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Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

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Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#141

Post by cedws »

orangecat wrote: post #97
KerrAvon wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jensen is right, though. If we force China to develop their own technology they’ll do that! We don’t have a monopoly on talent or resources. The US can have a stake at the table or nothing at all. The time when we, the US, could do protectionism without shooting ourselves in the foot is well and truly over. The most we can do is inconvenience China in the short term.

The most we can do is inconvenience China in the short term. If scaling holds up enough to make AGI possible in the next 5-10 years, slowing down China by even a few years is extremely valuable.

Nothing says we’re the good guys like “we’ll do whatever it takes to sandbag our competitors.” Of course, we’re the benevolent ones who will only use this tool for wealth and prosperity.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#142

Post by nickysielicki »

KerrAvon wrote: post #23
levocardia wrote: post #14

Nvidia is also very mad about Anthropic's advocacy for chip export controls, which is not mentioned in this article. Dario has an entire blog post explaining why preventing China from getting Nvidia's top of the line chips is a critical national security issue, and Jensen is, at least by his public statements, furious about the export controls. As it currently stands, Anthropic is winning in terms of what the actual…

Jensen is right, though. If we force China to develop their own technology they’ll do that! We don’t have a monopoly on talent or resources. The US can have a stake at the table or nothing at all. The time when we, the US, could do protectionism without shooting ourselves in the foot is well and truly over. The most we can do is inconvenience China in the short term.

> If we force China to develop their own technology they’ll do that!

They’re going to do that anyway. They already are. The reason that they want to buy these cards in the first place is because developing these accelerators takes time. A lot of time.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#143

Post by sbierwagen »

kbos87 wrote: post #19

Companies like Nvidia and OpenAI base their answers to any questions on economic risk on their own best interests and a pretty short view of history. They are fighting like hell to make sure they are among a small set of winners while waving away the risk or claiming that there's some better future for the majority of people on the other side of all this. To claim that all of the benefit isn't going to naturally accr…

>Who gets the nice car and the vacation home?

AI will crash the price of manufactured goods. Since all prices are relative, the price of rivalrous goods will rise. A car will be cheap. A lakeside cabin will be cheap. A cottage in the Hamptons will be expensive. Superbowl tickets will be a billion dollars each.

>meager universal basic income allotment

What does a middle class family spend its money on? You don't need a house within an easy commute of your job, because you won't have one. You don't need a house in a good school district, because there's no point in going to school. No need for the red queen's race of extracurriculars that look good on a college application, or to put money in a "college fund", because college won't exist either.

The point of AI isn't that it's going to blow up some of the social order, but that it's going to blow up the whole thing.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#144

Post by bdangubic »

MostlyStable wrote: post #65
kbos87 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would my employer pay me more for using their AI? I am already massively more productive at work using AI. I'm not getting paid more, and I'm not working fewer hours. The road we are headed down is one where all of the economic benefits go straight to the owning class.

For the same reasons that, on average and in general, increases in productivity have lead to increases in wages across history. It's not universal and it's not instantaneous, but the base level assumption should be that increases in productivity will lead to increases in wages in the long run and we should have specific reasons why it won't happen for a given case to believe otherwise.

you are confusing increases in profits with increases in wages :)

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#145

Post by ethbr1 »

MostlyStable wrote: post #80
bluefirebrand wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For the same reasons that, on average and in general, increases in productivity have lead to increases in wages across history Historically, increased productivity has almost literally never increased wages or benefits without worker uprisings Seriously look into the history of labor and automation

Cool. What worker uprising occurred in the US in 1995? I (and basically every economist) disagree with your interpretation of historical events. https://x.com/LettieriDC/status/1922704140834099370

Sub-6% unemployment: https://www.investopedia.com/historical-us-unemployment-rate...

Capital doesn't pay labor unless it has to.

Average wages = f(labor productivity, demand for labor, labor supply)

The AGI future is that demand for labor crashes.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#146

Post by zer00eyz »

willis936 wrote: post #100
zer00eyz wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and a pretty short view of history Great lets see an example! > To claim that all of the benefit isn't going to naturally accrue to a thin layer of people at the top isn't a speculation at this point - it's a bold faced lie. Except that innovation has lead to more jobs, new industries, and more prosperity and fewer working hours. The stark example of this: you arent a farmer: https://modernsurvivalblog.com/systemic…

I struggle to see how AI innovation falls into the "automate creation of material goods" camp and not the "stratification of wealth" camp.

This is a spurious argument at best:

There isnt a line of unemployed draftsmen out there begging for change cause we invented Autocad: https://azon.com/2023/02/16/rare-historical-photos/

What happened to all the switchboard operators.

How about the computers, the people who used to do math, at desks, with slide rules, before we replaced them with machines.

These are all white colar jobs that we replaced with "automation".

Amazon existed before, it was called Sears... it was a catalog so pictures, and printing, and mailing in checks, we replaced all of that with a website and CC processing.

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#147

Post by tonyhart7 »

I don't care if AI eliminates job or not tbh, maybe its like internet that jobs would created but maybe not

the only thing that I certain is I would take advantage of this "AI revolution" so called, maybe just maybe Human would get replace with Human + AI tools for now at least

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#148

Post by ethbr1 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #66
kbos87 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would my employer pay me more for using their AI? I am already massively more productive at work using AI. I'm not getting paid more, and I'm not working fewer hours. The road we are headed down is one where all of the economic benefits go straight to the owning class.

> Why would my employer pay me more for using their AI? We’re on HN. AI makes it easier for you to disrupt your employer.

* Unless your employer happens to have engineered a monopoly

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#149

Post by ethbr1 »

charcircuit wrote: post #90
kbos87 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would my employer pay me more for using their AI? I am already massively more productive at work using AI. I'm not getting paid more, and I'm not working fewer hours. The road we are headed down is one where all of the economic benefits go straight to the owning class.

You need to switch jobs in order to get paid at market rate. Companies have found that they do not need to keep up with the market rate to retain employees.

It varies by company.

I know of at least one major company that continually benchmarks market rates and uses those as default raises.

Unsurprisingly, they have an average tenure of 10+ years...

Re: Nvidia CEO criticizes Anthropic boss over his statements on AI

#150

Post by ethbr1 »

mjr00 wrote: post #75
kbos87 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would my employer pay me more for using their AI? I am already massively more productive at work using AI. I'm not getting paid more, and I'm not working fewer hours. The road we are headed down is one where all of the economic benefits go straight to the owning class.

Why would your employer pay you more for using Python/Java/JavaScript? You're massively more productive when using those languages instead of C for many common development tasks. Did the introduction of Python drastically reduce software developer salaries?

{Total demand for software} is oddly not being mentioned by most people in this thread.

First approximation, there are two AI coding futures:

1. AI coding increases software development productivity, decreasing the cost of software, stimulating more demand for the now more efficient development.

2. AI coding increases software development productivity such that the existing labor pool is too large for demand.

I'd hazard (1) in the short term and (2) in the long term.

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