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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#161

Post by andy_ppp »

hiddencost wrote: post #148
wil421 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like robo-taxis are supposed to be driving us around or self driving cars. Not to mention the non-fiat currency everyone can easily use to buy goods nowadays.

Waymo is doing 100k paid driverless trips a week with significantly better safety than humans in matched conditions.

On a small subsection of US roads, British roads for example don’t make any sense.

However, generally I think being a software developer might be not a career in 10 years which is terrible to think about. Designer too. And all of this is through stealing peoples work as their own.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#162

Post by snowwrestler »

dizzydes wrote: post #72

Three things that get me about current AI discourse: - The public focus on AGI is almost a distraction. By the time we get to AGI highly-specialised models will have taken jobs from huge swaths of the population, SWE and CS are already in play. - That AI will need to carry out every task a role does to replace it. I see this a lot on HN. What if SWEs get 50% more efficient and they fire half? That's still a gigantic…

If an AI can do my job, why would my employer fire me? Why wouldn’t they be excited to get 200% productivity out of me for the marginal cost of an AI seat license?

A lot of the predictions of job loss are predicated on an unspoken assumption that we’re sitting at “task maximum” so any increase in productivity must result in job loss. It’s only true if there is no more work to be done. But no one seems to be willing or able or even aware that they need to make that point substantively—to prove that there is no more work to be done.

Historically, humans have been absolutely terrible at predicting the types and volumes of future work. But we’ve been absolutely incredible at inventing new things to do to keep busy.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#163

Post by visarga »

beepbooptheory wrote: post #100
schnitzelstoat wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree on the first two points. On the third point, I think we've always seen this happen even in massive shocks like the Industrial Revolution (and the Second Industrial Revolution with assembly lines etc. and the Computer Age) It might be hard for people to retrain to whatever the new opportunities are though. Although perhaps somewhat easier nowadays with the internet etc.

The industrial revolution didn't lay everyone off, it just made everyone's jobs worse in every possible sense.

I don't think many would switch current life with pre-industrial life. You are idealising the past and discounting the present

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#164

Post by no_op »

dizzydes wrote: post #72

Three things that get me about current AI discourse: - The public focus on AGI is almost a distraction. By the time we get to AGI highly-specialised models will have taken jobs from huge swaths of the population, SWE and CS are already in play. - That AI will need to carry out every task a role does to replace it. I see this a lot on HN. What if SWEs get 50% more efficient and they fire half? That's still a gigantic…

Non-general AI won't cause mass unemployment, for the same reason previous productivity-enhancing tech hasn't. So long as humans can create valuable output machines can't, the new, higher-output economy will figure out how to employ them. Some won't even have to switch jobs, because demand for what they provide will be higher as AI tools bring down production costs. This is plausible for SWEs. Other people will end up in jobs that come into existence as a result of new tech, or that presently seem too silly to pay many people for — this, too, is consistent with historical precedent. It can result in temporary dislocation if the transition is fast enough, but things sort themselves out.

It's really only AGI, by eclipsing human capabilities across all useful work, that breaks this dynamic and creates the prospect of permanent structural unemployment.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#165

Post by iphoneisbetter »

CharlieDigital wrote: post #146
hlanders10 wrote: post #33

He may have the last laugh. His traveling around the world and threatening to build fabs in the UAE and Taiwan is a diplomatic scheme to get the U.S. hawks into action. And lo and behold, ClopenAI has already hired CHIPS act people: "To bolster its efforts, OpenAI has hired Chris Lehane, a Clinton White House lawyer, as its vice president of global policy, along with two people from the Commerce Department who worked…

> Build fabs Such a misguided take. If it were that easy to build fabs to compete with TSMC, Intel would do it. China would do it. Hardware is way harder than software.

Or maybe, just maybe, TSMC has gaslit all of us to think it is much harder than it really is. If Taiwan isn't needed for its chips, what is the strategic interest of the USG?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#167

Post by lucianbr »

ramraj07 wrote: post #130
stackghost wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>when the dust settles we'll have LLMs significantly more powerful than the current cutting edge -- which is already useful. LLMs, irrespective of how powerful, are all subject to the fundamental limitation that they don't know anything. The stochastic parrot analogy remains applicable and will never be solved because of the underlying principles inherent to LLMs. LLMs are not the pathway to AGI.

Noam Chomsky and Doug Hofstader had the same opinion. Last I checked Doug has recanted his skepticism and is seriously afraid for the future of humanity. I’ll listen to him and my own gut than some random internet people still insisting this is all a nothing burger.

The thing is my gut is telling me this is a nothing burger, and I'll listen to my own gut before yours - a random internet person insisting this is going to change the world.

So what exactly is the usefulness of this discussion? You think "I'll trust my gut" is a useful argument in a debate?

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#168

Post by napoleoncomplex »

wil421 wrote: post #90
dizzydes wrote: post #72

Three things that get me about current AI discourse: - The public focus on AGI is almost a distraction. By the time we get to AGI highly-specialised models will have taken jobs from huge swaths of the population, SWE and CS are already in play. - That AI will need to carry out every task a role does to replace it. I see this a lot on HN. What if SWEs get 50% more efficient and they fire half? That's still a gigantic…

Just like robo-taxis are supposed to be driving us around or self driving cars. Not to mention the non-fiat currency everyone can easily use to buy goods nowadays.

Waymo was providing 10,000 weekly autonomous rides in August 2023, 50,000 in June 2024, and 100,000 in August 2024.

Not everything has this trajectory, and it took 10 years more than expected. But it's coming.

Not saying AI will be the same, but underestimating the impact of having certain outputs 100x cheaper, even if many times crappier seems like a losing bet, considering how the world has gone so far.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#169

Post by ben_w »

sofixa wrote: post #70
JanSt wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but 1) you only need to train the model once and the inference is way cheaper. Train one great model (i.e. Claude 3.5) and you can get much more than $80/month worth out of it. 2) the hardware is getting much better and prices will fall drastically once there is a bit of a saturation of the market or another company starts putting out hardware that can compete with NVIDIA

> Train one great model (i.e. Claude 3.5) and you can get much more than $80/month worth out of it Until the competition outcompetes you with their new model and you have to train a new superior one, because you have no moat. Which happens what, around every month or two? > the hardware is getting much better and prices will fall drastically once there is a bit of a saturation of the market or another company starts…

> Until the competition outcompetes you with their new model and you have to train a new superior one, because you have no moat. Which happens what, around every month or two?

Eventually one of you runs out of money, but your customers keep getting better models until then; and if the loser in this race releases the weights on a suitable gratis license then your businesses can both lose.

But that still leaves your customers with access to a model that's much cheaper to run than it was to create.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#170

Post by klamma »

bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

No but it's the first time that we have a clear picture how it could go.

And.its not just incorrect sentences it's weird questions which are getting answered a lot better than ever before.

Why are you so dismissive? Have you ever talked or wrote with a computer which felt anything like a modern LLM? I have not

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