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Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

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Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#301

Post by Ray20 »

wat10000 wrote: post #118
epistasis wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a weird form of centralized planning. Except there's no election to get on to the central committee, it's like in the Soviet era where you had to run in the right circles and have sway in them. There's too much group-think in the executive class. Too much forced adoption of AI, too much bandwagon hopping. The return-to-office fad is similar, a bunch of executives following the mandates of their board, all becau…

This is why I think taxes on the very wealthy should be so high that billionaires can't happen. The usual reasons are either about raising revenue or are vague ideas about inequality. It doesn't raise enough revenue to matter, and inequality is a fairly weak justification by itself. But the power concentration is a strong reason. That level of wealth is incompatible with democracy. Money is power, and when someone ac…

> But the power concentration is a strong reason.

A centralized authority capable of so severely restricting the economic freedom of the most powerful people implies a far greater concentration of power than the one you're fighting against. You're proposing to cure the common cold with AIDS.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#302

Post by wat10000 »

Aerroon wrote: post #212
wat10000 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I think taxes on the very wealthy should be so high that billionaires can't happen. The usual reasons are either about raising revenue or are vague ideas about inequality. It doesn't raise enough revenue to matter, and inequality is a fairly weak justification by itself. But the power concentration is a strong reason. That level of wealth is incompatible with democracy. Money is power, and when someone ac…

You'll just get a different form of power concentration. Do you think the Soviet Union didn't have power concentration in individuals? Of course it did, that's why the general secretary of the party was more important than the actual heads of state and government.

Do you think I’m proposing anything like the Soviet system?

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#303

Post by wat10000 »

Ray20 wrote: post #301
wat10000 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why I think taxes on the very wealthy should be so high that billionaires can't happen. The usual reasons are either about raising revenue or are vague ideas about inequality. It doesn't raise enough revenue to matter, and inequality is a fairly weak justification by itself. But the power concentration is a strong reason. That level of wealth is incompatible with democracy. Money is power, and when someone ac…

> But the power concentration is a strong reason. A centralized authority capable of so severely restricting the economic freedom of the most powerful people implies a far greater concentration of power than the one you're fighting against. You're proposing to cure the common cold with AIDS.

Why? We already tax people. This would be a difference of degree, not of kind.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#304

Post by lm28469 »

noosphr wrote: post #244
lm28469 wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bridges can be used for decades, your brand new GiGaAiFaRm will be fully deprecated by 2030 already. All the infrastructure will be useless when the data centers move to the next city/state offering a tax cut.

A power line can be used for a century.

Sure, if you have something worth powering at the end of it.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#305

Post by rtaylorgarlock »

ksec wrote: post #300
ajb wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dram alternates between feast and famine; it's the nature of a business when the granularity of investment is so huge (you have a fab or you don't, and they cost billions -maybe trillions by now). So, it will swing back. Unfortunately it looks like maybe 3-5 years on average, from some analysis here: https://storagesearch.com/memory-boom-bust-cycles.html (That's just me eyeballing it, feel free to do the math)

I am so glad both top rated and majority of comments on HN finally understands DRAM industry instead of constant DRAM is a cartel that is why things are expensive. Also worth mentioning DRAM and NAND's profit from Samsung is what keep the Samsung Foundry fighting TSMC. Especially for those who thinks TSMC is somehow a monopoly. Another things to point out which is not mentioned yet, China is working on both DRAM and…

re: other things, I bet I agree.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#306

Post by noosphr »

lm28469 wrote: post #304
noosphr wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A power line can be used for a century.

Sure, if you have something worth powering at the end of it.

The same is true of all infrastructure from roads to water pipes.

You are being obtuse for the sake of AI doomerism.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#308

Post by ryandrake »

mk89 wrote: post #184
ryandrake wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more than the fact they are surrounded by sycophants. It's also that, despite the mythology the executive-worship-industry tries to paint, CxOs and board members of companies are just not very creative or visionary people. They largely spend their time looking at their peers and competitors for hints about what they should be doing. And today, those hints all are "do AI". They're not sitting down and deriving fr…

> They're not sitting down and deriving from first principles that AI is the way--they're seeing their buddies steering other companies and they're all saying AI is the way, so they say AI is the way, too. I think you're underestimating a bit. We must implement AI because they were able to sell it so good that they got billion $ investors (see all the money coming from Qatar/saudi arabia etc). That's a lot of money c…

But that thing they all were peddling and getting investors over could be anything! For a while it was "blockchain." Everyone had to do blockchain because everyone was doing blockchain, and investors were giving you money if you say blockchain. I wonder what it will be once the AI bubble bursts.

I swear that every 5-10 years, corporate CEOs all get together in a secret meeting where they all agree on the next buzzword technology. They invite Harvard Business Review and the tech press to give them their marching orders. Then, finally, the white smoke comes forth from the chimney indicating the next bubble buzzword has been chosen, and the industry goes bananas over it for 10 years for no reason.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#309

Post by rr808 »

mrsilencedogood wrote: post #3

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

Prices going up 2-3x is not market failure, its just another commodity cycle. If it went up 10-100x you might have a point.
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