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Tesla Robotaxi

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#641

Post by modeless »

nikcub wrote: post #507
modeless wrote: post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah Boston Dynamics is way better at locomotion, but their advantage in manipulation is smaller. You also won't see 50 at the same time like Optimus today. Tesla's advantage will be manufacturing. Optimus has improved quickly. Gen 3 should be better. They showed Gen 3 hands today that looked pretty good.

I don't think Tesla have an advantage in manufacturing. China today is what Japan was in the 70s and their processes are so fucking good. You can't win on manufacturing - this is, after all, a nation that is now building Volvo's better than the Swedes did. Tesla fell into the China partnership trap, where the gov subsidises you and you open a "partnership" there, meanwhile they take your IP and knowledge for the bene…

Tesla's advantage over Boston Dynamics will be manufacturing. Over China, it will have to be innovation and software. China is going to be much harder to beat than Boston Dynamics for sure. But remember that Tesla is no stranger to competing with Chinese companies and they are doing OK vs BYD today and not just in the US, with the bestselling car model in the world and in China. I think the "partnership trap" was more relevant years ago; today China has a lot less need to steal tech, at least in the domain of car manufacturing (note that Tesla is not manufacturing Optimus in China).

It's hardly new news that Elon is an awkward presenter and it isn't relevant to future performance of Tesla. You have to look at the pace of improvement of what Tesla is doing. Among humanoid companies that started in 2021 or later Tesla is the furthest along and improving much faster than the likes of Boston Dynamics. While they are still far behind, they have the time and the funding to catch up.

The Cybercab demo was an amusement park ride (and Elon explicitly billed it as such), however Tesla's FSD is released to the public and can be directly evaluated. While it is not yet near Waymo it is impressively good as of this month and the rate of improvement is very fast now. It just drove me across town for 20 minutes and I didn't have to touch the steering wheel a single time. It was incapable of that on that specific drive just two months ago. And I have the less powerful older variant of the Autopilot computer.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#643

Post by grecy »

kombookcha wrote: post #178
BluSyn wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They literally showed a clip of a robot cleaning the car in the announcement. Also perfect task for Optimus.

I straight up do not believe that Optimus is capable of vacuuming a car unassisted without damaging itself, the car or the hoover.

Like any robot on a vehicle assembly line, it’s going to be trivial to get it to follow a pre programmed path. All the cars it has to clean are identical…. So actually it will be simple.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#644

Post by danso »

rapsey wrote: post #225
Animats wrote: post #188

It's amusing that this was at the Warner back lot, which is out in Burbank. Not Paramount or Universal, which are both in Hollywood. It would have been embarrassing to do this at Paramount or Universal, because those are in Waymo's service area. People would have arrived at the event in real self driving taxis.

Waymos however need thousands of dollars of hardware to achieve this and only work in limited areas. Tesla's bet is a lot more risky but also with a lot more potential.

But Teslas vehicles can’t operate ANYWHERE autonomously — not even with supervision inside the closed loop tunnels in Las Vegas [0] — 6+ years after Musk said autopilot/FSD was capable of driving itself coast to coast.

Whenever Teslas manage to offer autonomous driving, what makes you think LIDAR etc will still cost what it does now?

[0] https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/news-columns/road-warrior...

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#645

Post by modeless »

7thpower wrote: post #556
modeless wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has no rear window and wacky doors and only two seats. It would not sell. It's purpose built as an autonomous taxi, where those choices make perfect sense. They are also doing a $25k car, they just aren't revealing it today.

I thought they said they were scrapping the $25k car?

Reuters said that, and Elon directly denied it. I think it is likely that the $25k car was delayed somewhat from whatever its initial plan was, but not canceled.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#647

Post by iknowstuff »

saturn8601 wrote: post #278
iknowstuff wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The interior is minimalist, and ever since the model 3’s release, all other brands have been slowly trending in its direction. The 2024 model 3 interior is beautiful to the point that all the pointless plastic widgets present on other OEMs are kinda hilarious to look at. what makes you think the mazda 3 is the main competition?

>and ever since the model 3’s release, all other brands have been slowly trending in its direction. This is probably the most untrue statement you've made all evening and you have made plenty. >The 2024 model 3 interior is beautiful to the point that all the pointless plastic widgets present on other OEMs are kinda hilarious to look at. The market seems to disagree given that the gasoline competition is still the ove…

yup it’s only the world’s best selling vehicle :) they have swept the market.

indeed interiors of most other brands have morphed into a large screen instead of the 2010 circus of buttons. Model 3/Y is very competitive with premium german/japanese brands like bmw/audi etc.

I don’t disagree their pricing goals are usually not really met unless given the discount of inflation.

fyi EVs are 25% of the global car market and growing.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#648

Post by danso »

wilg wrote: post #626
oblio wrote: post #525

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mercedes, unlike every other automaker, including Tesla, *takes over legal liability* in those circumstances. They're putting their money where Musk's mouth is. And next year it will go up to 85kmph, close to highway speeds.

They’re taking legal liability when you are driving a straight line on selected freeways going less than 40mph and with a car in front of you to follow during the day. This doesn’t demonstrate advanced capability, just limited scope.

Tesla’s system is purportedly far more advanced — do you believe that they could offer the same safety promises and legal protection for that limited scope if they wanted to?

(leaving aside for the moment, why they wouldn’t want to)

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#649

Post by grecy »

echoangle wrote: post #250
justahuman74 wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trains are great Unless you think LA should go London/NYC style and build a load of stations, there is still the problem of what to do if you're not near a station at the start or end. If it involves a bus connection, people will just drive

> Unless you think LA should go London/NYC style and build a load of stations Why shouldn’t one think that? Wouldn’t this be a good solution?

Absolutely it’s a great solution. It will cost a few hundred billion and be done in the 2050s at best.

When do we start? Call our local representative?

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#650

Post by lokar »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #604
ryandvm wrote: post #576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump is Tesla's only hope. Elon knows Trump is a transactional person and as long as he supports Trump, he can get the necessary governmental treatment his companies need to survive (tax credits, Chinese EV tariffs, some sort of asinine Mars mission).

EV tariffs are going to happen throughout the entire west with or without Trump. Western governments have discovered the Chinese plan to decimate western manufacturing by subsidizing it at over 10 X the rate required and seen in the west. Vehicles matter because they are a means for war machine production.

He needs more than that. Both Mercedes and BMW are eating into high end Tesla sales.
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