EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode' • Hacker News Board

Re: EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode'

#131

Post by Wytwwww » Wed, Mar 06, 2024, 9:28 PM UTC

garaetjjte wrote: post #71

Etherlord87 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Make an experiment and try to predict what would happen otherwise. Or just read my prediction below. Countries who don't force people to fight are: - much weaker in the case of war, - with such policies not being (a well hidden) secret, an attractive target for a hostile country. So such countries are going to statistically be attacked more often, and statistically lose more often. So if you don't counter those stati…

I don't have perfect solution, but "to avoid being defeated by evil we must become evil ourselves" is not really the point. There are things that are lose-lose, making war worse for both sides. For things like chemical weapons we have treaties banning it, while for conscription all politicians are quiet about while pretending to care about human rights.

> but "to avoid being defeated by evil we must become evil ourselves" is not really the point

Well the world is not black and white.

> For things like chemical weapons we have treaties banning it

There was a treaty Russia signed (along with US, UK etc.) which guaranteed Ukrainian Independance back in the 90s. All treaties are less than worthless if you can't enforce them.

> while for conscription all politicians are quiet about while pretending to care about human rights.

Would you rather have conscription and not live in Russia? Or have conscription and live in Russia? Realistically these are basically the only options some people have.

Re: EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode'

#132

Post by type0 » Wed, Mar 06, 2024, 9:38 PM UTC

torlok wrote: post #108

type0 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> is farmers getting shafted by cheap grain imports from Ukraine due to lax control at the border, no tracking, and no punishments for buyers. they say that and yet much larger traffic of grain from Russia somehow doesn't hurt those farmers?! maybe it's because a lot of it is stolen Ukrainian grain so everyone should be hush shush about it

For 2023, the grain imported from Russia to Poland amounts to 1.2% of the grain imported from Ukraine. Should be 0%, but it's definitively not "much larger". How are you comforable with just making things up like that.

I was talking about EU

Re: EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode'

#133

Post by verdverm » Wed, Mar 06, 2024, 10:16 PM UTC

ryathal wrote: post #114

verdverm wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an outdated statistic. The EU as a whole is spending above the 2% and if you include broader items like railway improvements to facilitate moving US tanks, the number more than doubles. Some EU countries have given more than 2% to Ukraine on top of this The Data on NATO Responsibility Sharing - CSIS https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YihXoQjnYc

You can play games with numbers all you want to make things look less bad, but many of the major EU economies have significantly neglected military spending. Not only is there a huge lack of munitions across the continent, there's a huge lack of ability to make any. Sure the invasion of Ukraine made these countries scramble to start fixing decades of neglect, but the damage has already been done.

What's your point or counter point?

The numbers are about where the EU is now, not where it was 2+ years ago. The EU has increased spending and is increasing production capacity. They are doing something about it. The US seems unable to do anything right now because of politics

The EU has had a very significant change in attitude

- 2 years ago about defense spending

- 2 months about defense independence, after hearing Trump's comments about NATO and House Republicans unwillingness to pass foreign defense aid

Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea have taken note as well

Re: EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode'

#134

Post by ecoquant » Wed, Mar 06, 2024, 10:32 PM UTC

Wytwwww wrote: post #130

kelipso wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are now moving the discussion from practicality to idealism. Doesn't really matter what ideals they have when they have to consider getting destroyed or not.

Japan was facing a superpower with unlimited resources. Ukraine is facing a second-rate region power which has nothing going for them besides nukes and a large pool of servile and suicidal recruits (so a bit like Japan in that sense). Not exactly equivalent situations?

[flagged]

Re: EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode'

#135

Post by tim333 » Wed, Mar 06, 2024, 10:35 PM UTC

seydor wrote: post #20

Sure, we will hire a few thousand contractors to form a network of committees and prepare multiple sustainability plans and guidelines for the next seven years. We will also declare war illegal and fine violators with 70% of their gdp. Whoever dares to challenge european sovereignty will be met with the collective wrath of our cookie prompts The EU is not only materially incapable of war mode (too many second rate ca…

>materially incapable of war mode

I think it's more reluctant to go into war mode. Europe did plenty of war in the not too distant past.

