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Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

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Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#201

Post by bilegeek »

nine_k wrote: post #173
cesarb wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Well, patience as a consumer might pay off in the next year or so when the music stops and hyperscalers are forced to dump their inventories. Their inventories are not what consumers use. Consumer DDR5 motherboards normally take UDIMMs. Server DDR5 motherboards normally take RDIMMs. They're mechanically incompatible, and the voltages are different. And the memory for GPUs is normally soldered directly to the board…

I bet that friendly Chinese entrepreneurs will sell inexpensive E1.S to m.2 adapters, and maybe even PCIe riser cards for putting an OAM and a bunch of fans, and maybe even an HDMI output. Good hardware won't be wasted, given some demand.

Inexpensive, probably not. E1.S isn't just a different connector, it's a completely different protocol than PCIe.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#202

Post by zozbot234 »

Yokolos wrote: post #175
ajb wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dram alternates between feast and famine; it's the nature of a business when the granularity of investment is so huge (you have a fab or you don't, and they cost billions -maybe trillions by now). So, it will swing back. Unfortunately it looks like maybe 3-5 years on average, from some analysis here: https://storagesearch.com/memory-boom-bust-cycles.html (That's just me eyeballing it, feel free to do the math)

I wouldn't be so sure. I've seen analyses making the case that this new phase is unlike previous cycles and DRAM makers will be far less willing to invest significantly in new capacity, especially into consumer DRAM over more enterprise DRAM or HBM (and even there there's still a significant risk of the AI bubble popping). The shortage could last a decade. Right now DRAM makers are benefiting to an extreme degree sin…

The most likely direct response is not new capacity, it's older capacity running at full tilt (given the now higher margins) to produce more mature technology with lower requirements on fabrication (such as DDR3/4, older Flash storage tech, etc.) and soak up demand for these. DDR5/GDDR/HBM/etc. prices will still be quite high, but alternatives will be available.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#203

Post by Temporary_31337 »

Terr_ wrote: post #49
phoboslab wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just looked at the invoice for my current PC parts that I bought in April 2016: I paid 177 EUR (~203 USD) for 32GB (DDR4-2800). It's kinda sad when you grow up in a period of rapid hardware development and now see 10 years going by with RAM $/GB prices staying roughly the same.

Aside, $203 USD back then would be about $276 USD after inflation. Not a primary effect, but contributory.

I think that goes to show that official inflation benchmarks are not very practical / useful in terms of buckets of things that people actually buy or desire. If the bucket that measured inflation included computer parts (GPUs?), food and housing - i.e. all that the thing that a geek really needs inflation would be wayy higher...

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#204

Post by [deleted] »

hypeatei wrote: post #18

Well, patience as a consumer might pay off in the next year or so when the music stops and hyperscalers are forced to dump their inventories. There still isn't a clear path to profitability for any of these AI products and the capital expenditure has been enormous.

[deleted]

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#207

Post by rasz »

Yokolos wrote: post #175
ajb wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dram alternates between feast and famine; it's the nature of a business when the granularity of investment is so huge (you have a fab or you don't, and they cost billions -maybe trillions by now). So, it will swing back. Unfortunately it looks like maybe 3-5 years on average, from some analysis here: https://storagesearch.com/memory-boom-bust-cycles.html (That's just me eyeballing it, feel free to do the math)

I wouldn't be so sure. I've seen analyses making the case that this new phase is unlike previous cycles and DRAM makers will be far less willing to invest significantly in new capacity, especially into consumer DRAM over more enterprise DRAM or HBM (and even there there's still a significant risk of the AI bubble popping). The shortage could last a decade. Right now DRAM makers are benefiting to an extreme degree sin…

A LOT of businesses learned during Covid they can make more money by permanently reducing output and jacking prices. We might be witnessing the end times of economies of scale.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#208

Post by lenkite »

noosphr wrote: post #58
incompatible wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not follow the time-honoured approach and put the data centres in low-income countries?

Because you only do that once the tech has been comodatized and you have wrung all the benefit for your country that you can. The British didn't industrialise Indian for a reason.

The British deindustrialized India.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De-industrialisation_of_India

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#209

Post by snuxoll »

Yokolos wrote: post #175
ajb wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dram alternates between feast and famine; it's the nature of a business when the granularity of investment is so huge (you have a fab or you don't, and they cost billions -maybe trillions by now). So, it will swing back. Unfortunately it looks like maybe 3-5 years on average, from some analysis here: https://storagesearch.com/memory-boom-bust-cycles.html (That's just me eyeballing it, feel free to do the math)

I wouldn't be so sure. I've seen analyses making the case that this new phase is unlike previous cycles and DRAM makers will be far less willing to invest significantly in new capacity, especially into consumer DRAM over more enterprise DRAM or HBM (and even there there's still a significant risk of the AI bubble popping). The shortage could last a decade. Right now DRAM makers are benefiting to an extreme degree sin…

There's not a difference between "consumer" DRAM and "enterprise" DRAM at the silicon level, they're cut from the same wafers at the end of the day.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#210

Post by Aerroon »

wat10000 wrote: post #170
Projectiboga wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Military spending is a type of wealfare for the wealthy it is one of the only forms of public or government spending that doesn't crowd out private investors, the way public housing or publicly funded hospitals do. The high military spending and the contractor class often vote more conservative than typical for their demographic and economic peers It's been high since WW2, with maybe a slight drop in the late 70s. Th…

Our national debt is from our unwillingness to raise taxes to balance the budget. Federal spending is somewhat high historically, but not absurdly so. Relative to the economy, it's at about the same level as it was in the 1980s. Measured as a percentage of GDP, the current military budget is the lowest since before the Second World War, aside from a brief period at the end of the 1990s where it was slightly lower. Co…

But federal spending has been historically high ever since like the New Deal.

Budget-to-GDP ratio in the US is close to 40%. (On that note, you should really consider federal + state combined rather than just federal.)

In early 1900s this same ratio was around 5-10%.

It has been increasing pretty much everywhere during the 20th century. It has made me wonder whether much of the prosperity we've seen and felt might not be a result of this ever-increasing percentage. Essentially we're spending more and more and that makes it feel like we're progressing faster than we are. Eventually it's going to have to stop though and I dread what happens when we do.

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