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The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

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Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No - because this eliminates entirely or shifts the majority of work from GPU to CPU - and Nvidia does not sell CPUs. I'm not even sure how to reply to this. GPUs are fundamentally much more efficient for AI inference than CPUs.

I think SIMD is not so much better than SIMT for solved problems as a level in claiming a problem as solved.

What do you think GPUs are? Basically SIMD asics.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#452
post #444
post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cost for interactive video would be a requirement of 10x bandwidth, basically to cover idle time. Not efficient but not impossible, and definitely wouldn’t change ISP business models. The latency benefit would outweigh the cost. Just absolutely instant video interaction.

Einstein would like to have a word… And for the little bit of impact queueing latency has ( if done well , i.e. no bufferbloat), I doubt anyone would notice the difference, honestly.

You’re arguing for a reduction in quality in internet services. People do notice those things. It’s like claiming people don’t care about slimmer iPhones. They do.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#453

The description of DeepSeek reminds me of my experience in networking in the late 80s - early 90s. Back then a really big motivator for Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) and fiber-to-the-home was the promise of video on demand, which was a huge market in comparison to the Internet of the day. Just about all the work in this area ignored the potential of advanced video coding algorithms, and assumed that broadcast TV-q…

Another example: people like to cite how the people who really made money in the CA gold rush were selling picks and shovels.

That only lasted so long. Then it was heavy machinery (hydraulics, excavators, etc)

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interest rates have an effect too, Uber and Airbnb were starting in a much more fundraising friendly time.

High interest rates are supposed to force the remaining businesses out there to be profitable, so in theory, the startups of today should be far faster to profitability or they burn out.

True, but it makes it much more difficult to get started in the first place.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget that "CUDA" involves more than language constructs and programming paradigms. With NVDA, you get tools to deploy at scale, maximize utilization, debug errors and perf issues, share HW between workflows, etc. These things are not cheap to develop.

It might not be cheap to develop them but if you can save $10B in hardware costs by doing so you're probably looking at positive ROI.

Yeah, I mean, 9 women can make a baby in a month so why not?

Oh wait, it takes years to do all that and in the meantime you're wasting energy on not staying at the forefront of a hot tech trend.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#456
post #125

Looks like huge astroturfing effort from CCP. I am seeing these coordinated propaganda inside every AI related sub on reddit, on social media and now - here.

Yeah I get that feeling too. Lots of old school astroturfing going on.

aand I am buried. China CCP is attacking on all vectors.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> NVIDIAs moat Offtopic, but your comment finally pushed me over the edge to semantic satiation [1] regarding the word "moat". It is incredible how this word turned up a short while ago and now it seems to be a key ingredient of every second comment. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semantic_satiation

The word moat was first used in english in the 15th century https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/moat

Yes my wording was rubbish I should have said "tuned up" in the HN bubble. Quick ctrl-f shows 35 uses in this thread without loading all comments.

I did not mean that it was literally invented a short while ago - a few months ago I had to look up what it means though (not native English).

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#458
post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can see close to zero possibility that the majority of the work will be shifted to the CPU. Anything a CPU can do can just be done better with specialised GPU hardware.

> Anything a CPU can do can just be done better Nope. Anything inheriantly serial is better off on the CPU due to caching and it's architecture. Many things that are highly parallizable are getting GPU enabled. Games and ML are GPU by default, but many things are migrating to CUDA. You need both for cheap, high performance computing. They are different workloads.

The graphics in games are GPU by default. But the game logic itself is seldom run on the CPU as far as I can tell.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think SIMD is not so much better than SIMT for solved problems as a level in claiming a problem as solved.

What do you think GPUs are? Basically SIMD asics.

That's also what AVX is but with a conservative number of threads.. If you really understand your problem I don't see why you would need 32 threads of much smaller data size or why you would want that far away from your CPU.

Whether your new coprocessor or instructions look more like a GPU or something else doesn't really matter if we are done squinting and calling it graphics like problems and/or claiming it needs a lot more than a middle class PC.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#460
post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you say more about using RL at inference time, ideally with a pointer to read more about it? This doesn’t fit into my mental model, in a couple of ways. The main way is right in the name: “learning” isn’t something that happens at inference time; inference is generating results from already-trained models. Perhaps you’re conflating RL with multistage (e.g. “chain of thought”) inference? Or maybe you’re talking ab…

I wasn't clear. Model weights aren't changing at inference time. I meant at inference time the model will output a sequence of thoughts and actions to perform tasks given to it by the user. For instance, to answer a question it will search the web, navigate through some sites, scroll, summarize, etc. You can model this as a game played by emitting a sequence of actions in a browser. RL is the technique you want to tr…

Makes sense, thanks. I wonder whether human web-browsing strategies are optimal for use in a LLM, e.g. given how much faster LLMs are at reading the webpages they find, compared to humans? Regardless, it does seem likely that Google’s dataset is good for something.
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