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I Am Tired of AI

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Re: I Am Tired of AI

#981

Post by khafra »

randomdata wrote: post #449
khafra wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right - Arthur C. Clarke Geoffrey Hinton is a 76 year old Turing Award* winner. What more do you want? *Corrected by kranner

Hinton says that superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance. A far cry from the few year claim. You must be doing that "strawberry" thing again? To us humans, A-l-t-m-a-n is not H-i-n-t-o-n.

> superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance

I don't know the details of Hinton's probability distribution. If his prediction is normally distributed with a mean of 20 years and a SD of 15, which is reasonable for such a difficult and contentious prediction, that puts over 10% of the probability in the next 3 years.

Is 10% a lot? For sports betting, not really. For Mankind's Last Invention, I would argue that it is.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#982

Post by fennecfoxy »

goatlover wrote: post #598
fennecfoxy wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does a human being behind any words change anything at all? Trust should be based on established facts/research and not species.

An LLM isn't even a species. I prefer communicating with other humans, unless I choose to interact with an LLM. But then I know that it's a text generator and not a person, even when I ask it to act like a person. The difference matters to most humans.

I'm predicting the future a little with that. As always people accept new ideas at a glacial pace.

At what point do we consider some entity alive? At what point do we decide to consider it a species (of living thing)?

If we find out there are aliens, biological and therefore similar to us? Sure. What if we meet aliens whose physical forms are synthetic? What if we meet the synthetic creations of biological aliens?

I'm not saying that LLMs are alive, of course. But I am saying that I'd consider LLMs to be a precursor to AGI, along with all our our historical artificial intelligence experiments, in the same way that prokaryotes were the precursors to...us.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#983

Post by jiggawatts »

al_borland wrote: post #964
jiggawatts wrote: post #900

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking of the iPhone, I just ugpraded to the 16 Pro because I want to try out the new Apple Intelligence features. As soon as I saw integrated voice+text LLM demos, my first thought was that this was precisely the technology needed to make assistants like Siri not total garbage. Sure, Apple's version 1.0 will have a lot of rough edges, but they'll be smoothed out. In a few versions it'll be like something out of St…

The issue with appointments is the provider needs to be integrated into the system. Apple can’t do that on their own. It would have to be more like the roll out of CarPlay. A couple partners at launch, a lot of nothing for several years, and eventually is a lot of places, but still not universal. I could see something like Uber or Uber Eats trying to be early on something like this, since they already standardized th…

I meant appointment in the "calendar entry category" sense, where creating an appointment is entirely on-device and doesn't involve a third party.

Granted, any third-party integrations would be a significant step up from my simple scenario of "voice and text comprehension" and local device state manipulation.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#984

Post by randomdata »

khafra wrote: post #981
randomdata wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hinton says that superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance. A far cry from the few year claim. You must be doing that "strawberry" thing again? To us humans, A-l-t-m-a-n is not H-i-n-t-o-n.

> superintelligence is still 20 years away, and even then he only gives his prediction a 50% chance I don't know the details of Hinton's probability distribution. If his prediction is normally distributed with a mean of 20 years and a SD of 15, which is reasonable for such a difficult and contentious prediction, that puts over 10% of the probability in the next 3 years. Is 10% a lot? For sports betting, not really. F…

You don't know because he did not say. He said 20 years, which are more than a few.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#985

Post by mptest »

camus21 wrote: post #937
d0mine wrote: post #931

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know nothing on the topic but why would one use bitcoin to buy drugs? Aren't all bitcoin transactions public and immutable?

Yes but they’re also anonymous. You don’t have your name attached to the account and there’s no paperwork/bank that’s keeping track of any large/irregular financial transactions

They're pseudonymous. Not anonymous. Big difference. Monero transactions are anonymous.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#986

Post by mptest »

runeks wrote: post #932
datahack wrote: post #894

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s probably generally irrelevant what they can do today, or what you’ve seen so far. This is conceptually essentially Moore’s law, but about every 5.5 months. That’s the only thing that matters at this stage. I watched everyone make the same arguments about the general Internet, and then the Web, then mobile, then Bitcoin. It’s just a toy. It’s not that useful. Is this supposed to be the revolution? It uses too muc…

> I watched everyone make the same arguments about the general Internet, and then the Web, then mobile, then Bitcoin. You’re conveniently forgetting all the things that followed the same trajectory as LLMs and then died out.

>died out

Btc is currently like 60k... What does died out mean to you?

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#987

Post by amusedcyclist »

cubefox wrote: post #250

I'm not tired, I'm afraid. First, I'm afraid of technological unemployment. In the past, automation meant that workers could move into non-automated jobs, if they were skilled enough. But superhuman AI seems now only few years away. It will be our last invention, it will mean total automation. There will be hardly any, if any, jobs left only a human can do. Many countries will likely move away from a job-based market…

You are mentally ill and you do not understand LLMs, seek help and stop pontificating

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#988

Post by amusedcyclist »

cubefox wrote: post #689
lawn wrote: post #643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The evidence I've been seeing is that progress with LLMs have already slowed down and that they're nowhere near good enough to replace programmers. They can be useful tools ro be sure, but it seems more and more clear that they will not reach AGI.

They are already above average human level on many tasks, like math benchmarks.

They really aren't better than humans at math or logic, they are good at the benchmarks because they are hyper optimized for the benchmarks lol. But if you ask LLMs simple logical questions they still get them wrong all the time

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#989

Post by mejutoco »

diggan wrote: post #188
dannersy wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact I even see responses like this shows me that HN is not the place it used to be, or at the very least, it is on a down trend. I've been alarmed by many sentiments that seemed popular on HN in the past, but seeing more and more people welcome a race to the bottom such as this is sad. When I read this, I cannot tell if it's performance art or not, that's how bad this genuinely is.

> The fact I even see responses like this shows me that HN is not the place it used to be, or at the very least, it is on a down trend. Judging a large group of people based on what a few write seems very un-scientific at best. Especially when it comes to things that have been rehashed since I've joined HN (and probably earlier to). Feels like there will always be someone lamenting how HN isn't how it used to be, or…

> Judging a large group of people based on what a few write seems very un-scientific at best.

There is a voting mechanism on hn as well.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#990

Post by __loam »

Ferret7446 wrote: post #967
__loam wrote: post #959

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The amount of power being used to support a system that can do 5 transactions a second is disgusting.

As opposed to what other system that can do a single transaction in any time frame without individual or organizational interdiction?

As opposed to financial systems that actually work and are used by millions of people.
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