Denmark to raise retirement age to 70 • Hacker News Board

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#181

Post by foobazgt » Sun, May 25, 2025, 7:04 PM UTC

zeroCalories wrote: post #18

deanc wrote: post #4

I’m not sure how I feel about this. I’m based in the Nordics and my estimated retirement age at the moment (where I can get my state pension) is 67y 4m. Whilst I understand the burden the aging population is having on society (lifespan) it doesn’t seem like there’s much proactive government input into people’s healthspan. Maybe instead we should try investing in this area (reducing the burden on services) instead of…

Economically, old people are a burden on society. If you want to have a long and easy retirement for your elderly, you need a growing population, forever. Like a ponzi scheme. The alternative is that you break young people's back by burdening them with providing for the elderly. No amount of redistribution will help a country with poor productivity. 60 was a reasonable retirement age years ago, because most people wo…

If you had to pick an age for societal burden, it'd be the average "young" person who isn't making a net-positive contribution until around the age of 25. Most people don't receive a corresponding 25 years of retirement, and the retirement they do receive is a product of contributing to it for 40 years.

But it turns out young people become middle-age people, become old people, and we're all in this together. The real problem is not about how the pie is split across generations, but about the realities of lifespans, economic production, and expenses. If you're responsible for funding the entirety of your retirement, all of this is abundantly clear. When you nationalize retirement, all sorts of budgeting tricks start happening, like "borrowing" to fund other programs, papering shortfalls via population growth, etc. Then you start getting age warfare when the govt has to eventually cut back.

You could dissolve the national retirement plan, but that seems like a bad idea for similar reasons as entirely dissolving national welfare and insurance programs. It will always be the case that some people, need some help, some of the time. I guess in my ideal world, it's reduced to a much smaller safety net, because the government is managing the economy well enough that the populace has the wherewithal to save appropriately, and they are educated enough to do so.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#182

Post by harimau777 » Sun, May 25, 2025, 7:04 PM UTC

lancekey wrote: post #77

dtgm92 wrote: post #9

This is because of their low birth rate primarily right? I think the system has failed at this point, when you are expected to work that long.

But people are living longer, in better health (I think but didn’t verify with data) and entering the workforce later (due to more secondary schooling). Setting aside the issues of declining birth rate for a minute, this seems like a reasonable adjustment to the other factors?

Personally, I'm not sure that they are living in better health in the way that I care about. I.e. my goal is to retire when I'm still healthy enough to do things (i.e. travel). Although they are likely healthier than previous generations, most of the 70 years olds I see still aren't healthy enough to travel.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#183

Post by JanisErdmanis » Sun, May 25, 2025, 7:04 PM UTC

The birth rates have been low for a decade. I wonder if the change is triggered by US stock market downturn where majority of EU pensions are invested and expectation of a doom.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#184

Post by lyu07282 » Sun, May 25, 2025, 7:05 PM UTC

aaomidi wrote: post #142

bombcar wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are quite a few highly paid professions where the main purpose of that profession’s union seems to be to prevent there being an adequate supply of the professionals.

Is that what’s happening here?

Of course, we just aren't doing neoliberalism hard enough yet! Lets get rid of all the unions, that must be the reason everything is falling apart.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#185

Post by jonathanstrange » Sun, May 25, 2025, 7:05 PM UTC

nicolashahn wrote: post #85

jxjnskkzxxhx wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does "reduce pensions" mean? Pensions are people's property. You can take pensions like you can confiscate property, a la communism.

So close! Pensions are actually property taken from the younger generation and given to retirees.

Those retirees have been paying into the pension system their whole life.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#186

Post by robaato » Sun, May 25, 2025, 7:05 PM UTC

tossandthrow wrote: post #11

dtgm92 wrote: post #9

This is because of their low birth rate primarily right? I think the system has failed at this point, when you are expected to work that long.

