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I Am Tired of AI

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Re: I Am Tired of AI

#931

Post by d0mine »

bburnett44 wrote: post #907
datahack wrote: post #894

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s probably generally irrelevant what they can do today, or what you’ve seen so far. This is conceptually essentially Moore’s law, but about every 5.5 months. That’s the only thing that matters at this stage. I watched everyone make the same arguments about the general Internet, and then the Web, then mobile, then Bitcoin. It’s just a toy. It’s not that useful. Is this supposed to be the revolution? It uses too muc…

I think we can pretty safely say bitcoin was a dead end other than for buying drugs, enabling ransomware payments, or financial speculation. Show me an average person who has bought something real w bitcoin (who couldn’t have bought it for less complexity/transaction cost using a bank) and I’ll change my mind

I know nothing on the topic but why would one use bitcoin to buy drugs? Aren't all bitcoin transactions public and immutable?

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#932

Post by runeks »

datahack wrote: post #894
Animats wrote: post #666

I'm tired of LLMs. Enough billions of dollars have been spent on LLMs that a reasonably good picture of what they can and can't do has emerged. They're really good at some things, terrible at others, and prone to doing something totally wrong some fraction of the time. That last limits their usefulness. They can't safely be in charge of anything important. If someone doesn't soon figure out how to get a confidence me…

It’s probably generally irrelevant what they can do today, or what you’ve seen so far. This is conceptually essentially Moore’s law, but about every 5.5 months. That’s the only thing that matters at this stage. I watched everyone make the same arguments about the general Internet, and then the Web, then mobile, then Bitcoin. It’s just a toy. It’s not that useful. Is this supposed to be the revolution? It uses too muc…

> I watched everyone make the same arguments about the general Internet, and then the Web, then mobile, then Bitcoin.

You’re conveniently forgetting all the things that followed the same trajectory as LLMs and then died out.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#934

Post by fsmv »

bburnett44 wrote: post #907
datahack wrote: post #894

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s probably generally irrelevant what they can do today, or what you’ve seen so far. This is conceptually essentially Moore’s law, but about every 5.5 months. That’s the only thing that matters at this stage. I watched everyone make the same arguments about the general Internet, and then the Web, then mobile, then Bitcoin. It’s just a toy. It’s not that useful. Is this supposed to be the revolution? It uses too muc…

I think we can pretty safely say bitcoin was a dead end other than for buying drugs, enabling ransomware payments, or financial speculation. Show me an average person who has bought something real w bitcoin (who couldn’t have bought it for less complexity/transaction cost using a bank) and I’ll change my mind

Bitcoin failed because of bad monetary policy turning it into something like a ponzi scheme where only early adopters win. The monetary policy isn't as hard to fix as people make it out to be.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#935

Post by beepbooptheory »

DirkH wrote: post #929
beepbooptheory wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At any given moment we see these kinds comments on here. They all read like a burgeoning form of messianism: something is to come, and it will be terrible/glorious. Behind either the fear or the hope, is necessarily some utter faith that a certain kind of future will happen. And I think thats the most interesting thing. Because here is the thing, in this particular case you are afraid something inhuman will take cont…

This is a nice sentiment and I'm sure some people will get more nights of good sleep thinking about it, but it has its limits. If you're enslaved and treated horrendously or don't have your basic needs met who cares? To quote George RR Martin: "In a heartbeat, a thousand voices took up the chant. King Joffrey and King Robb and King Stannis were forgotten, and King Bread ruled alone. 'Bread.' They clamputed. 'Bread, b…

Whether you are talking about the disempowerment we or some of us already experience, or are more on the page of thinking about some future cataclysm, I think I'm generally with you here. "History does not walk on its head," and all that.

The GRRM quote is an interesting choice here though. It implies that what is most important is dynamic. First Joffrey et al, now bread. But one could go even farther in this line: ideas, ideology, and, in GoT's case, those who peddle them can only ever form ideas within their context. Philosopher's are no more than fancy pundits, telling people what they want to here, or even sustaining a structural status quo that is otherwise not in their control. In a funny paradoxical way, there are certainly a lot of philosophers who would agree with something like this picture.

