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Bikes in the age of tariffs

renehersecycles.com

91–100 of 121 posts

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#91
post #28

An essential question is, what is the political angle for Trump and the right wing? They know what they are doing. They know it will cause economic calamity. They often seek to create calamity and crisis - with Covid; spreading fear (of immigrants, etc.), hatred and violence; disrupting health, education, and housing; international peace and security (NATO, Ukraine, etc.). You never see them spreading calm and peace…

I've been thinking about this same thing. Trying to figure out what the endgame is with all of this. I can only come to one meaningful conclusion. Preparing for a future war with China. In that context, everything starts to make sense. The whole point of these tariffs is two pronged. One, make the rest of the world pick a side. And two, attempt to disconnect global dependence on China. Making America "stand on its ow…

> One, make the rest of the world pick a side. And two, attempt to disconnect global dependence on China.

Logically this may well push many to greater trade with China.

China has a growing middle consumer class already greater in number than the total population of the USofA. China already has global scale manufacturing in place, now looking for fresh markets as US markets lower demand due to tariffs.

Smaller countries, say Australia, can trade their wagyu beef to China now that the US has tariff'd the US demand down towards zero .. in a number of ways the US has removed itself from global trade which will continue on with or without it.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#92

> Let’s do the math: Take a kid’s bike that retails at a big box store for $ 150. Let’s assume that bike costs $ 30 to make. The rest of the cost is shipping to the U.S., warehousing, transport to the store, marketing, admin costs, customer service, warranty, retailer profits, etc. Whether the bike is made in China, Vietnam or Cambodia, the new 34-38% tariffs will increase the cost by ‘only’ $ 10-12. (The old tariffs…

It's astonishning that we are discussing a price hike of asian made mass-market products (effectively your entire Amazon or Wal-Mart inventory from floor to ceiling) of 10% or more, and that's "just 10-13%" now? As if that alone wouldn't be felt more than the 2008 financial crisis in the pockets of Americans.

The problem is less that we’ll feel a 10% or even 15% price hike on foreign goods, but that we are so reliant on foreign manufacturing to begin with.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#93
post #45
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think many people migrate for specific industries. "Brain drain" is a always hot topic in my country. Many people from here move to the US for access to certain industries, tech included. They aren't going there to do whatever arbitrary work they can find. Those in the US who love manufacturing aren't moving to China, but that's the issue: They, unless they have something really unique to offer, are going t…

> "Brain drain" That's a good point; I wasn't thinking of that. Still, the number of immigrants to the US for 'brain drain' jobs I'd guess is relatively small, and Trump supports them to some degree - he likes wealthy immigrants, including in tech. Remember the recent (H-1B?) visa controversy. > Those who love manufacturing Is that really a passion for many people, working on an assembly line? I've read about it as a…

My passion is robotics and engineering, and manufacturing covers both of those readily. While I have been blessed to have been born in the midwest where manufacturing is plentiful, the majority of the US is not so accessible for this work outside of a military base or airport.

Some people do enjoy assembly line work, and in fact I would say a large amount of people want a reliable job with minimal mental overhead. There’s a lot more industry wants though: welders, safety personell, repair techs, engineers, chemists, programmers, electricians, hydraulic specialists, all just depends on the company. A car manufacturer for instance prioritizes robotics, but a steel plant would prefer welders and machinists. Tons of opportunity for people to do the jobs they love for good pay and benefits, if we could get more manufacturing into the US.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#94
post #38
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your country outlaws slavery and child labor, but imports freely (i.e. without tariffs) from countries which allows it, why does your country even have those laws? It’s certainly not to protect children or people from slavery; they’ve just exported the negative effects to other countries.

Could you apply your hypothetical? What countries are you talking about? How do you balance the benefits and the costs? If you wanted to improve human rights, what would be the best strategy? Do you think Trump and the GOP are doing it because of labor rights?

China, for one, has state-enforced labor of Uyghurs and other minorities: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/against-their-will-the-sit...

And, while Mexico is trying to limit forced labor, they’re still one of our bigger exporters of forced labor: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/resources/reports/child-la...

So it’s hardly a hypothetical. As for balancing benefits and costs, slave labor intrinsically weakens the value of labor to any country that imports, so ideally the US would tariff goods that are labor intensive from countries that practice slave labor. In general, taking China off of the UN Human Rights Council would be a good show (for what little the UN does), and countries that oppose slavery should tariff the countries that do it as well. I don’t want a blood diamond on my wife‘s finger, why would I want a blood apple in my mouth?

