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The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

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Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#441

Post by latchkey »

eigenvalue wrote: post #410
latchkey wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

George Hotz tried to extort AMD into giving him $500k in free hardware and $2m cash, and they politely declined.

Was arguably not that polite and caused them some bad PR IMHO

You have to know the history and a bit of inside rumors to understand what was really going on.

What came out of it (and the semianalysis article) was that Anush would step up to the plate and work on improving the software.

George making noise is just a momentary blip in time that will be forgotten a week later…

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#444

Post by lxgr »

vFunct wrote: post #396
lxgr wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You’re basically guaranteeing a virtual switched circuit Which means you need state (and the overhead that goes with it) for each connection within the network . That's horribly inefficient, and precisely the reason packet-switching won. > An internet based on ATM would have been amazing. No, we'd most likely be paying by the socket connection (as somebody has to pay for that state keeping overhead), which sounds h…

The cost for interactive video would be a requirement of 10x bandwidth, basically to cover idle time. Not efficient but not impossible, and definitely wouldn’t change ISP business models. The latency benefit would outweigh the cost. Just absolutely instant video interaction.

Einstein would like to have a word…

And for the little bit of impact queueing latency has (if done well, i.e. no bufferbloat), I doubt anyone would notice the difference, honestly.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#446

Post by eigenvalue »

indymike wrote: post #239

This story could be applied to every tech breakthrough. We start where the breakthrough is moated by hardware, access to knowledge, and IP. Over time: - Competition gets crucial features into cheaper hardware - Work-arounds for most IP are discovered - Knowledge finds a way out of the castle This leads to a "Cambrian explosion" of new devices and software that usually gives rise to some game-changing new ways to use…

Yes this is exactly right. All you need is the right incentives and enough capital and markets will find away to breech any moat that’s not enforced via regulations.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#447

Post by rahimnathwani »

liuliu wrote: post #294
andrewgross wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Got it. I’ll review the paper again for that portion. However, it still sounds like the end result is not VRAM savings but efficiently and speed improvements.

Yeah, if you look DeepSeek v3 paper deeper, each saving on each axis is understandable. Combined, they reach some magic number people can talk about (10x!): FP8: ~1.6 to 2x faster than BF16 / FP16; MLA: cut KV cache size by 4x (I think); MTP: converges 2x to 3x faster; DualPipe: maybe ~1.2 to 1.5x faster. If you look deeper, many of these are only applicable to training (we already do FP8 for inference, MTP is to imp…

  we already do FP8 for inference
Yes but, for a given size of model, Deepseek claims that a model trained with FP8 will work better than a model quantized to FP8. If that's true then, for a given quality, a native FP8 model will be smaller, and have cheaper inference.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#448

Post by kalleboo »

stevesimmons wrote: post #433
bayindirh wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I generally travel to Europe, and it baffles why I can't use VoLTE there (maybe my roaming doesn't allow that), and fallback to 3G for voice calls. At home, I use VoLTE and the sound is almost impeccable, very high quality, but in the places I roam to, what I get is FM quality 3G sound. It's not that cellular network is incapable of that sound quality, but I don't get to experience it except my home country. Interest…

In which countries? 3G networks in many European countries were shut off in 2022-2024. The few remaining ones will go too over the next couple of years. VoLTE is 5G, common throughout Europe. However the handset manufacturer may need to qualify each handset model with local carriers before they will connect using VoLTE. As I understand the situation, Google for instance has only qualified Pixel phones for 5G in 19 of…

> VoLTE is 5G

Technically, on 5G you have "VoNR"[0], where VoLTE is over 4G.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voice_over_NR

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#449

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

rattray wrote: post #372
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #295

I'm curious if someone more informed than me can comment on this part: > Besides things like the rise of humanoid robots, which I suspect is going to take most people by surprise when they are rapidly able to perform a huge number of tasks that currently require an unskilled (or even skilled) human worker (e.g., doing laundry ... I've always said that the real test for humanoid AI is folding laundry, because it's an…

https://physicalintelligence.company is working on this – see a demo where their robot does ~exactly what you said, I believe based on a "generalist" model (not pretrained on the tasks): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-UTyb7lOEw

That's the same video I commented on below: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42844967

There's a huge gulf between what is shown in that video and what is needed to replace a human doing that task.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#450

Post by niccl »

delusional wrote: post #383
rattray wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://physicalintelligence.company is working on this – see a demo where their robot does ~exactly what you said, I believe based on a "generalist" model (not pretrained on the tasks): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-UTyb7lOEw

There are so many cuts in that 1 minute video, Jesus Christ. You'd think it was produced for TikTok.

There's a laundry folding section at the end of that isn't cut. Looks reasonably impressive, if your standard is slightly above that of a teenager
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