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Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

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Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#331

Post by ben_w »

eastbound wrote: post #278
manquer wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The product market fit is fantastic. This isn't the first time I've heard random strangers discussing it in public. Hardly the evidence of PMF. There is always something new in the zeitgeist, that every one is talking about, some more so than others . 2 years before it was VR, few years before that NFTs and blockchain everything, before that it was self driving cars before that personal voice assistants like Siri a…

Common, VR, NFTs and blockchain were always abysses of void looking for a usecase. Driving cars maybe, but development has been stalling for 15 years.

I'd say VR is just another form factor for games rather than being a void looking for a use-case, but I agree about NFTs and cryptocurrency*.

* technically not all blockchains because git and BitTorrent are both also hash trees and therefore non-currency block-chains, but definitely the cryptocurrency uses of them.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#332

Post by paweladamczuk »

hn1986 wrote: post #226
agnosticmantis wrote: post #196

From Musk's email: "Frankly, what surprises me is that the AI community is taking this long to figure out concepts. It doesn’t sound super hard. High-level linking of a large number of deep nets sounds like the right approach or at least a key part of the right approach." Genuine question I've always had is, are these charlatans conscious of how full of shit they are, or are they really high on their own stuff? Also…

You should read what he says about software engineering. He's clearly clueless

I'm interested, can you point me to some interviews or posts with him talking about it?

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#333

Post by swyx »

> Here is a cool video of our bot doing something rather clever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-vxbREX5ck&feature=youtu.be....

> The HER algorithm (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dz_HuzgMzxo) can learn to solve many low-dimensional robotics tasks that were previously unsolvable very rapidly. It is non-obvious, simple, and effective.

> In 6 months, we will accomplish at least one of: single-handed Rubik’s cube, pen spinning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDavyRnEPrI), Chinese balls spinning (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9N1duIl4Fc) using the HER algorithm

taken down now. anyone have it?

> Lock down an overwhelming hardware advantage. The 4-chip card that says he can build in 2 years is effectively TPU 3.0 and (given enough quantity) would allow us to be on an almost equal footing with Google on compute.

who is this? it isnt cerebras. sambanova?

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#334

Post by ben_w »

bee_rider wrote: post #258
pj_mukh wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Basically, people who use Office have extremely specific expectations." Interesting point, but to OP's point- This wasn't true when Office was first introduced and Office still created a domineering market share. In fact, I'd argue these moat-by-idiosyncracy features are a result of that market share. There is nothing stopping OpenAI from developing their own over time.

Does office actually have a moat? I thought the kids liked Google docs nowadays. (No opinion as to which is actually better, the actual thing people should do is write LaTeX in vim. You can even share documents! Just have everybody attach to the same tmux session and take turns).

If you're writing a spreadsheet in LaTeX, I suspect something has gone very wrong somewhere along the line.

Spreadsheets are as much a calculation environment as they are a table of figures, and if you're technical enough to be writing docs in LaTeX you should be doing the calculations in a more rigorous environment where you don't copy the formulas between cells.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#335

Post by zeroonetwothree »

behnamoh wrote: post #327
ben_w wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 2 years before it was VR, few years before that NFTs and blockchain everything, before that it was self driving cars before that personal voice assistants like Siri and so on . I never saw people talking about VR in public, nor NFTs, and the closest I got to seeing blockchain in public were adverts, not hearing random people around me chatting about it. The only people I ever saw in real life talking about self-dri…

> ... and that "singularities" are a sign something is wrong with the model. Einstein thought that way too because his model predicted singularities in space-time fabric. Turns out he was wrong. Nowadays we call them blackholes and have images of them too.

He wasn’t exactly wrong in that the model still breaks down for black holes. Even though we know they exist we don’t know what goes inside them.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#337

Post by __loam »

pembrook wrote: post #248
__loam wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not talking about your anecdotes, they're talking about the capex and returns. Which are overwhelmingly negative.

Yea, I mean, if it can't show a return in the very short term, is it even worth doing? How could something possibly develop into being profitable after years of not being so? All you have to do is point to bankrupt bookseller Amazon, whom that dumb Jeff Bezos ran into the ground with his money-losing strategy for years. Clearly it doesn't work!

There's growth focus and there's doing some of the largest fundraising rounds in the history of silicon valley during a time when debt is the most expensive it's been in decades and still barely keeping the lights on because your service is so unprofitable.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#339

Post by chrisco255 »

kulahan wrote: post #199
marcosdumay wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Land on Mars is cheap... But no, I really doubt that's all it takes. Unless you discount all of the R&D costs as SpaceX operational expenses.

I imagine that's what he's doing. He's willing to put a lot of company money into getting the city on Mars started, because if he's first there, he's gonna set himself (or his dynasty?) up to make hundreds of billions of dollars. Being effectively in control of your own planet? Neat. Scary too.

He's already made hundreds of billions of dollars though? A permanent Martian colony is an incredibly ambitious endeavor and even with a trillion dollars there's a reasonable chance the colony fails.

Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit

#340

Post by __loam »

zachthewf wrote: post #137
__loam wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not talking about your anecdotes, they're talking about the capex and returns. Which are overwhelmingly negative.

I mean, inference costs have decreased like 1000x in a few years. OpenAI is the fastest growing startup by revenue, ever. How foolish do you have be to be worrying about ROI right now? The companies that are building out the datacenters produce billions per year in free cash flow. Maybe OP would prefer a dividend?

I would definitely be worried about ROI if my main product was something my big tech competition could copy easily because they did the research that led to my product.
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