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Tesla Robotaxi

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#531

Post by piyuv »

oblio wrote: post #382

You know what screams "democratizate transportation"? 99% single occupancy vehicles (well, that's democratic, I'll grant them that) controlled by a corporation known for a million abuses and basically no oversight, everything managed by faceless software. Let me tell you an Uber story. I've been an Uber customer across multiple countries for many years, and one day, I had a layover in London. So I tried to book an Ub…

From https://www.asomo.co/p/the-luddites-guide-to-defending-physi...:

> As a thought experiment, imagine if all forms of transport except Uber were removed from our society, resulting in total ‘Uberfication’. What would happen in this ‘convenient’ society?

> For a start, you’d notice that your entire ability to move depended on an institution. While the first few weeks of trips might not bug you, over time it would begin to feel deeply stifling, even oppressive. The mass dependence on a intermediary would not only transfer mass power to Uber, but would in turn unlock a host of other problems:

He goes on to explain these very well.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#532

Post by aziaziazi »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #484
oblio wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are normal taxis any different? Most of them only have one or two passengers. Typically in the backseat which gets kind of crowded with more people. You can get bigger taxis of course. But I'm talking about the common sedan model with the driver in the front. An unused front seat on the right. And the one or two passengers in the back. Exactly the same thing. Except there's no need for the driver. We need to invest…

I don't think what you outline here, which I agree would be a good thing, and what Tesla announced are mutually exclusive. In fact, I think Tesla's announcement is just about the most concrete thing from any car manufacturer that gets us closer to that. Getting rid of drivers means less space for parking is needed. It also means better utilization of the vehicles. So, less cars on the road. And they'll be electric so…

Americans talking about 2.5T / 5m length cars to "save space" is tragically comic. The bus form factor is a good think but it can’t realistically compete with the one already in fonction in hundred of thousand cities. Sure it will have a market share from airports to luxury resorts and may replace some Dubai lines but that’s not a "democratic" transport.

Elon’s green city is a marketing pitch, nothing more or less. A marketing pitch is far from being "exactly" a "walkable, bikeable city with public transportation".

On the public transportation side, GP skepticism come from that tech giga corps are know for their kafkaïan (at best) or hostile (at worst) customer services.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#533

Post by oblio »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #484
oblio wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are normal taxis any different? Most of them only have one or two passengers. Typically in the backseat which gets kind of crowded with more people. You can get bigger taxis of course. But I'm talking about the common sedan model with the driver in the front. An unused front seat on the right. And the one or two passengers in the back. Exactly the same thing. Except there's no need for the driver. We need to invest…

I don't think what you outline here, which I agree would be a good thing, and what Tesla announced are mutually exclusive. In fact, I think Tesla's announcement is just about the most concrete thing from any car manufacturer that gets us closer to that. Getting rid of drivers means less space for parking is needed. It also means better utilization of the vehicles. So, less cars on the road. And they'll be electric so…

Oh, and on the overreaction part, do you know that Las Vegas, one of the best places in the US to put high quality public transportation towards its "central business district", is instead going to build a "tunnel for single occupant Teslas".

Surely nobody lobbied for that instead of a proper subway system or bus rapid transit? (I'm being sarcastic here)

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#534

Post by LUmBULtERA »

ben_w wrote: post #462
15155 wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah right, the price should have remained the same despite the highest worldwide monetary inflation rates in the last 40 years. I can't imagine why would a company want to sell a product at a profit.

Gee, if only there was a comparable item to measure inflation against… Tesla Model Y: $39,000 in 2019, the same year the Cybertruck was announced - https://www.reuters.com/article/technology/tesla-unveils-mod... $31,490 today - https://www.tesla.com/compare So, a price cut then. From the same company, on the same time horizon. -- Even on longer timelines, inflation isn't a get-out-of-jail-free card. Tesla Model S: $5…

The cheapest Model Y right now is $44,990. You have to remove the "gas savings" and other subsidies that individuals may or may not qualify for to see this cash price.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#535

Post by rasz »

forgot-im-old wrote: post #473
mrich wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla at a forward P/E of 80 is massively overvalued as a car company. You can get Mercedes or BMW at a P/E of 6, with a 9% yield. Sure, the EV market is still growing, but Tesla is not the only player. All brands now have EVs, there are both cheaper and more luxurious Chinese EVs, that's some massive competition. The only reasons Tesla could be valued differently are FSD and Robotics, which Musk and Tesla-friendly a…

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#536

Post by eesmith »

tliltocatl wrote: post #522
valianteffort wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are countless videos on youtube of people recording their experience with FSD's open beta. It is probably 90% of the way there, if not more. Anyone who thinks Tesla won't get there first is peak delusional. Hate on Elon as much as you want, but Tesla are top-tier engineering. Real funny seeing a bunch of web devs on HN talk shit about Tesla's engineers too lmao

There are 90% and then there are 90% more.

A.K.A the Rule of Credibility: "The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ninety%E2%80%93ninety_rule

Followed by Hofstadter's law: "It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofstadter%27s_law

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#537

Post by pelorat »

valianteffort wrote: post #505
benterix wrote: post #485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They had 2 dozen vehicles with no steering wheels taking attendees around the venue. To quote a participant[0]: > After over 10 years of Full Self-Driving development, @Tesla is limited to a 20-30 acre geofenced 5mph ride on a preprogrammed, premapped and heavily rehearsed route with no traffic and no pedestrians. [0] https://x.com/realdanodowd/status/1844605093368512799

There are countless videos on youtube of people recording their experience with FSD's open beta. It is probably 90% of the way there, if not more. Anyone who thinks Tesla won't get there first is peak delusional. Hate on Elon as much as you want, but Tesla are top-tier engineering. Real funny seeing a bunch of web devs on HN talk shit about Tesla's engineers too lmao

That 90% is about as good as a teenager taking his first practice drive with a parent (meaning an extreme road hazard).

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#538

Post by pelorat »

pr337h4m wrote: post #330
fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that Tesla would win the robotaxi race by not needing LiDAR died sometime between when LiDAR cost $100k and when it cost $1k. Now it’s just Elon being intransigent.

Humans don’t use lidar, which clearly shows that a vision-only robotaxi is very much feasible.

Humans eyes are an order of magnitude better than the cameras in a Tesla. Humans also have a database in their head and remembers how to behave in certain situations. FSD doesn't have any database of any kind.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi

#539

Post by threeseed »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #465
Qwertious wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look at the announced price and all the claimed features then. We were promised a bulletproof amphibious truck for (IIRC) $40k, and we got a truck whose warranty is void if you drive in the rain, costing $80k for the base model. Also it won't even stop .22LR bullets. We were also promised micron panel gaps. the panel gaps on the cybertruck are both visible and visibly uneven. It's really weird to see anyone even impl…

> Also it won't even stop .22LR bullets. Seriously? Is there proof of this? The body panels are pretty thick, and they're made of an austenitic nitrogen steel -- a modified form of 316LN -- which should perform nearly as well as any "armor grade" steel alloy. (Against steel fragments, it likely performs poorly, but against lead handgun rounds it is likely even superior to the average high-hardness armor steel.) Just…

Can someone explain the thought process here.

People sit in a Cybertruck. With their head visible through the glass. Non bullet-proof glass.

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