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Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

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Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nonsense, it would force vertical de- integration. Chip fabs used to be like book publishers; you don't have to own a printing press to be an author. Carver Mead even described his vision of the industry that way. Nowadays you have to get your cell libraries and a large chunk of your toolchain from the fab. Of course it's laundered through cadence+synopsys, but it's still coming from the fab. You have to buy your mas…

> Chip fabs used to be like book publishers; I can still make a book like that in my basement. People do this as a hobby now. You can still build chips like that in your garage. People do this as a hobby now. These things DO NOT SCALE... you cant have 10,000 people running printing presses in their basement to crank out the NYT every day. A modern chip fab has more in common with the printer for the NYT than it does…

Complexity of the fab processes is isn't what the parent was talking about. They're talking about the major changes in the relationship between fabless semiconductor companies and commercial foundries.

The complexity of actual fabrication was always, and still is, entirely within the foundry. But in the early days of that model, designs could be more easily handed off at the logical level, leaving the physical design to back end companies, which makes designs much more portable between foundries. (The publisher analogy.) What's changed is that the complexity of physical design has exploded, and you can't make the handoff at nearly as high a level, and there is much more work that depends directly on the specific process you are targeting. Much more work at the physical level falls to the fabless semi companies. So it is much more work to retarget a design to a different foundry or process.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think I’m proposing anything like the Soviet system?

No? I'm saying that power concentration is pretty much unavoidable. The question is more about what they can do with that power. I suspect that people getting more power through wealth in the modern world is better than people concentrating power through politics.

> I'm saying that power concentration is pretty much unavoidable.

It's avoidable by formalizing the execution of power. The head of state is very powerful, but he can't create laws or anything. That all needs to be done be the parliament, which is several hundred people.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#363
post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I think taxes on the very wealthy should be so high that billionaires can't happen. The usual reasons are either about raising revenue or are vague ideas about inequality. It doesn't raise enough revenue to matter, and inequality is a fairly weak justification by itself. But the power concentration is a strong reason. That level of wealth is incompatible with democracy. Money is power, and when someone ac…

> But the power concentration is a strong reason. A centralized authority capable of so severely restricting the economic freedom of the most powerful people implies a far greater concentration of power than the one you're fighting against. You're proposing to cure the common cold with AIDS.

> A centralized authority capable of so severely restricting the economic freedom of the most powerful people implies a far greater concentration of power

Yes. That's the idea. Make the largest concentration of power an elected body auditable by the commons and whose actions are formalized by a bunch of rules, that they can choose, but still need to stick to.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#364
post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A LOT of businesses learned during Covid they can make more money by permanently reducing output and jacking prices. We might be witnessing the end times of economies of scale.

The idea is someone else comes in that's happy to eat their lunch by undercutting them. Unfortunately, we're probably limited to China doing that at this point as a lot of the existing players have literally been fined for price fixing before. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_price_fixing_scandal

It seems more likely that someone else comes in and either colludes with the people who are screwing us to get a piece of the action or gets bought out by one of the big companies who started all this. Since the rare times companies get caught they only get weak slaps on the wrist where they only pay a fraction of what they made in profits (basically just the US demanding their cut) I don't have much faith things will improve any time soon.

Even China has no reason to reduce prices much for memory sold to the US when they know we have no choice but to buy at the prices already set by the cartel. I expect that if China does start making memory they'll sell it cheap within China and export it at much higher prices. Maybe we'll get a black market for cheap DRAM smuggled out of China though.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#365
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every corporation is a (not so) little pocket of centrally planned economy. The only saving grace is that it can die and others will scoop up released resources. When country level planned economy dies, people die and resources get destroyed.

> Every corporation is a (not so) little pocket of centrally planned economy. This is confused. Here is how classical economists would frame it: a firm chooses how much to produce based on its cost structure and market prices, expanding production until marginal cost equals marginal revenue. This is price guided production optimization, not central planning. The dominant criticism of central planning is trying to set…

> This is confused. Here is how classical economists would frame it: a firm chooses how much to produce based on its cost structure and market prices, expanding production until marginal cost equals marginal revenue. This is price guided production optimization, not central planning.

That's the case in a healthy competitive market. Once you have a monopoly or an oligopoly, you get into central planning territory.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s 3 or 4 places where the commenter just glitches out. Sounds like they’re using a transcription tool or something

It’s telling that the comment is highly upvoted (as I write this comment, anyway) despite being incoherent and incomplete in multiple places. I guess being generically angry and complaining about popular targets like OpenAI is an easy way to earn upvotes from visitors who don’t actually read, just scan comments for keywords and vibes.

It's complete enough for me (and others I guess) to form a constructive argument.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#367

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

how is that market failure??? this is literally market of supply and demand at its core

It is the market working as expected, but it still failed to allocate money diversely.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#368
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its a bit of a shame these AI GPUs don't actually have displayport/hdmi output ports because they would make for nice cheap and powerful gaming GPUs with a lot of VRAM, they would potentially be really good graphics cards. Will just have to settle for insanely cheap second hand DDR5 and NVMe drives I guess.

AI GPUs suck for gaming, I have seen a video from a guy playing Red Dead Redemption 2 on a H100 at a whooping 8 FPS! That's after some hacks, because otherwise it wouldn't run at all. AI GPUs are stripped away of most things display-related to make room for more compute cores. So in theory, they could "work", but there are bottlenecks making that compute power irrelevant for gaming, even if they had a display output.

So there aren't actually GPUs, but more like some other architecture for CPUs.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#369

I mentioned this previously in a thread about node sizes and got down voted for it, but I stand by my opinion: the rest of the world ie normal people need China to become competitive in chip manufacturing. Without that competition, everyday consumers are going to get priced out of the market by major corporations. We have reached a point in CPU technology where newer tech is no longer automatically cheaper and faster…

Except a lot of other people don't live in countries that are allied with Chinas vision. We need more competition among our allies, not have the only competition from our enemy.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last night, while writing a LaTeX article, with Ollama running for other purposes, Firefox with its hundreds of tabs, multiple PDF files open, my laptop's memory usage spiked up to 80GB RAM usage... And I was happy to have 128GB. The spike was probably due to some process stuck in an effing loop, but the process consuming more and more RAM didn't have any impact on the system's responsiveness, and I could calmly quit…

Firefox is particularly good at having lots of tabs open and not using tons of memory. $ ~/dev/mozlz4-tool/target/release/mozlz4-tool \ "$(find ~/Library/Application\ Support/Firefox/Profiles/ -name recovery.jsonlz4 | head -1)" | \ jq -r '[.windows[].tabs | length] | add' 5524 Activity monitor claims firefox is using 3.1GB of ram. Real memory size: 2.43 GB Virtual memory size: 408.30 GB Shared memory size: 746.5 MB P…

In my experience firefox is "pretty good" about having lots of tabs and windows open if you don't mind it crashing every week or two.
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