Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say • Hacker News Board

Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say

#211

Post by jpc0 » Fri, Jul 12, 2024, 12:06 PM UTC

wrsh07 wrote: post #51

ProfessorLayton wrote: post #23

"...analysts have noted that many who bought one were confused by its more complicated setup and what they were supposed to use it for in their daily lives." There's the root of the problem right there. Apple's best successes had a very clear purpose in mind from the beginning: - iPod: 1,000 songs in your pocket - iPhone: A phone, an internet communicator, an iPod - iPad: Media consumption AVP didn't have a clear pur…

I'm not sure that's right. Apple launched the watch thinking "apps like iphone" A few versions in, they settled on "watches are for health and fitness" Ben Thompson discusses the AVP as an immersive iPad, and that's kind of the problem. It's too locked down to be my productivity device (something that could justifiably command a premium price), and my entertainment budget isn't that high for one person (I already hav…

Might not be the popular experience but for me there are some killer features I like the apple watch for, fashion isn't one of them.

The health and fitness stuff is nice, but more so for productivity it's nice. I never need to take my phone out of my pocket most days purely because notifications and phonecalls pop up in my watch.

More on the health and fitness front is that I can leave home with airpods and my watch and not be cut off from the world when I go out for a jog, previously I would need to deal with a holster for my phone.

The thing I generally miss the most when I don't have my Apple watch on, I can't lift my arm to look at the time or get today's date. And that leads me to want to go back to my old analogue watch.

Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say

#212

Post by solardev » Fri, Jul 12, 2024, 12:57 PM UTC

andrewsuzuki wrote: post #154

twoWhlsGud wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with the exception of you being surprised that folks will spend 5000E on a road bike. Of all my discretionary purchases my custom roadbike might well be my happiest. A well fitting allroad bike can take you to the grocery store or up a gravel road to a mountain pass and make both journeys joyful. I'm on mine most days to do something practical made fun and healthy and sustainable, too : )

Well-fitting bikes are nice, but 95% of people that buy custom frames have fit coordinates that can be easily achieved on stock geometry.

Even the stock stuff could easily cost $12k or more, before upgrades. On a bike that probably would've been half that pre-covid, and maybe 5 lbs lighter than a $1.2k bike.

Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say

#213

Post by snapcaster » Fri, Jul 12, 2024, 2:47 PM UTC

nox101 wrote: post #189

snapcaster wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean the actual AR experience, every other headset i've used is so janky and can't persist objects enough to actually immerse you. AVP windows I've actually attempted to avoid while walking because my brain forgets they aren't real after a little bit

Maybe my confusion was you wrote VR/AR instead of just AR. Though even then, while visually the Vision Pro does better then the Quest 3 at AR, the interactions leave a lot to be desired. AR (and VR) make me want to reach out and touch things. But when I tried, instead of letting me interact by touching it required me to "stare and hold eyes perfectly still and then tap fingers somewhere not on the thing I actually wa…

Yeah my bad the VR is good but the AR is what feels like best in class. agreed on your point there is some support for that (was doing development and some example apps let you interact with "real world" objects like you're describing) but i don't know why they didn't just use that as the dominant paradigm. Maybe was seen as too janky or difficult for non techies

Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say

#214

Post by taeric » Fri, Jul 12, 2024, 3:12 PM UTC

wrsh07 wrote: post #195

taeric wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm comfortable disagreeing here. Watches are, by and large, a fashion piece. Even without getting custom bands. To the point that it is not at all uncommon for people to have a watch on that is dead. Happy to see data proving otherwise. I'm also more than willing to believe a lot of people will use some of the asserted benefits as a reason to justify getting the fashion item. But even the enthusiasts I know that get…

I'm not sure you're wrong about "apple watch as fashion" (my gut is to disagree), but it's worth noting that apple greatly increased the size of the watch market. That is to say: while they converted some existing watch wearers, they greatly expanded the market. What I'm not certain of is "why". Fitness is an easy answer (that's something an apple watch does and my Seiko doesn't), but fashion is also a reasonable ans…

I am almost certainly presenting a stronger argument than I intend here. My assertion is that it is somewhat fashionable to wear a watch, and there is surprisingly little utility in it. Adding any utility is enough to get many to make the jump. (Note that this is very different than me only claiming the Apple Watch is a fashion item. Largely, my claim is ALL watches are fashion oriented.)

Do I think this is the only reason at all? Probably not. I will agree that there are certainly many people that do get it for the utility alone. Happy to see numbers going over any of this, of course. Mostly all I have to go on are anecdotes regarding Apple watches.

Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say

#215

Post by HumblyTossed » Fri, Jul 12, 2024, 4:08 PM UTC

jdmoreira wrote: post #206

HumblyTossed wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People don't like stuff on their face. People wear contacts or get surgery to avoid wearing glasses. People don't like stuff on their face. I paid for college working in the eyeglass industry and it's nearly universal that people "wish they didn't have to wear glasses". People don't like stuff on their face.

I didn't like headphones before AirPods. It might take a long time... maybe it's even a neuro plug at some point. I don't know but people will want to hijack their vision for sure.

Not the same. Many people have no problem wearing a hat either. Your _face_ is different. Maybe it's a biological protection mechanism, but _it is different_.

Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say

#216

Post by viridian » Fri, Jul 12, 2024, 7:01 PM UTC

mjhay wrote: post #22

The hype on VR dying so fast does not bode well for gen AI. Unfortunately, C-suite brass will continue to insist that everyone, deep down, wants it. If they don't think they want it, it's only because they haven't had it shoved in their face nearly enough.