As for Trump, I believe he does so in part, not from an ethics perspective however. I imagine he views slave labor as undercutting US labor value, just as illegal immigration does, and that it plays some part in wrestling manufacturing away from China.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not why they're targeting conservative voters. They're targeting the states & districts of senators and congressmen who are voting for Trump's agenda in an effort to get them to change their vote.

> That's not why they're targeting conservative voters. They're targeting the states & districts of senators and congressmen who are voting for Trump's agenda in an effort to get them to change their vote. No. The post I was responding to literally was talking about personally taking advantage of conservative voters , not their representatives. The post above that talked about "punishing everyone involved in this tax…

Interesting the way you framed this. Especially the part about liberals doing the beatings and threatening more of them.

One party had a message and large portion of it's voter base focused on messages and policies that can only be described as hateful and harmful. Now that it seems like that harm is transpiring and surprise surprise just as the "we don't give two shits about you" liberals warned that harm is at best indiscriminate and at worst going to impact those spiteful voters the most.

Trump is doing exactly what he said he'd do, tariff all the things, these people proudly and loudly voted for the (self-inflicted) punishment you're describing.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#96
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you apply your hypothetical? What countries are you talking about? How do you balance the benefits and the costs? If you wanted to improve human rights, what would be the best strategy? Do you think Trump and the GOP are doing it because of labor rights?

China, for one, has state-enforced labor of Uyghurs and other minorities: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/against-their-will-the-sit... And, while Mexico is trying to limit forced labor, they’re still one of our bigger exporters of forced labor: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/resources/reports/child-la... So it’s hardly a hypothetical. As for balancing benefits and costs, slave labor intrinsically weakens the va…

> taking China off of the UN Human Rights Council would be a good show

That's not how legislatures work. It's like saying, 'take Senator Jones off the HHS committee because they are anti-vaccine' - the people in Senator Jones' state are entitled to representation with complete disregard for whether others like their Senator. Legislatures work with power as it is, not as how we want it to be.

> for what little the UN does

People on the right repeat it, but repetition doesn't make it fact. What do you know, specifically, about what the UN does (about human rights, if that's what you mean). The foundations for international law, which is powerful and effective though imperfect - like domestic law, but lacking the same enforcement mechanisms.

> [China and Mexico]

If everyone stopped doing all business with anyone in a country that does bad things, there would be no business or trade. Trade enriches the US, and has lifted billions out of poverty - including in China and Mexico.

Putting them back into poverty is just reckless. You need to come up with a better solution to your leaky roof than burning down the house.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#97
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Brain drain" That's a good point; I wasn't thinking of that. Still, the number of immigrants to the US for 'brain drain' jobs I'd guess is relatively small, and Trump supports them to some degree - he likes wealthy immigrants, including in tech. Remember the recent (H-1B?) visa controversy. > Those who love manufacturing Is that really a passion for many people, working on an assembly line? I've read about it as a…

My passion is robotics and engineering, and manufacturing covers both of those readily. While I have been blessed to have been born in the midwest where manufacturing is plentiful, the majority of the US is not so accessible for this work outside of a military base or airport. Some people do enjoy assembly line work, and in fact I would say a large amount of people want a reliable job with minimal mental overhead. Th…

> My passion is robotics and engineering, and manufacturing covers both of those readily.

That's completely different than working on an assembly line.

> Some people do enjoy assembly line work

Who? How many? I don't think I've ever heard it (though I'm sure someone must). Do you like it? Why don't you work on assembly line.

> would say a large amount of people want a reliable job with minimal mental overhead

That's an ignorant, condescending description of assembly line work. You'll need some evidence of this great mass of people, "I would say" isn't evidence.

> Tons of opportunity for people to do the jobs they love for good pay and benefits, if we could get more manufacturing into the US.

That's not the case - American companies can't find enough people with those skills as it is; there is no need for more of those jobs.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#98
post #82
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I can tell, all that does is send money to campaigns. While not getting junk mail is great, it doesn't build long-term grass roots organizations or resiliency. It doesn't support active protests, or get politicians to vigorously oppose what's happening to the US. I don't like how you can't see their recommendations for previous elections. That would help others judge if their "algorithm" is effective.

