Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nobody seems to remember how the Segway was going to change our world, backed by many of the VC power figures at the time + Steve Jobs.
You mean Steve Wozniak. Close but no LSD
What makes you so sure about the LSD?
Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
181–190 of 678 posts
Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
#182Earlier quoted context omitted.
> biggest GPU compute cluster in the world right now This is wildly untrue, and most in industry know that. Unfortunately you won't have a source just like I won't, but just wanted to voice that you're way off here.
> This is wildly untrue, and most in industry know that. Unfortunately you won't have a source just like I won't, but just wanted to voice that you're way off here. Sure, we probably can't know for sure who has the biggest as they try to keep that under wraps for competition purposes, but it's definitely not "wildly untrue." A simple search will show that they have if not the biggest, damn near one of the biggest. Ju…
i've physically visited a larger one, it is not even a well kept secret. we all see each other at the same airports and hotels.
Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
#183It's an aside, but these sorts of timelines are very American centric. I don't know when your autumn ("fall") or summer are in relation to September. Don't mix keys here, either use months or quarters, not a mix of things including some relative to a specific hemisphere.
OpenAI is an American company
And they intend to "determine the fate of the world". As such, communication shouldn't be American centric.
Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
#184Maybe a weird question, but how does a capitalist economy work where AGI-performed-labor is categorically less expensive than human-performed labor? Do most people who labor for wages just go unemployed, and then bankrupt, and then die?
The way comparative advantage works, even if an AGI is better than me at Task A and Task B, if it is better at Task A than Task B, it'll do Task A and I'll do Task B.
I think a lot of people confuse AGI with infinite AGI.
Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
#185Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? Yes, frequently and loudly. When Altman was collecting the award at Cambridge the other year, protesters dropped in on the after-award public talk/Q&A session, and he actively empathised with the protestors . > So far we are multiple years in with much investment and little return, and no obvious large-scale product-market fit, much l…
> and he actively empathised with the protestors. https://www.simplypsychology.org/narcissistic-mirroring.html
Even if so, that's still showing awareness of what his critics are critical of.
Now, can you make a falsifiable prediction: what would a narcissist do that a normal person would not, such that you can tell if he's engaging in a narcissist process rather that what your own link also says is a perfectly normal and healthy behaviour?
Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
#186Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? Yes, frequently and loudly. When Altman was collecting the award at Cambridge the other year, protesters dropped in on the after-award public talk/Q&A session, and he actively empathised with the protestors . > So far we are multiple years in with much investment and little return, and no obvious large-scale product-market fit, much l…
> When Altman was collecting the award at Cambridge the other year, protesters dropped in on the after-award public talk/Q&A session, and he actively empathised with the protestors. He always does that to give himself cover, but he has clearly shown that his words mean very little in this regard. He always dodges criticism. He used to talk about the importance of him being accountable to the OpenAI board and them bei…
Wasn't he fired for questionable reasons? I thought everyone wanted him back, and that's why he was able to return. It was, as I remember, just the board that wanted him out.
I imagine if he was doing something truly nefarious, opinions might have been different, but I have no idea what kind of cult of personality he has at that company, so I might be wrong here.
Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
#187Earlier quoted context omitted.
That same space company said that they'd do point to point commercial travel using rockets. As for significantly outperforming: Ask NASA, price per launch has gone UP not DOWN. What's the point of reusability if it doesn't affect the bottom line in a positive way?
> That same space company said that they'd do point to point commercial travel using rockets. I think they still hope to achieve that in the future. It is just there are a lot of more critical milestones they need to hit first before they try to tackle that.
The Department of Defence is already very interested in that capability
Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
#188I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…
I'm going to favorite this thread and come back with a comment in 10 years. I think it will be fun to revisit this conversation.
If you really don't think that this line of research and development is leading to AGI then I think you are being hopelessly myopic.
>robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020
There are some incredible advances happening _right now_ in robotics largely due to advances in AI. Obviously 2020 was not exactly correct, but also we had COVID which kind of messed up everything in the business world. And arguing that something didn't happen in 2020 but instead happened in 2025 or 2030, is sort of being pedantic isn't it?
Being a pessimist makes you sound smart and world-weary, but you are just so wrong.
Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
#189Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Wrong ? OpenAI's non-profit+for-profit structure is detailed at their own site: https://openai.com/our-structure/ It's a non-profit with a for-profit subsidiary. Please elaborate on "wrong."
(I'm @moralestapia, but on my phone) Non-profits have a mission that has to be aligned with a public/social benefit. No amount of structuring would help you if it turns out that your activities benefit a private individual/organization instead of whatever public benefit you wrote when setting up the non-profit. All it takes if a judge ruling that [1] is happening, and then it's over for you and all your derived entit…
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Re: Elon Musk wanted an OpenAI for-profit
#190I guess it's not news but it is pretty wild to see the level of millenarianism espoused by all of these guys. The board of OpenAI is supposedly going to "determine the fate of the world", robotics to be "completely solved" by 2020, the goal of OpenAI is to "avoid an AGI dictatorship". Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? So far we are multiple years in with much investment…
> Is nobody in these very rich guys' spheres pushing back on their thought process? Yes, frequently and loudly. When Altman was collecting the award at Cambridge the other year, protesters dropped in on the after-award public talk/Q&A session, and he actively empathised with the protestors . > So far we are multiple years in with much investment and little return, and no obvious large-scale product-market fit, much l…
> For current standards of what intelligence means, we'd better hope we don't get ASI in the next decade or two, because if and when that happens then "humans need not apply" — and by extension, foundational assumptions of economics may just stop holding true.
I'm not sure that we need superintelligence for that to be the case - it may depend on whether you include physical ability in the definition of intelligence.
At the point that we have an AI that's capable of every task that say a 110 IQ human is, including manipulating objects in the physical world, then basically everyone is unemployed unless they're cheaper than the AI.