It is. And this is the case in all western countries. It is just being realized in different ways. Fundamentalle there are 3 ways to cope 1. reduce pensions 2. Raise taxes 3. Decrease amount of benefit receivers. Denmark choose number 3

No 4 - do like Norway:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Pension_Fund_of_Nor...

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#187

Post by JadoJodo » Sun, May 25, 2025, 7:05 PM UTC

Without discarding the issue of the moving goalpost, I do wonder what the quality of life contrast looks like between a 70-year old in 2025 and a 70-year old in 1925. Note: I arbitrarily picked the latter date, as I wasn't able to (with a quick search) locate the year in which the original retirement age was established in Denmark.

I also wonder what it would look like for the government to encourage (or even facilitate) "jobs for seniors" that only become available to you after you turn 60. They could be jobs that are, by design, low-risk, low-physicality, but medium-high mental stimulation.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#188

Post by IndubitableCoil » Sun, May 25, 2025, 7:06 PM UTC

oldpersonintx2 wrote: post #136

dueltmp_yufsy wrote: post #97

Seems the US will have to do this soon. Just very very unpopular. Not sure which party will actually pull the trigger.

"Not retiring" in the US will be more dictated by inability to purchase a home than Social Security. Look at all these people around you in their forties who are still renting. They are basically too late to buy. They will be "forever renters". This means they will have to work until death, as their rents continue to rise when their peers who owned homes took their downsizing premium and lived off of it for a few yea…

I hear this sentiment frequently but it doesn't pencil out. Renting an equivalent unit will typically, month-to-month, be cheaper than buying. Of course a significant portion of the monthly mortgage payment goes to principal which increases your net worth, but there are many cases where the money you save monthly by renting will actually exceed the principal you accumulate from your mortgage payment. In fact, there are plenty of helpful calculators to help you figure out what makes the most sense if you don't have a love affair with Excel [1].

You may argue that the the value of the house will appreciate well in a good market, but there is nothing stopping you from taking the money you saved by renting and putting it in an appreciating asset.

[1] https://www.nerdwallet.com/calculator/rent-vs-buy-calculator

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#189

Post by sib » Sun, May 25, 2025, 7:06 PM UTC

tossandthrow wrote: post #52

polipus wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living in Copenhagen for the last 7 years. - housing for 80k USD is 525k DKK: no way you can find anything at that price anywhere close to cph. Not sure for other "major" cities, but in cph you can expect to pay 4mil DKK (600K USD) for a ~60 sqmt apartment, prices will fall outside the cities, but nowhere close to 80k USD. Where did you get that number? - you pay for your unemployment benefit, thought an a-kasse. Its…

That is why I explicitly said major cities and not Copenhagen. Look 20 minutes out of Odense, Aalborg, Randers, etc. Don't let yourself believe that a country is nothing but its capital - it is correct, that if you decide to live in a 4mil DKK apartment in the Copenhagen area, then you have also opted out of public help, and you are on your own.

I think it's worth remembering that Hacker News is a global platform and if someone refers to "major cities" in Denmark, for many (most?) readers, the only name that would come to mind is Copenhagen.

Copenhagen: ~1.4M people

Odense: ~190K people

Aalborg: ~120K people

Randers: ~64K people

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#190

Post by distances » Sun, May 25, 2025, 7:07 PM UTC

WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #70

tossandthrow wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is. And this is the case in all western countries. It is just being realized in different ways. Fundamentalle there are 3 ways to cope 1. reduce pensions 2. Raise taxes 3. Decrease amount of benefit receivers. Denmark choose number 3

Typically EU countries implement the 3 options together - option 1. btw is meant to make the pension irrelevant. It can't happen from one day to the next, but there is a shift happening where people contribute more and more towards private pension funds. It's easy to see that at some point, there will be the equivalent of the US 401K in Europe.

> It's easy to see that at some point, there will be the equivalent of the US 401K in Europe.

* In some European countries. Many countries, however, have no meaningful avenues whatsoever for tax efficient pension saving. My own "pension fund" is just a regular broker account where I invest after income taxes, and where I have to pay capital gains as usual.