Well, yes, it's for campaign donations so it doesn't do those other things. Perhaps others can recommend groups that do a good job of those. Their algorithm is basically just targeting close state races, if I recall correctly. So like a state Senator from Arizona or something. Those are races where small donations go further than whatever big ticket Senate race gets a lot of press.

My problem with the campaign donations approach is it seems like a money pit.

Campaign organizers in both major parties benefit by pointing out how the other party keeps spending more money, as a way to encourage even more donations.

It also seems like a negative incentive to pass certain laws. "We need money for the next campaign so we can work on $TOPIC" might be a good fundraiser, so if those laws are passed then the funding stops ... or even switches to the other party.

Which party is working on strict campaign donation limits, which in this post-Citizens United era we know requires a constitutional amendment, or an overturn by the Supreme Court. Certainly not the Republicans, as Vance is asking the Supreme Court to strike down limits on political donations precisely because PACs are now so powerful. Nor do I see active engagement by the Democrats.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#99
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And consumers will pay the $12. It won’t make it viable to make the bike in the US for < $40.

These blanket tariffs are less about protecting/encouraging domestic manufacturing and more about renegotiating trade. At this current framing ("reciprocal tariffs") there is an implication that they are short term. The negotiations with Canada and Mexico demonstrate a tic-for-tat game theory in effect. Without introducing the tariffs as a long term position businesses will be less inclined to do the capital expendit…

Like I hope you’re right, but what are you basing this on?

Just based on the words that Trump actually says and writes, I find it difficult to come to any conclusion other than Trump strongly believes that trade imbalances are unfair, that tariffs will reshore manufacturing, and that reshoring manufacturing will make America “wealthier.”

But if Trump is bluffing, it’s not clear there’s anything these other countries could give that would satisfy Trump. Vietnam could remove all tariffs against the US and in all likelihood not even make a dent in their trade surplus. It’s very hard for a small, developing country like Vietnam to import lots of stuff from a rich, expensive country like the US. Many of the countries whacked with massive tariffs by the administration already have very open trade policies with the US. What is there to negotiate?

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#100
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My passion is robotics and engineering, and manufacturing covers both of those readily. While I have been blessed to have been born in the midwest where manufacturing is plentiful, the majority of the US is not so accessible for this work outside of a military base or airport. Some people do enjoy assembly line work, and in fact I would say a large amount of people want a reliable job with minimal mental overhead. Th…

> My passion is robotics and engineering, and manufacturing covers both of those readily. That's completely different than working on an assembly line. > Some people do enjoy assembly line work Who? How many? I don't think I've ever heard it (though I'm sure someone must). Do you like it? Why don't you work on assembly line. > would say a large amount of people want a reliable job with minimal mental overhead That's…

> That's completely different than working on an assembly line.

Manufacturing isn't defined by the assembly line, of course. Good data is hard to find, so take from it what you will, but the internet loosely suggests that only around 30% of manufacturing jobs are on the assembly line or adjacent to an assembly line. Anecdotal observation aligns with that, so I expect it is in the right ballpark.

> I don't think I've ever heard it

It is not so much the hot topic it once was, but when manufacturing was really in its decline you would frequently see in the news interviews with former manufacturing labour expressing such things as they lamented no longer being able to work in the industry.

It may not be sipping margaritas on the beach enjoyment, but on the spectrum it is unsurprising that many find it to be more enjoyable than other types of jobs. For as bad as you can imagine the assembly line to be, there is undoubtedly someone doing a job that is far worse.

> That's an ignorant, condescending description of assembly line work.

If these kinds of feelings are flooding your head, you have not considered the statement logically. That is not in good faith. Rationally, where do you find error in the statement?

> American companies can't find enough people with those skills as it is; there is no need for more of those jobs.

There is definitely an information problem. Manufacturing by and large happens in small town/rural areas (70% of it, according to the BLS), while people by and large live in large urban areas. The urban dwellers exclaim "Where are the jobs???" and the rural dwellers exclaim "Where are the workers???" It is a fascinating disconnect – something we see outside of manufacturing too.

You are right that this isn't apt to fix that problem. However, it is important to remember that the people calling for this aren't running complex mathematical models to ensure that moving manufacturing to the USA will be better for the world or whatever you think should be driving. They are simply in the mindset of: "I think I want to work in manufacturing. Give me that!" It is not a solution with well-considered grounding. It is an attempt to appease emotions.

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