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Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say
121–130 of 223 posts
Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say
#122"...analysts have noted that many who bought one were confused by its more complicated setup and what they were supposed to use it for in their daily lives." There's the root of the problem right there. Apple's best successes had a very clear purpose in mind from the beginning: - iPod: 1,000 songs in your pocket - iPhone: A phone, an internet communicator, an iPod - iPad: Media consumption AVP didn't have a clear pur…
Headphones for your eyes. That's the product and its inevitable in some form or another. Its just too early
People don't like stuff on their face. People wear contacts or get surgery to avoid wearing glasses. People don't like stuff on their face. I paid for college working in the eyeglass industry and it's nearly universal that people "wish they didn't have to wear glasses". People don't like stuff on their face.
Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say
#123Let's say you are committed to AR/VR research. It's expensive. Let's say your research has generated tech that can be built into $2500 headset. You still have a long road to get better tech into a lower price range.
Then somebody proposes that you sell 100,000 of what you have right now for $3500. This provides $100 million dollars of profit to offset your research costs. In the end, you manufacture 80,000 and sell 60,000 of them. So you net $10 million plus 60,000 free testers (well, 1000 after everyone stops using them at all) plus 20,000 surplus units to use in various research.
Gizmodo can paint this as a commercial failure. Apple could sell the 20,000 unsold units for $100 each. That would generate another $2 million of profit even at a $2400 marginal loss per unit. They would fly off the shelves and Gizmodo would paint this as a huge commercial success. Even though Apple still wouldn't hit their 100,000 unit target. It would create panic in Apple's competitors even though they actually make a profit on $500 headsets.
So read this however you want. It's a commercial failure because it only netted $10 million dollars and might only net $1 million/year going forward. Or it's a successful funding round on the road to cheaper and more capable future products.
I'm not particularly an Apple fan, but I think it's silly to portray this in such a bad light. Would somebody like SimulaVR love to experience such a "failure"?
(All numbers above except the 100,000 target units and the $3500 price are hypothetical.)
Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say
#124Earlier quoted context omitted.
That just sounds so utterly dystopian that I would never want to be part of it.
If you have lower back pain from sitting in a chair with bad posture for decades, it's a godsend. When you're "in the zone" programming on a screen or writing a book or editing a movie, it's not like you're particularly aware of your environment anyways. And like I said -- not building up the lower back problems that will haunt you later in life.
I already work reclined. But not strapped into goggles that isolate me from my environment and the people around me.
Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'd happily buy one for $500, but $3500 is way too much
considering it has a CPU that is as powerful as the MacBook Pro, I find your target price extremely optimistic. hopefully once the display tech becomes cheaper, the overall price will come down quite a bit. But $500? unrealistic expectations IMO. Maybe in 10 years.
Then it won’t be a success for another ten years. You can call them unrealistic expectations if you’d like but I’ll drop thousands on a laptop because I use it day in day out. There’s simply no chance I’ll be doing the same with a Vision so the price I’m willing to pay is adjusted accordingly.
Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly. Revisit this stat in a couple of years once we are all talking about Vision Pro v3? This product is going to take a while to a) get good and b) go mainstream
"It's a dev kit for those willing to spend on early access to Apple's AR/VR ecosystem" was always the sane take, it was really weird watching so many people convince themselves that it was a mass-market product and then convince themselves that the failure of a mass-market audience to materialize was some kind of a disaster. I have no visibility inside Apple so I don't know if they drank their own kool-aid on this on…
Right, $3500 is a really clear signal that Apple knows what it's doing, that this is not even an attempt to be a mainstream product yet.
Who knows if they'll succeed in the end, but this is just the beginning of a long term project.
Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure that's right. Apple launched the watch thinking "apps like iphone" A few versions in, they settled on "watches are for health and fitness" Ben Thompson discusses the AVP as an immersive iPad, and that's kind of the problem. It's too locked down to be my productivity device (something that could justifiably command a premium price), and my entertainment budget isn't that high for one person (I already hav…
The watch is a bit odd, though? It is, far and away, more of a fashion purchase than it is anything else. Yes, I think it has some good uses for health/fitness. I can't bring myself to think it is the driver for people buying it.
> Yes, I think it has some good uses for health/fitness. I can't bring myself to think it is the driver for people buying it.
I think you're just mistaken, then. Health and fitness absolutely is the driver.
They tried to market it as a fashion purchase in v1, and then gave up on that. It can still be fun with different straps, but I don't know of anyone who considers it a fashion purchase.
Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say
#128"...analysts have noted that many who bought one were confused by its more complicated setup and what they were supposed to use it for in their daily lives." There's the root of the problem right there. Apple's best successes had a very clear purpose in mind from the beginning: - iPod: 1,000 songs in your pocket - iPhone: A phone, an internet communicator, an iPod - iPad: Media consumption AVP didn't have a clear pur…
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Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Apple is probably going to have to light a gigantic stack of cash on fire to try to course correct this. Or they’ll cut their losses and write it off entirely Much cheaper: ship a bug that allows OS jailbreak to run VMs. See what unshackled creators develop. Add official interfaces to support those use cases. Rinse & repeat.
As someone who spent a lot of time tinkering with jailbroken iPhones back in the day, there was always an ongoing rumor in the jailbreak community (maybe better to call it a myth or legend) that Apple knowingly let jailbreak vulnerabilities out. Apple probably could benefit massively from letting enthusiast users tinker with the OS in a way that gives Apple a bit of plausible deniability.
With modern security measures that’s definitely a thing of the past. If Apple intentionally adds bugs it will be mostly used to make spyware so they can’t do that anymore
Re: Apple Vision Pro U.S. Sales Are All but Dead, Market Analysts Say
#130I was in an Apple Store the other day for something unrelated. While waiting, I asked one of the employees if I should try the AVP. Their response was "it's cool I guess. Probably not worth the effort." Pretty telling.
Wow, it sounds like the quality of employees at the Apple Store has really taken a nose dive. I could never imagine anyone who worked there saying something like that in the past.