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TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

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Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#81

Post by dathinab »

JanSt wrote: post #16
bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

idk. about Claude 3.5

but if you remove implicit subventions from the AI/AGI hype then for many such tools the cost to benefit calculation of creating and operating will become ... questionable

furthermore the places where such tools tend to shine the most often places where the IT industry has somewhat failed, like unnecessary verbose and bothersome to use tools, missing tooling and troublesome code reuse (so you write the same code again and again). And this LLM based tools are not fixing the problem they just kinda hiding it. And that has me worried a bit because it makes it much much less likely for the problem to ever be fixed. Like I think there is a serious chance for this tooling causing the industry to be stuck on a quite sub-par plato for many many years.

So while they clearly help, especially if you have to reinvent the wheel for a thousands time, it's hard to look at them favorably.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#82

Post by ben_w »

aniviacat wrote: post #77
binocarlos wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…

Current LLMs fail if what you're coding is not the most common of tasks. And a simple web app is about as basic as it gets. I've tried using LLMs for some libraries I'm working on, and they failed miserably. Trying to make an LLM implement a trait with a generic type in Rust is a game of luck with very poor chances. I'm sure LLMs can massively speed up tasks like front-end JavaScript development, simple Python script…

> Current LLMs fail if what you're coding is not the most common of tasks

Succeeding on the most common tasks (which isn't exactly what you said) is identical to "they're useful".

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#83

Post by StefanWestfal »

binocarlos wrote: post #30
jsheard wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no accounting for taste, but keep in mind that all of these services are currently losing money, so how much would you actually be willing to pay for the service you're currently getting in order to let it break even? There was a report that Microsoft is losing $20 for every $10 spent on Copilot subscriptions, with heavy users costing them as much as $80 per month. Assuming you're one of those heavy users, wo…

I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…

I am curiouse, how complex was the app? I use cursor too and am very satisfied with it. It seem that is very good at code that must have been written so many times before (think react components, node.js REST api endpoints etc.) but it starts to fall of when moving into specific domains.

And for me that is the best case scenario, it takes away the part we have to code / solve already solved problems again and again so we can focus more on the other parts of software engineering beyond writing code.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#84

Post by christkv »

jsheard wrote: post #20
JanSt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

There's no accounting for taste, but keep in mind that all of these services are currently losing money, so how much would you actually be willing to pay for the service you're currently getting in order to let it break even? There was a report that Microsoft is losing $20 for every $10 spent on Copilot subscriptions, with heavy users costing them as much as $80 per month. Assuming you're one of those heavy users, wo…

Also at some point you can run the equivalent model locally. There is no long term moat here i think and facebook seems hellbent of ensuring there will be no new google from llms

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#85

Post by ricardobayes »

bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

People saying LLM to replace programming jobs is like saying blockchain is going to replace home/car titles and proof of ownership.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#86

Post by ben_w »

jsheard wrote: post #20
JanSt wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using Claude 3.5 Sonnet in Cursor Composer already shows huge benefits for coding. I'm more productive than ever before. The models are still getting better and better. I'm not saying AGI is right around the corner or that we will reach it, but the benefits are undeniable. o1 added test-time compute. No need to be snarky.

There's no accounting for taste, but keep in mind that all of these services are currently losing money, so how much would you actually be willing to pay for the service you're currently getting in order to let it break even? There was a report that Microsoft is losing $20 for every $10 spent on Copilot subscriptions, with heavy users costing them as much as $80 per month. Assuming you're one of those heavy users, wo…

> There's no accounting for taste, but keep in mind that all of these services are currently losing money, so how much would you actually be willing to pay for the service you're currently getting in order to let it break even

Ok models already run locally; that aside, as the hosted ones are kinda similar quality to interns (though varying by field), the answer is "what you'd pay an intern". Could easily be £1500/month, depending on domain.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#87

Post by dathinab »

aniviacat wrote: post #77
binocarlos wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would pay hundreds of dollars per month for the combination of cursor and claude - I could not get my head around it when my beginner lever colleague said "I just coded this whole thing using cursor". It was an entire web app, with search filters, tree based drag and drop GUIs, the backend api server, database migrations, auth and everything else. Not once did he need to ask me a question. When I asked him "how lon…

Current LLMs fail if what you're coding is not the most common of tasks. And a simple web app is about as basic as it gets. I've tried using LLMs for some libraries I'm working on, and they failed miserably. Trying to make an LLM implement a trait with a generic type in Rust is a game of luck with very poor chances. I'm sure LLMs can massively speed up tasks like front-end JavaScript development, simple Python script…

I don't think if complexity is the right metric.

front-end JS can easily also become very complex

I think a better metric is how close you are to reinventing a wheel for the thousands time. Because that is what LLMs are good at: Helping you write code which nearly the same way has already been written thousands of times.

But that is also something you find in backend code, too.

But that is also something where we as a industry kinda failed to produce good tooling. And worse if you are in the industry it's kinda hard to spot without very carefully taking a hounded (mental) steps back from what you are used to and what biases you might have.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#88

Post by imiric »

chx wrote: post #63
bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

George Zarkadaki: In Our Own Image (2015) describes six metaphors people have used to explain human intelligence in the last two millennia. At first it was the gods infusing us with spirit. After that it's always been engineering: after the first water clocks and the qanat hydraulics seemed a good explanation of everything. The flow of different fluids in the body, the "humors" explained physical and mental function.…

That's interesting, but technology has always been about augmenting or mimicking human intelligence, though. The Turing test is literally about computers being able to mimic humans so well that real humans wouldn't be able to tell them apart. We're now past that point in some areas, but we never really prioritized thinking about what intelligence _actually_ is, and how we can best reproduce it.

At the end of the day, does it matter? If humans can be fooled by artificial intelligence in pretty much all areas, and that intelligence surpasses ours by every possible measurement, does it really matter that it's not powered by biological brains? We haven't quite reached that stage yet, but I don't think this will matter when we do.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#89

Post by rubyfan »

bdndndndbve wrote: post #10

The current AI hype wave has really hit a nerd soft spot - that we're steps away from AGI. Surely if a computer can make plausible-looking but incorrect sentences we're days away from those sentences being factually accurate! The winter after this is gonna be harsh.

Reminds me of autonomous vehicles a couple of years back. Or even AI a couple of years back, remember Watson? The hype cycle was faster to close that time.

Re: TSMC execs allegedly dismissed OpenAI CEO Sam Altman as 'podcasting bro'

#90

Post by wil421 »

dizzydes wrote: post #72

Three things that get me about current AI discourse: - The public focus on AGI is almost a distraction. By the time we get to AGI highly-specialised models will have taken jobs from huge swaths of the population, SWE and CS are already in play. - That AI will need to carry out every task a role does to replace it. I see this a lot on HN. What if SWEs get 50% more efficient and they fire half? That's still a gigantic…

Just like robo-taxis are supposed to be driving us around or self driving cars. Not to mention the non-fiat currency everyone can easily use to buy goods nowadays.
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