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Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

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Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#41

Post by ptero »

testartr wrote: post #23
mrsilencedogood wrote: post #3

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

why do you think allocating hardware to gamers is proper usage? maybe AI cures cancer, or at least writes some code

For example: allocating the resources to only few industries deprives everyone else: small players, hobbyists, gamers, tinkerers from opportunities to play with their toys. And small players playing with random toys is a source of multiple innovations.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#42

Post by benjojo12 »

hypeatei wrote: post #18

Well, patience as a consumer might pay off in the next year or so when the music stops and hyperscalers are forced to dump their inventories. There still isn't a clear path to profitability for any of these AI products and the capital expenditure has been enormous.

The problem is that it is not entirely clear that the hyperscalers are buying DDR5, instead it seems that supplies are being diverted so that more HBM/GDDR wafers can be produced.

HBM/GDDR is not necessarily as useful to the average person as DDR4/DDR5

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#43

Post by sokoloff »

sixothree wrote: post #34
fabian2k wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're treating it as a "winner takes it all"-kind of business. And I'm not sure this is a reasonable bet. The only way the massive planned investments make sense is if you think the winner can grab a very large piece of a huge pie. I've no idea how large the pie will be in the near future, but I'm even more skeptical that there will be a single winner.

What's odd about this is I believe there does exist a winner takes all technology. And that it's AR. The more I dream about the possibilities of AR, the more I believe people are going to find it incredibly useful. It's just the hardware isn't nearly ready. Maybe I'm wrong but I believe these companies are making some of the largest strategic blunders possible at this point in time.

Why would AR be particularly likely to have a single winnner?

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#44

Post by logancbrown »

fpoling wrote: post #38
automatic6131 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need better antitrust and anti-monopoly enforcement. Break up the biggest companies, and then they'll have to actually participate in markets.

I think a better solution is exponential tax on a company size. I.e. once a company starts to earn above, say, 1 billion, it will be taxed by income by ever increasing amount. Or put it another way, use taxes to break the power law and winner takes effect all into a Gaussian distribution of company sizes.

Ah yes, the same tax mentality that is working great for EU innovation.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#45

Post by lazide »

mrsilencedogood wrote: post #3

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

New type? Lol.

It’s a classic ‘tulip bubble’.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#46

Post by christophilus »

mrsilencedogood wrote: post #3

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

Markets are voting machines in the short term and weighing machines in the long term. We’re in the short term popularity phase of AI at the moment. The weighing will come along eventually.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#47

Post by Terr_ »

fpoling wrote: post #38
automatic6131 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need better antitrust and anti-monopoly enforcement. Break up the biggest companies, and then they'll have to actually participate in markets.

I think a better solution is exponential tax on a company size. I.e. once a company starts to earn above, say, 1 billion, it will be taxed by income by ever increasing amount. Or put it another way, use taxes to break the power law and winner takes effect all into a Gaussian distribution of company sizes.

Is that revenue, or profit? If revenue, it'll slam certain kinds of high-volume low-profit businesses, and if it's profit then the company will just arrange to have big compensation "expenses" for executives.

The latter would have to be backstopped by taxes on individual income.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#48

Post by parineum »

mrsilencedogood wrote: post #3

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

> where resources can be massively misallocated

It's a little ironic but to call this a market failure due to resource misalocation because prices are high when high prices is how misalocation is avoided.

I'm a little suspicious that "misalocation" just means it's too expensive for you. That's a feature, not a bug.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#49

Post by Terr_ »

phoboslab wrote: post #31
sbarre wrote: post #6

I'm so mad about this, I need DDR5 for a new mini-PC I bought and prices have literally gone up by 2.5x.. 128GB used to be 400$ in June, and now it's over $1,000 for the same 2x64GB set.. I have no idea if/when prices will come back down but it sucks.

I just looked at the invoice for my current PC parts that I bought in April 2016: I paid 177 EUR (~203 USD) for 32GB (DDR4-2800). It's kinda sad when you grow up in a period of rapid hardware development and now see 10 years going by with RAM $/GB prices staying roughly the same.

Aside, $203 USD back then would be about $276 USD after inflation. Not a primary effect, but contributory.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#50

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

sbarre wrote: post #6

I'm so mad about this, I need DDR5 for a new mini-PC I bought and prices have literally gone up by 2.5x.. 128GB used to be 400$ in June, and now it's over $1,000 for the same 2x64GB set.. I have no idea if/when prices will come back down but it sucks.

I'm still on DDR3 :)
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