And just honestly, yes, maybe killing god is killing the philosopher too. I don't think Nietzsche would disagree at least...

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#936

Post by Ferret7446 »

__loam wrote: post #684
Animats wrote: post #666

I'm tired of LLMs. Enough billions of dollars have been spent on LLMs that a reasonably good picture of what they can and can't do has emerged. They're really good at some things, terrible at others, and prone to doing something totally wrong some fraction of the time. That last limits their usefulness. They can't safely be in charge of anything important. If someone doesn't soon figure out how to get a confidence me…

Funnily enough, bitcoin mining still uses at least about 3x more power that AI at the moment, while providing less value imo. AI power use is also dwarfed by other industries even in computing. We should still consider whether it's worth it, but most research and development on LLMs in corporate right now seems to be focused on making them more efficient, and therefore both cheaper and less power intensive, to run. T…

How do you measure the value of bitcoin, if not by its market cap? Do you interview everyone and ask them how much they're willing to pay for a service that allows them to transfer money digitally without institutional oversight/bureaucracy?

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#937

Post by camus21 »

d0mine wrote: post #931
bburnett44 wrote: post #907

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we can pretty safely say bitcoin was a dead end other than for buying drugs, enabling ransomware payments, or financial speculation. Show me an average person who has bought something real w bitcoin (who couldn’t have bought it for less complexity/transaction cost using a bank) and I’ll change my mind

I know nothing on the topic but why would one use bitcoin to buy drugs? Aren't all bitcoin transactions public and immutable?

Yes but they’re also anonymous. You don’t have your name attached to the account and there’s no paperwork/bank that’s keeping track of any large/irregular financial transactions

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#938

Post by nobodyandproud »

bburnett44 wrote: post #907
datahack wrote: post #894

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s probably generally irrelevant what they can do today, or what you’ve seen so far. This is conceptually essentially Moore’s law, but about every 5.5 months. That’s the only thing that matters at this stage. I watched everyone make the same arguments about the general Internet, and then the Web, then mobile, then Bitcoin. It’s just a toy. It’s not that useful. Is this supposed to be the revolution? It uses too muc…

I think we can pretty safely say bitcoin was a dead end other than for buying drugs, enabling ransomware payments, or financial speculation. Show me an average person who has bought something real w bitcoin (who couldn’t have bought it for less complexity/transaction cost using a bank) and I’ll change my mind

I came from the other end: I had years to get on the boat and missed it.

I couldn’t fathom what use Bitcoin could possibly have, but completely overlooked the bad actors that would benefit.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#939

Post by newaccountman2 »

datahack wrote: post #894
Animats wrote: post #666

I'm tired of LLMs. Enough billions of dollars have been spent on LLMs that a reasonably good picture of what they can and can't do has emerged. They're really good at some things, terrible at others, and prone to doing something totally wrong some fraction of the time. That last limits their usefulness. They can't safely be in charge of anything important. If someone doesn't soon figure out how to get a confidence me…

It’s probably generally irrelevant what they can do today, or what you’ve seen so far. This is conceptually essentially Moore’s law, but about every 5.5 months. That’s the only thing that matters at this stage. I watched everyone make the same arguments about the general Internet, and then the Web, then mobile, then Bitcoin. It’s just a toy. It’s not that useful. Is this supposed to be the revolution? It uses too muc…

I am generally on your side of this debate, but Bitcoin is a reference that is in favor of the opposite position. Crypto is/was all hype. It's a speculative investment, that's all atm.

Re: I Am Tired of AI

#940

Post by rocho »

cubefox wrote: post #305
neta1337 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But superhuman AI seems now only few years away Seems unreasonable. You are afraid because marketing gurus like Altman made you believe that a frog that can make bigger leap than before will be able to fly.

No, because we have seen massive improvements in AI over the last years, and all the evidence points to this progress continuing at a fast pace.

But that does not prove anything. We don't know where we are on the AI-power scale currently. "Superintelligence", whatever that means, could be 1 year or 1000 years away at our current progress, and we wouldn't know until we reach it.
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