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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#51

Post by ramblerman »

JanSt wrote: post #16
bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

2 things can be true at the same time.

Op is addressing the hype that there is some linear path of improvement here and chatgpt 8.5 will be AGI.

To which people always seem to jump in with but it’s useful for me and makes me code faster. Which is fine and valid, just beside the point

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#52

Post by AdamN »

AlexandrB wrote: post #23

It's ironic that Sam Altman's background is in YC, because this is the opposite of startup thinking. Instead of scrappy disruption he seems to want massive investment upfront with only vague ideas of what the technology could be used for.

They already know that some of these upcoming model builds are going to require $100MM and possibly even a billion dollars. That is just the compute costs for building a single model. Product-market fit is basically established and the cost structure is basically understood so he needs the money for pretty straighforward reasons.

With that said it's a gamble since somebody might come along with a $10MM model based on some new technique and then OpenAI's cost structure becomes a problem. Presumably their scientists could adapt pretty quickly though if that happened.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#53

Post by JanSt »

sofixa wrote: post #42
JanSt wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) The costs will go down over time, much of the cost is the margin of NVIDIA and training new models 2) Absolutely. Thats like one hour of an engineer salary for a whole month.

> The costs will go down over time, much of the cost is the margin of NVIDIA and training new models Isn't each new model bigger and heavier and thus requries more compute to train?

Yes, but 1) you only need to train the model once and the inference is way cheaper. Train one great model (i.e. Claude 3.5) and you can get much more than $80/month worth out of it. 2) the hardware is getting much better and prices will fall drastically once there is a bit of a saturation of the market or another company starts putting out hardware that can compete with NVIDIA

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#54

Post by hobs »

JanSt wrote: post #47
apwell23 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what is his plan to fix all the bugs that claude hallucinated in the code ?

I'm confident you have not used Cursor Composer + Claude 3.5 Sonnet. I'd say the level of bugs is no higher than that of a typical engineer - maybe even lower.

There's no LLM for which that is true or we'd all be fired.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#55

Post by dagw »

apwell23 wrote: post #34
binocarlos wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…

So what is his plan to fix all the bugs that claude hallucinated in the code ?

Claude is actually surprisingly good at fixing bugs as well. Feed it a code snippet and either the error message or a brief description of the problem and it will in many cases generate new code that works.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#56

Post by orwin »

binocarlos wrote: post #30
jsheard wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no accounting for taste, but keep in mind that all of these services are currently losing money, so how much would you actually be willing to pay for the service you're currently getting in order to let it break even? There was a report that Microsoft is losing $20 for every $10 spent on Copilot subscriptions, with heavy users costing them as much as $80 per month. Assuming you're one of those heavy users, wo…

I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…

I really believe that the front-end part can be mostly automated (the html/CSS at least), copilot is close imho (microsoft+github, I used both), but really they're useless to do anything else complex without making to much calls, proposing bad data structures, using bad /old code design.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#57

Post by threeseed »

JanSt wrote: post #47
apwell23 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what is his plan to fix all the bugs that claude hallucinated in the code ?

I'm confident you have not used Cursor Composer + Claude 3.5 Sonnet. I'd say the level of bugs is no higher than that of a typical engineer - maybe even lower.

It's only as good as its training data.

Step outside of building basic web/CRUD apps and its accuracy drops off substantially.

Also almost every library it uses is old and insecure.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#58

Post by frankc »

lynx23 wrote: post #45
JanSt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

While I get where your fascinaton comes from... > I'm more productive than ever before. You realize that another way to read that sentence is "I am a really bad coder".

I think this is what the kids call "copium". To be honest, when people think like this it makes me smile. I'd rather compete against people programming on punchcards.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#59

Post by njarboe »

AlexandrB wrote: post #43
aero-glide2 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they will be. Looking at the rate of progress (just tried o1mini), its inevitable.

I once read that on the 80s it was believed that female runners would soon outpace male runners because the trend line for them was moving up so fast. This turned out not to be the case because the curve wasn't exponential but "S" shaped - the female runners eventually plateaued. It's easy to assume that exponential growth will continue indefinitely but it's rarely the case that this is true.

Agreed, but when will the exponential bend over. Moore's law went on for a long time, industrial revolution, population growth. Very hard to know in advance.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#60

Post by pyb »

torlok wrote: post #46
AlexandrB wrote: post #23

It's ironic that Sam Altman's background is in YC, because this is the opposite of startup thinking. Instead of scrappy disruption he seems to want massive investment upfront with only vague ideas of what the technology could be used for.

The second sentence describes a lot of startups.

It describes bad startups.
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