felixfurtak wrote: post #213

OpenAI is basically just Netscape at this point. An innovative product with no means of significant revenue generation. One one side it's up against large competitors with an already established user base and product line that can simply bundle their AI offerings into those products. Google will do just what Microsoft did with Internet Explorer and bundle Gemini in for 'Free' with their already other profitable produ…

anecdotal, but my wife wasn't interested in switching to claude from chatgpt. as far as she's concerned chatgpt knows her, and she's got her assistant perfectly tuned to her liking.

Same situation over here. Multiple family members only know chatgpt / think that chatgpt knows them and have never heard of the competitors.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#383

Post by nickysielicki »

nextworddev wrote: post #373
jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

Don’t forget SemiAnalysis’s founder Dylan Patel is supposedly roommates with Anthropics RL tech lead Sholto..

The fundamental problem with bubbles like this, is that you get people like this who are able to take advantage of the The Gell-Mann amnesia effect, except the details that they’re wrong about are so niche that there’s a vanishingly small group of people who are qualified to call them out on it, and there’s simultaneously so much more attention on what they say because investors and speculators are so desperate and anxious for new information.

I followed him on Twitter. He said some very interesting things, I thought. Then he started talking about the niche of ML/AI I work near, and he was completely wrong about it. I became enlightened.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#384

Post by findjashua »

p1necone wrote: post #334
jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

NME at all - 5.1 codex has been the best by far.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#385

Post by logicchains »

p1necone wrote: post #334
jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

I find for difficult questions math and design questions GPT5 tends to produce better answers than Claude and Gemini.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#386

Post by kilroy123 »

zingababba wrote: post #74
trymas wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

…someone even wrote a book about this. Something about “mythical men”… :D

Needs an update re: mythical AI.

Seriously I think this is needed. The industry has become delusional.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#387

Post by manmal »

jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

That would explain why it’s so bad with new Swift features and more recent ast-grep rules.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#388

Post by nateglims »

qnleigh wrote: post #322
cmiles8 wrote: post #136

The real code red here is less that Google just one-upped OpenAI but that they demonstrated there’s no moat to be had here. Absent a major breakthrough all the major providers are just going to keep leapfrogging each other in the most expensive race to the bottom of all time. Good for tech, but a horrible business and financial picture for these companies.

Maybe there's no tangible moat still, but did Gemini 3's exceptional performance actually funnel users away from ChatGPT? The typical Hacker News reader might be aware of its good performance on benchmarks, but did this convert a significant number of ChatGPT users to Gemini? It's not obvious to me either way.

I think the theory is if you get to that point, it's already over.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#389

Post by Tycho »

greedo wrote: post #256
lateforwork wrote: post #228

OpenAI has already lined up enormous long-term commitments — over $500 billion through initiatives like Stargate for U.S. data centers, $250 billion in spending on Microsoft Azure cloud services, and tens of billions on AMD’s plan to deliver 6 GW of Instinct GPUs. Meanwhile, Oracle has financed its role in Stargate with at least $18 billion in corporate bonds plus another $9.6 billion in bank loans, and analysts expe…

OpenAI doesn't have $500 billion in commitments lined up, it's promising to spend that much over 5 years... That's a helluva big difference than having $500B in revenue incoming.

Commitments here means money that people have agreed to lend them in future.

Re: OpenAI declares 'code red' as Google catches up in AI race

#390

Post by kshacker »

p1necone wrote: post #334
jdoliner wrote: post #274

I've seen a rumor going around that OpenAI hasn't had a successful pre-training run since mid 2024. This seemed insane to me but if you give ChatGPT 5.1 a query about current events and instruct it not to use the internet it will tell you its knowledge cutoff is June 2024. Not sure if maybe that's just the smaller model or what. But I don't think it's a good sign to get that from any frontier model today, that's 18 m…

Every so often I try out a GPT model for coding again, and manage to get tricked by the very sparse conversation style into thinking it's great for a couple of days (when it says nothing and then finishes producing code with a 'I did x, y and z' with no stupid 'you're absolutely' right sucking up and it works, it feels very good). But I always realize it's just smoke and mirrors - the actual quality of the code and t…

I am a novice programmer -- I have programmed for 35+ years now but I build and lose the skills moving between coder to manager to sales -- multiple times. Fresh IC since last week again :) I have coded starting with Fortran, RPG and COBOL and I have also coded Java and Scala. I know modern architecture but haven't done enough grunt work to make it work or to debug (and fix) a complex problem. Needless to say sometimes my eyes glaze over the code.

And I write some code for my personal enjoyment, and I gave it to Claude 6-8 months back for improvement, it gave me a massive change log and it was quite risky so abandoned it.

I tried this again with Gemini last week, I was more prepared and asked it to improve class by class, and for whatever reasons I got better answers -- changed code, with explanations, and when I asked it to split the refactor in smaller steps, it did so. Was a joy working on this over the thanksgiving holidays. It could break the changes in small pieces, talk through them as I evolved concepts learned previously, took my feedback and prioritization, and also gave me nuanced explanation of the business objectives I was trying to achieve.

This is not to downplay claude, that is just the sequence of events narration. So while it may or may not work well for experienced programmers, it is such a helpful tool for people who know the domain or the concepts (or both) and struggle with details, since the tool can iron out a lot of details for you.

My goal now is to have another project for winter holidays and then think through 4-6 hour AI assisted refactors over the weekends. Do note that this is a project of personal interest so not spending weekends for the big man.

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