381–390 of 678 posts
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It's naive for anyone to think that Elon won't use his influence in government to empower his companies and weaken his competitors.
I think he is less worried about competitors than the government itself. Specifically, unelected bureaucrats with lots of power and few responsibilities.
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> The product market fit is fantastic. This isn't the first time I've heard random strangers discussing it in public. Hardly the evidence of PMF. There is always something new in the zeitgeist, that every one is talking about, some more so than others . 2 years before it was VR, few years before that NFTs and blockchain everything, before that it was self driving cars before that personal voice assistants like Siri a…
Did you really just compare the thing that makes me able to code and ship 5x faster to... NFTs?
However that kind of user in my experience is rare , vast majority are junior developers who do not understand the output well enough and now generate 5x of it that I have to review and they no longer make the effort to understand any foundational concept .
This is not new, the rise in popularity of StackOverflow created a class of developers who didn’t want to spend the time to learn properly reading the manual.
In itself reducing the skill level needed to be productive is not inherently bad, it was PhD in CS could only program in 70s and 80s. Each generation of tech and abstraction opened up software development to newer class of employees.
However the difference is the industry desperately needed expansion each time because PCs became popular or the desktop or mobile devices etc . There was enormous demand for new applications both personal and professional which couldn’t be satisfied with kind of volume CS research programs could fulfill.
There is no such transformation currently , there aren’t a new class of users or major applications coming up in a such high volume, that quality drop is compensated by quantity .
There is lot more need for higher quality products as software market is plateauing from the highs mobile adoption gave.
Important context: Elon Musk's close friend from the PayPal days and fellow libertarian tech billionaire David Sacks has been selected as the Trump admin's czar for AI and crypto. This is why OpenAI and Sam Altman are understandably concerned.
For additional context: These PayPal guys are very much contra Google and YC (Sam/pg).
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> Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? Yes, frequently and loudly. When Altman was collecting the award at Cambridge the other year, protesters dropped in on the after-award public talk/Q&A session, and he actively empathised with the protestors . > So far we are multiple years in with much investment and little return, and no obvious large-scale product-market fit, much l…
> For current standards of what intelligence means, we'd better hope we don't get ASI in the next decade or two, because if and when that happens then "humans need not apply" — and by extension, foundational assumptions of economics may just stop holding true. I'm not sure that we need superintelligence for that to be the case - it may depend on whether you include physical ability in the definition of intelligence.…
Until a problem space is "solved", you will still need AIs that are more capable than those with 110 IQ to review the other AIs work. All evidence points to "mistakes will be made" with any AI system I have used and any human I have worked with.
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> The product market fit is fantastic. This isn't the first time I've heard random strangers discussing it in public. Hardly the evidence of PMF. There is always something new in the zeitgeist, that every one is talking about, some more so than others . 2 years before it was VR, few years before that NFTs and blockchain everything, before that it was self driving cars before that personal voice assistants like Siri a…
Self-driving won't take over by just being available in the new cars people are buying anyway. It'll take over when people find it cheaper to ride robotaxis than to own a vehicle at all. That's potentially a much quicker transition, requiring significantly fewer new vehicles.
If I already own a car, for which am paying an emi and no hope of selling for good value (because market is dropping as newest buyers disappear) it won’t make economic sense for me till I generate LTV from the car to switch over .
Either way it till take 1-2 decades after ubiquitous L5 availability, even if that was possible at all and soon
"Our biggest tool is the moral high ground. To retain this, we must: Try our best to remain a non-profit. AI is going to shake up the fabric of society, and our fiduciary duty should be to humanity."
Well, reading this in 2024 with (so-called) "Open"AI going for-profit, it aged like milk.
Also a few lines later, he writes:
"We don’t encourage paper writing, and so paper acceptance isn’t a measure we optimize."
So much for openness and moral high ground!
This whole thread is a masterpiece in dishonesty, hypocrisy and narcissistic power plays for any wannabe villains.
It's amusing to see they keep their masks on even in internal communications though. I'd have thought the messiah complex and benevolence parade is only for the public, but I was wrong.
I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…
What keeps people from accepting this new reality? Is it ego, a fear of irrelevance due to AI inevitably eclipsing them in their most prized aptitudes?
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Common, VR, NFTs and blockchain were always abysses of void looking for a usecase. Driving cars maybe, but development has been stalling for 15 years.
I'd say VR is just another form factor for games rather than being a void looking for a use-case, but I agree about NFTs and cryptocurrency*. * technically not all blockchains because git and BitTorrent are both also hash trees and therefore non-currency block-chains, but definitely the cryptocurrency uses of them.
However the hype cycle just as now in AI claimed it will change everything, not hey here is interesting new thing and it is going be used in select applications . Nobody is investing billions and billions on that pitch
Google/Gemini have none of this baggage.
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Expiring tokens is a pretty standard business model. Are they lying and saying the tokens never expire?
Nope they aren't lying, but they lost me as a customer. My Arby's gift card lasted longer than my OpenAI credits, it's a horrible business model and I wish them luck, but I won't be a part of supporting bad models.
The gift card companies put up signs saying "never expires!" as advertisements in those states.
Ethics aren't exactly abundant with this stuff.