Denmark to raise retirement age to 70 • Hacker News Board

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#71

Post by spacebanana7 » Sun, May 25, 2025, 5:44 PM UTC

lazyasciiart wrote: post #68

spacebanana7 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel is the only developed country which has a sustained positive fertility rate.

But that’s not an example of a solution - the birth rate is driven by orthodox citizens who don’t participate in mainstream society, so they aren’t going to pay taxes or care for the elderly (outside their own family).

Yeah it’s a pessimistic data point because it’s challenging to replicate Israel’s unique circumstances and also it’s not clear this solution is even good for Israel.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#72

Post by amanaplanacanal » Sun, May 25, 2025, 5:46 PM UTC

pfdietz wrote: post #55

CubsFan1060 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't the fourth way be via increasing either birth rate or immigration?

The total fertility rate (number of children per woman) seems stubborn against attempts to raise it. I suggest instead altering the male/female ratio, so a stable or growing population can be maintained at lower TFR. Technically, filter sperm to remove those with Y chromosomes before artificial insemination.

As Jan and Dean put it in Surf City: "two girls for every boy".

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#73

Post by tossandthrow » Sun, May 25, 2025, 5:47 PM UTC

deanc wrote: post #60

WA wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s the other way around: a few decades ago people retired only a few years earlier, had 5-10 years of retirement and then died. Now people live way longer, but the retirement age never got adjusted properly to the new reality. So 15-20 years of retirement is the new normal. In addition, way fewer young payers for the now old.

Sure. But is that the society we want to live in. Do we not have ambitions to have people work less, enjoy what little life they have more? I'm not saying this is an economically easy problem to solve, but we focus so much on economics and so little on policies that make people happy.

I would love to see a model That supports this.

I think it is possible, but we need to raise (corporate) taxes a lot, and this needs to happen globally, as companies move.

As a star I would love to see global minimum corporate taxes, and then take it from there.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#74

Post by StackRanker3000 » Sun, May 25, 2025, 5:48 PM UTC

tossandthrow wrote: post #37

littlestymaar wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are missing the most important one: - increase productivity more than how much the workforce/receivers grow. And if AI/robots eventually deliver, we're soon going to need a discussion about lowering the retirement age to 55 or even 50 if we don't want 30% unemployment anyway.

That would be raising taxes. - indifferent to how much automation you have, people still need to pay for it, for money they don't earn.

Automation and increased productivity can also lower the cost of necessities such as food and health care, meaning retired people could theoretically get by with less.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#75

Post by grunder_advice » Sun, May 25, 2025, 5:48 PM UTC

SoftTalker wrote: post #48

CubsFan1060 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't the fourth way be via increasing either birth rate or immigration?

[flagged]

Getting immigrants who work is a non-issue. I never heard of immigrants from India, China, Africa or Latin America who don't work so long as they entered the country legally. The issue you are alluding to has to do with genuine refugees and illegal economic migrants, who are not filtered at the border depending on their employability within the local market. But the cultural shift is still inevitable. A foreigner is not a local, and it is neither fair nor ethical to expect a foreigner to transform themselves into a local.

I think, if you are concerned with the cultural shift, you can give immigrants temporary term VISAs and make it clear their stay is going to be strictly temporary. That was supposed to be how the Gastarbeiter system works. Thing is, when you have already on boarded a foreign worker and have had them working for you for 2 years already, you don't want to let them go and replace them with a fresh foreign worker who you have to retrain.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#76

Post by StackRanker3000 » Sun, May 25, 2025, 5:49 PM UTC

namdnay wrote: post #26

tossandthrow wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s not really a Ponzi scheme, it is completely possible for the system to be balanced, it’s just very very hard to get people to vote for you if you say they’ll have less tomorrow This is exactly what happens in Denmark - a balancing of the pension system. Also,rgis has been planned since 2006 - so it is nothing new.

A real balancing would entail cutting pensions for existing pensioners. Which is electoral suicide. So what you always end up doing is shafting future pensioners, either by pushing back the retirement age, or by doing nothing and waiting for it to explode

Why is that way of balancing this more real than the others?

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#77

Post by lancekey » Sun, May 25, 2025, 5:51 PM UTC

dtgm92 wrote: post #9

This is because of their low birth rate primarily right? I think the system has failed at this point, when you are expected to work that long.

But people are living longer, in better health (I think but didn’t verify with data) and entering the workforce later (due to more secondary schooling).

Setting aside the issues of declining birth rate for a minute, this seems like a reasonable adjustment to the other factors?

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#78

Post by lancekey » Sun, May 25, 2025, 5:52 PM UTC

spacebanana7 wrote: post #67

simianwords wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why not because of increased life expectancy?

That actually makes the problem worse unless retirement ages tick up at the same rate.

I think that’s what parent comment is saying: if life expectancy goes up, shouldn’t retirement age?

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#79

Post by jxjnskkzxxhx » Sun, May 25, 2025, 5:52 PM UTC

tossandthrow wrote: post #11

dtgm92 wrote: post #9

This is because of their low birth rate primarily right? I think the system has failed at this point, when you are expected to work that long.

It is. And this is the case in all western countries. It is just being realized in different ways. Fundamentalle there are 3 ways to cope 1. reduce pensions 2. Raise taxes 3. Decrease amount of benefit receivers. Denmark choose number 3

What does "reduce pensions" mean? Pensions are people's property. You can take pensions like you can confiscate property, a la communism.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#80

Post by tossandthrow » Sun, May 25, 2025, 5:53 PM UTC

deanc wrote: post #63

mrcwinn wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an American, I’m often that countries like Denmark are in fact constantly investing in health and entitlements, and so everyone is healthier and happier. Is that not the case?

In my part of the Nordics (Finland) they are cutting investment and sending people to private institutions. In rural areas private providers have entirely replaced public sector healthcare centers. This is seen as quite controversial across the board.

Self paid?