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The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

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Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#121
post #97

The point about using FP32 for training is wrong. Mixed precision (FP16 multiplies, FP32 accumulates) has been use for years – the original paper came out in 2017.

Fair enough, but that still uses a lot more memory during training than what DeepSeek is doing.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#122

When he says better linux drivers than AMD he's strictly talking about for AI, right? Because for video the opposite has been the case for as far back as I can remember.

Yes, AMD drivers work fine for games and things like that. Their problem is they basically only focused on games and other consumer applications and, as a result, ceded this massive growth market to Nvidia. I guess you can sort of give them a pass because they did manage to kill their archival Intel in data center CPUs but it’s a massive strategic failure if you look at how much it has cost them.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#123
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I don’t know who George Hotz is, but why isn’t AMD making better drivers for AMD?

George Hotz is a hot Internet celebrity that has basically accomplished nothing of value but has a large cult following. You can safely ignore. (Famous for hacking the PS3–except he just took credit for a separate group’s work. And for making a self-driving car in his garage—except oh wait that didn’t happen either.)

What about comma.ai?

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#124

If we are to get to AGI why do we need to train on all data? That's silly, and all we get is compression and probabliatic retrieval. Intelligence by definition is not compression, but ability to think and act according to new data, based on experience. Trully AGI models will work on the this principle, not on best compression of as much data as possible. We need a new approach.

Actually, compression is an incredibly good way to think about intelligence. If you understand something really well then you can compress it a lot. If you can compress most of human knowledge effectively without much reconstruction error while shrinking it down by 99.5%, then you must have in the process arrived at a coherent and essentially correct world model, which is the basis of effective cognition.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#126
post #119

Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…

> - Better Linux drivers than AMD Unless something radically changed in the last couple years, I am not sure where you got this from? (I am specifically talking about GPUs for computer usage rather than training/inference)

> Unless something radically changed in the last couple years, I am not sure where you got this from?

This was the first thing that stuck out to me when I skimmed the article, and the reason I decided to invest the time reading it all. I can tell the author knows his shit and isn't just parroting everyone's praise for AMD Linux drivers.

> (I am specifically talking about GPUs for computer usage rather than training/inference)

Same here. I suffered through the Vega 64 after everyone said how great it is. So many AMD-specific driver bugs, AMD driver devs not wanting to fix them for non-technical reasons, so many hard-locks when using less popular software.

The only complaints about Nvidia drivers I found were "it's proprietary" and "you have to rebuild the modules when you update the kernel" or "doesn't work with wayland".

I'd hesitate to ever touch an AMD GPU again after my experience with it, haven't had a single hick-up for years after switching to Nvidia.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. You just need to see a slight deceleration in projected revenue growth (which has been running 120%+ YoY recently) and some downward pressure on gross margins, and maybe even just some market share loss, and the stock could easily fall 25% from that.

AMD P/E ratio is 109, NVDA is 56. Which stock is overvalued?

Intel had a great P/E a couple of years ago as well :)

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#128
post #119

Great article but it seems to have a fatal flaw. As pointed out in the article, Nvidia has several advantages including: - Better Linux drivers than AMD - CUDA - pytorch is optimized for Nvidia - High-speed interconnect Each of the advantages is under attack: - George Hotz is making better drivers for AMD - MLX, Triton, JAX: Higher level abstractions that compile down to CUDA - Cerbras and Groq solve the interconnect…

> - Better Linux drivers than AMD Unless something radically changed in the last couple years, I am not sure where you got this from? (I am specifically talking about GPUs for computer usage rather than training/inference)

they are, unless you get distracted by things like licensing and out of tree drivers and binary blobs. If you'd rather pontificate about open source philosophy and rights than get stuff done, go right ahead.

Re: The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia

#130
post #48

This is excellent writing. Even if you have no interest at all in stock market shorting strategies there is plenty of meaty technical content in here, including some of the clearest summaries I've seen anywhere of the interesting ideas from the DeepSeek v3 and R1 papers.

Thanks Simon! I’m a big fan of your writing (and tools) so it means a lot coming from you.

Many thanks for writing this - its extremely interesting and very well written - I feel like I've been brought up to date which is hard in AI world!
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