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Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

telegraph.co.uk

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Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#81

Post by WinstonSmith84 »

namdnay wrote: post #19
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The social pension system always was a Ponzi scheme where the ones who got in first(boomers) get the biggest share of the pie(10-20 years of life left after retirement), while those coming into the system last(millennials+) and pay for the current retirees will get rug-pulled(5-10 years of life left after retirement). Sustainable population and economic growth at that rate can't happen indefinitely. Some people have…

The boomers definitely weren’t the first getting in, the original pensions were paid to their own parents It’s not really a Ponzi scheme, it is completely possible for the system to be balanced, it’s just very very hard to get people to vote for you if you say they’ll have less tomorrow

maybe you don't like it to be called a Ponzi scheme, but the reality is that it is one.

Definition of a Ponzi scheme: A Ponzi scheme is an investment fraud that pays existing investors with funds collected from new investor. Ponzi scheme organizers often promise to invest your money and generate high returns with little or no risk. But in many Ponzi schemes, the fraudsters do not invest the money. Instead, they use it to pay those who invested earlier and may keep some for themselves.

https://www.investor.gov/protect-your-investments/fraud/type...

That's exactly how pensions work in Europe. Replace "Ponzi scheme organizers" by "legally elected governments" and here you have it - you have a whole continent of people believing that their pension is a given. Not everybody may like it, but that's the hard truth.

In the US, people contribute towards a 401K, and choose how to invest, but typically pick up just the S&P 500 - anyway and at least that money is somehow what they have saved for themselves.

But I agree with your statement "it is completely possible for the system to be balanced" - yes a Ponzi scheme can be absolutely balanced, you just need enough participants ...

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#83

Post by nicolashahn »

pfdietz wrote: post #55
CubsFan1060 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't the fourth way be via increasing either birth rate or immigration?

The total fertility rate (number of children per woman) seems stubborn against attempts to raise it. I suggest instead altering the male/female ratio, so a stable or growing population can be maintained at lower TFR. Technically, filter sperm to remove those with Y chromosomes before artificial insemination.

I feel like there really hasn't been sincere data-backed methods with proper resources behind them, for example governments giving out minor cash benefits to parents of a few thousand dollars when that's a drop in the bucket compared to the total cost of raising a kid and is not going to convince anyone who wasn't already going to have kids.

Also, that's a wild solution. You'd have to do away with monogamy which would cause some pretty insane societal shifts. However, as a straight guy I can see the appeal lol.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#84

Post by spacebanana7 »

lancekey wrote: post #78
spacebanana7 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That actually makes the problem worse unless retirement ages tick up at the same rate.

I think that’s what parent comment is saying: if life expectancy goes up, shouldn’t retirement age?

Thanks, I misunderstood.

I suppose increased life expectancy and fewer young people both contribute to worse dependency ratios.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#85

Post by nicolashahn »

jxjnskkzxxhx wrote: post #79
tossandthrow wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is. And this is the case in all western countries. It is just being realized in different ways. Fundamentalle there are 3 ways to cope 1. reduce pensions 2. Raise taxes 3. Decrease amount of benefit receivers. Denmark choose number 3

What does "reduce pensions" mean? Pensions are people's property. You can take pensions like you can confiscate property, a la communism.

So close! Pensions are actually property taken from the younger generation and given to retirees.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#86

Post by grunder_advice »

lostlogin wrote: post #30
tossandthrow wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is. And this is the case in all western countries. It is just being realized in different ways. Fundamentalle there are 3 ways to cope 1. reduce pensions 2. Raise taxes 3. Decrease amount of benefit receivers. Denmark choose number 3

2 has some options. Increase the number of (young) immigrants. Increase the birthrate (has anywhere managed this?).

Mormons and Amish have above replacement fertility rates. Millionaires in western countries also have above replacement fertility rates.

To me it seems rather obvious: you need both the will and the means to raise 3+ children.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#87

Post by pfdietz »

nicolashahn wrote: post #83
pfdietz wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The total fertility rate (number of children per woman) seems stubborn against attempts to raise it. I suggest instead altering the male/female ratio, so a stable or growing population can be maintained at lower TFR. Technically, filter sperm to remove those with Y chromosomes before artificial insemination.

I feel like there really hasn't been sincere data-backed methods with proper resources behind them, for example governments giving out minor cash benefits to parents of a few thousand dollars when that's a drop in the bucket compared to the total cost of raising a kid and is not going to convince anyone who wasn't already going to have kids. Also, that's a wild solution. You'd have to do away with monogamy which woul…

The issue with low TFR seems to be difficulty of forming relationships, not failure to have children once relationships are formed.

I'm imagining it becoming a social norm for single women to have (at least) a single child. Perhaps they'd team up to make raising them easier, forming loose family-like units. Romantic attachments would be optional.

One consequence of such a situation would be an incentive toward private positive eugenics. Women would prefer semen from top quality donors.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#88

Post by nicolashahn »

CubsFan1060 wrote: post #23
tossandthrow wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is. And this is the case in all western countries. It is just being realized in different ways. Fundamentalle there are 3 ways to cope 1. reduce pensions 2. Raise taxes 3. Decrease amount of benefit receivers. Denmark choose number 3

Wouldn't the fourth way be via increasing either birth rate or immigration?

Raising the birth rate is extremely difficult and immigration will destroy a country's culture if not managed properly.

For an interesting case study, compare Japan (who refuses to allow mass immigration and is at risk of going extinct) and the UK (who has embraced it and is on the way to becoming Muslim-majority). It'll be interesting to see in 50 years which one has had better outcomes.

Re: Denmark to raise retirement age to 70

#89

Post by tossandthrow »

StackRanker3000 wrote: post #74
tossandthrow wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be raising taxes. - indifferent to how much automation you have, people still need to pay for it, for money they don't earn.

Automation and increased productivity can also lower the cost of necessities such as food and health care, meaning retired people could theoretically get by with less.

No.

A part of necessities are access to assets.

In the model you propose, inequality in itself will make those more expensive.

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