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Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

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61–70 of 449 posts

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#61

Well, patience as a consumer might pay off in the next year or so when the music stops and hyperscalers are forced to dump their inventories. There still isn't a clear path to profitability for any of these AI products and the capital expenditure has been enormous.

Its a bit of a shame these AI GPUs don't actually have displayport/hdmi output ports because they would make for nice cheap and powerful gaming GPUs with a lot of VRAM, they would potentially be really good graphics cards. Will just have to settle for insanely cheap second hand DDR5 and NVMe drives I guess.

I wouldn't mind my own offline Gemini or ChatGPT 5. But even if the hardware and model were free, I don't know how I'd afford the electricity.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#62

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

Going to be awesome tho when OpenAI et al fail because the market is going to be flooded with cheap parts.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#63

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

It is a weird form of centralized planning. Except there's no election to get on to the central committee, it's like in the Soviet era where you had to run in the right circles and have sway in them. There's too much group-think in the executive class. Too much forced adoption of AI, too much bandwagon hopping. The return-to-office fad is similar, a bunch of executives following the mandates of their board, all becau…

how is this centralized planning? It’s a corporate decision making operating in a free market to optimize for what majority shareholders want (though the majority of shares are owned by few).

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need better antitrust and anti-monopoly enforcement. Break up the biggest companies, and then they'll have to actually participate in markets.

This was Lina Khan's big thing, and I'd argue that our current administration is largely a result of Silicon Valkey no longer being able to get exits in the form or mergers and IPOs. Perhaps a better approach to anti-monopoly and anti-trust is possible, but I'm not sure anybody knows what that is. Khan was very well regarded and I don't know anybody who's better at it. Another approach would be a wealth and income ta…

a better approach might be to farming out shares to stakeholders. that seems a lot more dynamic and self-correcting than periodic taxation battles after the fact

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#65
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need better antitrust and anti-monopoly enforcement. Break up the biggest companies, and then they'll have to actually participate in markets.

I think a better solution is exponential tax on a company size. I.e. once a company starts to earn above, say, 1 billion, it will be taxed by income by ever increasing amount. Or put it another way, use taxes to break the power law and winner takes effect all into a Gaussian distribution of company sizes.

This would permanently increase DRAM prices. Memory fabricators either earn billions of dollars in income each year or they can't keep going. There are no little Mom and Pop businesses that can do photolithography on leading process nodes.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#66

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

why do you think allocating hardware to gamers is proper usage? maybe AI cures cancer, or at least writes some code

What do you think happens when the majority of consumers are priced not only out of bread, but also circuses?

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#67

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

why do you think allocating hardware to gamers is proper usage? maybe AI cures cancer, or at least writes some code

Or you could look at reality where it generates fake social media posts s lot and we could all ask, why is this valuable?

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#68
post #37

Does anyone know if the increase in prices in high-end RAM will affect lower end RAM used in embedded devices, e.g. LPDDR4?

Gamers Nexus is reporting increasing DDR4 prices, but it’s unclear to what extent it’s driven by the DDR5 market. DDR4 production is expected to be slowing anyway given the move to DDR5.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9hLiwNViMak

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#69
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a better solution is exponential tax on a company size. I.e. once a company starts to earn above, say, 1 billion, it will be taxed by income by ever increasing amount. Or put it another way, use taxes to break the power law and winner takes effect all into a Gaussian distribution of company sizes.

This would permanently increase DRAM prices. Memory fabricators either earn billions of dollars in income each year or they can't keep going. There are no little Mom and Pop businesses that can do photolithography on leading process nodes.

Nonsense, it would force vertical de-integration.

Chip fabs used to be like book publishers; you don't have to own a printing press to be an author. Carver Mead even described his vision of the industry that way.

Nowadays you have to get your cell libraries and a large chunk of your toolchain from the fab. Of course it's laundered through cadence+synopsys, but it's still coming from the fab. You have to buy your masks from the fab (heck they aren't even allowed to leave the fab so do you really own them?). And on and on.

For the record I don't agree with the "exponential" part, but otherwise this is an underappreciated and powerful technique.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#70
Wild experience building a PC today and discovering the prices are less competitive with Macs than they’ve always been. Building a well-appointed gaming/production/CAD rig is suddenly very expensive between RAM, GPU, and nvme prices being so high.
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