The difference is, lots of companies are building out AI solutions right now. And when I say lots, I mean a significant percentage of fortune 500s who never had any intention of touching crypto or VR with a ten foot pole.

Also, based on my own user feedback, we've started to get requests across different apps with different user slices, all asking us for what amounts to replacing or adding AI chatbots on top of search (presumably withb some type of RAG implementation). The demand is definitely there.

Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say

#217

Post by seanmcdirmid » Fri, Jul 12, 2024, 7:04 PM UTC

haunter wrote: post #41

Sir_Twist wrote: post #35

I wonder whether the behavior Apple has exhibited around their developer relations (especially their EU / notorization related troubles) has had a chilling effect on people's willingness to support a new platform like this. Without the raw number of users that something like the iPhone has, does Apple make it worthwhile to create apps / games for their platforms? I'm not a developer, so maybe there is a more technica…

>maybe I'm missing something obvious here. It's an expensive gadget for a niche [0] market. $3500 is an incredibly high price for what it is. 0, https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/ 1.75% of Steam users have a VR headset as of June this year which is lower than the people who are using Linux for gaming (2.08%). So you can see how small the VR market is. And the top alternatives are $500 (Quest 3) and $1000 (Valve…

> 0, https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/ 1.75% of Steam users have a VR headset as of June this year which is lower than the people who are using Linux for gaming (2.08%). So you can see how small the VR market is. And the top alternatives are $500 (Quest 3) and $1000 (Valve Index) which are expensive on their own but $3500 (that you can't even use on Steam gaming lol) is just an astronomical difference

Apple Vision Pro was never touted as a gaming device, so I get that. I still hope Facebook/Meta keeps up with the Quest.

Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say

#218

Post by seanmcdirmid » Fri, Jul 12, 2024, 7:07 PM UTC

Someone wrote: post #171

haunter wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>maybe I'm missing something obvious here. It's an expensive gadget for a niche [0] market. $3500 is an incredibly high price for what it is. 0, https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/ 1.75% of Steam users have a VR headset as of June this year which is lower than the people who are using Linux for gaming (2.08%). So you can see how small the VR market is. And the top alternatives are $500 (Quest 3) and $1000 (Valve…

> $3500 is an incredibly high price for what it is. I think “$3500 is an incredibly high price for what it does for me” is true for most consumers, but if that were incredibly high for what it is , we’d see other companies sell comparable hardware at half the price. I also think that means they have a bigger problem than just bringing the price down. What it is is incredible, but what it does for me ? Mwah. I don’t t…

It could have worked for a more physical experience, but the Vision Pro does less for me than even an Oculus Quest 2. No controllers, no haptics, I just get that it wasn't aimed at me but I'm scratching my head about what they were going for. Even Meta isn't to keen on the experiences I value in VR (basically fitness), and even though they support it, I get the feeling that they would much rather be doing social experiences...I hope someone enters the VR space in the fitness area with more enthusiasm.

Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say

#219

Post by seanmcdirmid » Fri, Jul 12, 2024, 7:14 PM UTC

crazygringo wrote: post #103

crooked-v wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a combination of two things: there's not enough users, and the device just isn't comfortable enough for that niche of ultra-enthusiast users to use it for extended periods. Apple really shot themselves in the foot here with the headstrap design and by weighing it down with the metal and glass housing. Even the "good" strap is unbalanced and uncomfortable and so practical for very little but consuming content in…

> practical for very little but consuming content in a reclined position. You can create content in a recline position too. It's utterly fantastic, actually, if you just have a little tray in your lap for a wireless keyboard, and a mouse on a table on your armrest. I really think the future of VR is mostly in a reclined position, actually -- headset weight becomes a non-issue, and it just avoids developing postural p…

I still think VR's killer app is fitness. So definitely not sitting or lying down, but maybe stuck in place (since you can't really run around inside) like an aerobics class. I've never experienced motion sickness, but with BeatSaber you are just standing while the blocks come at you, and while you move around a little bit, it isn't like a roller coaster.

Reclining...why would you want to do that? It sounds like a huge step back, just give me a Switch at that point.

Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say

#220

Post by anakaine » Fri, Jul 12, 2024, 11:15 PM UTC

zamadatix wrote: post #143

anakaine wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When the price is higher than many people's average monthly post tax income, and its not a must have device like a fridge or washing machine, it's definitely a pricing problem. In 2022 the US median personal income was $47,000. That's pre tax. Consider approximations with averages and marginal tax rates and take out 12% for tax, and you have $3445 per month median personal income. The apple headset is $3500. Take out…

The entire VR market, including budget headsets, sold somewhere near 8 million units globally last year. In the US alone over 15 million new vehicles were sold at an average price greater than the personal income you quoted. Individual luxury car models even sold more than 100k units in the same timespan. One can get a good new vehicle for significantly less than $47,000 so there are clearly tens of millions of Ameri…

In all fairness my opening paragraph highlighted that it's a highly discretionary / luxury purchase by direct inference.

Your statement that 8m units were sold followed later by a statement that it would have not sold well in the budget market is also contradictory.

I stand by my claim that the cost is the main issue, because when you're playing a volume sales game in a small market and you're significantly more expensive than the competition, and your product is a purely luxury / discretionary purpose, you're probably screwed up your market segmentation and product placement.