I Am Tired of AI

If we are evaluating LLM suitability for tasks typically performed by humans, we should judge them by the same standards we judge humans. That means it's OK to make mistakes sometimes.

Not sure if that same pace applies to the physical realm where costs are high (resources, energy, pollution, etc), and the risk of getting it wrong could mean a lot of negative consequences. e.g. I'm handling construction materials, and the robot trips on a barely noticeable rock leaking paint, petrol, etc onto the ground costing more than just the initial cost of materials but cleanup as well.

This creates a potential future outcome (if I can be so bold as to extrapolate with the dangers that has) that this "frenzy of talent" as you put it will innovate themselves out of a job with some may cash out in the short term closing the gate behind them. What's left is ironically the people that can sell, convince, manipulate and work in the physical world at least for the short and medium term. AI can't fix the scarcity of the physical that easily (e.g. land, nutrients, etc). Those people who still command scarcity will get the main rewards of AI in our capital system as value/economic surplus moves to the resources that are scarce and have advantage via relative price adjustments.

Typically people had three different strengths - physical (strength and dexterity), emotional IQ, and intelligence/problem solving. The new world of AI at least in the medium term (10-20 years) will tilt the value away from the latter into the former (physical) - IMO a reversal of the last century of change. May make more sense to get good at gym class and get a trade rather than study math in the future for example. Intelligence will be in abundance, and become a commodity. This potential outcome does alarm me not just from a job perspective, but in terms of fake content, lack of human connection, lack of value of intelligence in general (you will find people with high IQ's lose respect from society in general), social mobility, etc. I can see a potential to the old world where lords that command scarcity (e.g. landlords) command peasants again - reversing the gains of the industrial revolution as an extreme case depending on general AI progress (not LLMs). For people who's value is more in capital or land vs labor, AI seems like a dream future IMO.

There's potential good here, but sadly I'm alarmed because the likelihood that the human race aligns to achieve it is low (the tragedy of the commons problem). It is much easier, and more likely, certain groups use it and target people of value economically now, but with little power (i.e the middle class). The chance of new weapons, economic displacement, fake news, etc for me trumps a voice/chat bot and a fancy image generator. The "adjustment period" is critical to manage; and I think climate change, and other broader issues tells us sadly IMO our likely success in doing this.

Additionally, there's a good reason we moved off deflationary hard currencies and onto inflationary fiat currencies. Bitcoin acts more like a commodity than a medium of exchange. People tend to buy it, hold it, and then eventually cash out. If I am given a bunch of bitcoin, the incentive is for me not to spend it, but rather keep it close and wait for it to appreciate — what good is a currency that people don't spend?

Also I find it weird when I read that due to its mathematically proven finite supply it is basic economics that gives it value. Value in modern economics is defined as what people are willing to give up to obtain that thing. Right now, people are willing to give up a lot for bitcoin, but mainly because other people are also willing to give up a lot for bitcoin, which gives it value.

It's a remarkable piece of engineering that has enabled this (solving the double spending problem especially), but it doesn't have inherent value in and if itself. There are many finite things in the world that are not valued as highly as bitcoin is. There's a finite number of beanie babies, a finite number is cassette tapes, a finite number of blockbuster coupons...

Gold is similar — should we all agree tomorrow that gold sucks and should never be regarded as a precious metal, then it won't lose its value completely (there's only a finite amount of it, and some people will still want it, e.g. for making connectors). But its current valuation is far higher than it would be for its scarcity alone — people mainly want gold, because other people want gold.