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Bikes in the age of tariffs

renehersecycles.com

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Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#61

Post by eesmith »

davidw wrote: post #40
eesmith wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All I've gotten from my donations has been being added to mailing lists asking for more money to help fund the next election. Not for building grass roots organizations. Not for building resiliency. Not for active protests, and organized opposition by the politicians. I'm sure the political consultants got paid well though.

Depends where you send your money. I've used this in the past and as a huge bonus, I don't get added to 29494494292 mailing lists https://app.oath.vote/

From what I can tell, all that does is send money to campaigns. While not getting junk mail is great, it doesn't build long-term grass roots organizations or resiliency. It doesn't support active protests, or get politicians to vigorously oppose what's happening to the US.

I don't like how you can't see their recommendations for previous elections. That would help others judge if their "algorithm" is effective.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#62

Post by watwut »

whatshisface wrote: post #43
toomuchtodo wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The politics are important, and that effort must continue, but also directly targeting conservative voters economically. When they have distressed assets to sell, farmland, homes, businesses, I am ready to buy at a substantial discount. I have prepared to lever up with access to debt for this opportunity, and I recommend others who can do so. I want to buy when there is blood in the streets (economically), but only t…

They've already been swindled once, man.

They were not. Trump is doing exactly what they wanted. They just wanted others to be hurt.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#63

Post by mmooss »

9rx wrote: post #59
mmooss wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the hobby shop is comparable. Much manufacturing labor can be physically hard and damaging over the years. Many people spend their old age crippled from lifting heavy things all their lives, repetitive stress, and the associated serious injuries that eventually happen during tens of thousands of hours. You are pushed to work faster and harder for the entire day, with fewer breaks, etc. That's your life…

> My impression is that most people working in manufacturing You believe it is only the people currently working in manufacturing that want to see America create more manufacturing jobs? Surely any desire they might have to work in manufacturing is already fulfilled? That has certainly never been my impression. As far as I can see it is those who dream of working in manufacturing who make the case for the need for ma…

> You believe it is only the people currently working in manufacturing that want to see America create more manufacturing jobs?

I think working people [edit: a very general, loaded term] want higher-paying jobs, and some of them think manufacturing is good solution. I doubt their dream is working on the assembly line - that's not what people grow up dreaming of, or quit their higher-paying jobs to do.

Political leaders push manufacturing jobs for one reason or another. And I expect much of the support is from unions that want more jobs for their members - so yes, that's people currently in manufacturing.

Is there really demand for manufacturing jobs from the rest of the labor force, rather than any higher-paying, stable job? I don't know.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#64

Post by cycomanic »

osigurdson wrote: post #36

At least for high end mountain bikes, carbon frames are mostly made in Taiwan, not China.

Specialized is manufacturing in Taiwan (i.e. they use Merida IIRC?), but Trek manufactures at least partly in China AFAIK, Canyon frames are made in China (unless things changed recently).

Generally, many brands like e.g. Trek manufacture their highest end in Taiwan, but a lot of the mid- to high-level frames are still made in China, admittedly things might have changed since I last looked into this ~5 years ago.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#65

Post by 9rx »

mmooss wrote: post #63
9rx wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My impression is that most people working in manufacturing You believe it is only the people currently working in manufacturing that want to see America create more manufacturing jobs? Surely any desire they might have to work in manufacturing is already fulfilled? That has certainly never been my impression. As far as I can see it is those who dream of working in manufacturing who make the case for the need for ma…

> You believe it is only the people currently working in manufacturing that want to see America create more manufacturing jobs? I think working people [edit: a very general, loaded term] want higher-paying jobs, and some of them think manufacturing is good solution. I doubt their dream is working on the assembly line - that's not what people grow up dreaming of, or quit their higher-paying jobs to do. Political leade…

> I doubt their dream is working on the assembly line

Not all manufacturing is on an assembly line either, of course. That is especially true of the manufacturing Americans still see taking place in America.

That very well may be what new jobs will look like, should they be created, but emotions are not logical.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#66

Post by mmooss »

It's the enshittification of the US economy, in a way:

The method of enshittification, as I understand it, is to create businesses with a moat that prevents competition, cheapen the product in every way possible, and squeeze as much rent out as possible. Also, extract as much as possible via debt.

The tariffs are the moat. The debt I don't need to explain (though Dems aren't great with it either).

It's all the opposite of competitive business and free markets.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#67

Post by mmooss »

metalman wrote: post #35

the article ends with a FUD statement about certain products bieng no longer financialy viable in the world market due to them bieng priced out of the US, and insuficient demand, elsewhere. This can only be accepted if there is no question about the obscene profits generated by all large manufacturers, where "not financisly viable" means double digit profit and growth, rather than actualy unprofitable. If there is re…

The point is that there are products for which there is not enough of domestic market for domestic small manufacturers. There is enough market worldwide for those manufacturers.

> Globalisation, only works for the biggest players and sharpers

That's just not true. Many small businesses sell their products worldwide via online marketplaces. Have you downloaded software from another country? Bought something on Alibaba?

> once it picks up speed, will be a good thing for comunitys worldwide

How about the people in those communities paying higher prices for worse goods - the extra money going into the pockets of large domestic corporations.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#68

Post by palmotea »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #39
mullingitover wrote: post #13

I've never been a political donor, I might've thrown $20 into a small donation a couple times. However, it seems financially irresponsible not to pour everything up to the legal limit into punishing everyone involved in this tax hike to the maximum extent.

The politics are important, and that effort must continue, but also directly targeting conservative voters economically. When they have distressed assets to sell, farmland, homes, businesses, I am ready to buy at a substantial discount. I have prepared to lever up with access to debt for this opportunity, and I recommend others who can do so. I want to buy when there is blood in the streets (economically), but only t…

> ...but also directly targeting conservative voters economically.

That's kind of an asshole move. Did people react to having their communities and livelihoods damaged by neoliberalism, in a way not approved by economically advantaged software engineers? Don't try to solve their problems in a better way, try to fuck them even harder instead! We should teach 'em to get fucked and not complain!

If you want to target anyone, you should target the people who made a shit-ton of money off of neoliberalism, in a way that paved the path for Trump.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#69

Post by yongjik »

rstarast wrote: post #11

With the huge differences in per-country tariff, there seems to be a large incentive to reroute and relabel imports. E.g., build a bike frame in China, export it to a sister company in Japan, and export it to the US from there, claiming production in Japan. How effective are existing controls against that? (And what are they even, I'm ignorant.)

This assumes the difference in tariff stays consistent while you are setting up your multinational supply chain. The truth is that nobody has any idea what Trump will say tomorrow, never mind next quarter.

Re: Bikes in the age of tariffs

#70

Post by 9rx »

mmooss wrote: post #60
9rx wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I've never heard it either. You've never heard of the term "brain drain"? However, you must remember the bit about limiting who is allowed in the country. If you were a German with a hypothetical burning desire to flip burgers at In-N-Out Burger, what are the chances of you getting a work visa? I would say effectively nil. So you're not going to see those people even if they would arrive in a world without borders.

> If you were a German with a hypothetical burning desire to flip burgers at In-N-Out Burger, what are the chances of you getting a work visa? I would say effectively nil. So you're not going to see those people even if they would arrive in a world without borders. That's a great point. Legal immigration (to somewhere desireable) is not an option for much of the population. What interest do they have in preserving it…

> What interest do they have in preserving it?

A good question. It is quite possible that they don't – that a different segment of the population has that interest.

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