It was interesting doing a tour of Ypres where my grandad did artillery in WW1. It was really rather similar to the current war in Ukriane - largely static trenches with people lobbing shells at each other. Bigger though - approx 1bn shells fired and 14 million dead.

No one really wants to repeat that expect perhaps Putin. I suspect the current slowness in making 1/1000th as many shells is more down to a lack of enthusiasm for the whole business than being less capeable than a century ago. Indeed I thought we were over that stuff but I guess if Putin wants to go retro and roll tanks into the neighbours territories we are forced to respond.

Re: EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode'

#136

Post by tim333 » Wed, Mar 06, 2024, 11:24 PM UTC

Etherlord87 wrote: post #47

leereeves wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody wants to lie in the trenches to protect other people's wealth, but that's what usually happens. The poor are sent to fight and die, or to return home to poverty and disability if they survive. I'm amazed anyone is willing to sign up to risk their life for $2K/month, even here in the US where military service has long been glorified.

This is why you need various manipulation* techniques: religion (to decrease the fear of death), patriotism, anger, glorification of war and heroism... I sometimes wonder if maybe the poor state of modern education is not just incompetence or a result of a cynical idea "stupid society is easier to control", but instead someone analyzed that an intelligent society would become atheist/cynical/pragmatic etc. resulting…

If you look back at history mankind seems quite naturally inclined towards fighting wars. The manipulation techniques are more needed to maintain peace.

Indeed if you look at our closest animal relatives, the chimps, they are quite inclined to wipe out their neighbours without needing religion or cash payment.

Re: EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode'

#137

Post by tim333 » Wed, Mar 06, 2024, 11:30 PM UTC

leereeves wrote: post #14

The_Colonel wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being "defence friendly" means also cultivating the mentality that lying in the trenches for your country/culture/values might be necessary. Forget arms industry or military budget as a percent of GDP. The main problem is that Europe lacks the fighting spirit (with some exceptions like Poland). Countries like Germany will fold / capitulate to any demands if they suffer thousands of casualties.

Nobody wants to lie in the trenches to protect other people's wealth, but that's what usually happens. The poor are sent to fight and die, or to return home to poverty and disability if they survive. I'm amazed anyone is willing to sign up to risk their life for $2K/month, even here in the US where military service has long been glorified.

I think it's seldom to protect other peoples wealth. I'm trying to think of an example where that was the case. More typically, as a Brit our last big war was fighting Hitler as we didn't like fascism and that. It was very costly for us wealth wise compared with say making a pact with him as he would have liked.

Re: EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode'

#138

Post by tim333 » Wed, Mar 06, 2024, 11:46 PM UTC

type0 wrote: post #77

The_Colonel wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let me present you an alternative. Europe can build up a credible defense capability which will provide a strong deterrence to Russia. In that case you don't have to die in the trenches and you don't have to spend your life running away from the aggressor. Nazi Germany did not invade Switzerland, USSR did not invade Finland (after suffering horrible losses in the Winter war), even though both had their own claims on…

it's a bit more nuanced: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlandization

Also of course the USSR did invade Finland but got stopped before they could take that much territory, maybe a bit like what will happen in Ukraine.

Re: EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode'

#139

Post by kranke155 » Wed, Mar 06, 2024, 11:56 PM UTC

argentier wrote: post #103

mopsi wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is quite a bit of evidence No, there isn't, the whole conspiracy theory lies on a few sentences taken out of context. Spend an hour vetting sources and you'll find that it's a Russian PR spin without any substance. Anyone can "prove" with public statements from top officials that the US goverment is run by aliens from outer space, if they can take three sentences of their choice out of context and freely igno…

Don't be ridiculous. There are interviews with both sources that are available online.

And they demonstrate this story to be true beyond all doubt?

Re: EU aims to shift European arms industry to 'war economy mode'

#140

Post by zluudd » Wed, Mar 06, 2024, 11:57 PM UTC

hackandthink wrote: post #116

mopsi wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (live in Germany) East or West? :)

Lived all my live in the West and West Berlin, worked a few years in East Berlin. But you have a point. East Germans are much more sceptical of supporting the war. They are tired of propaganda. (it seems to be different in Poland: Sikorski is a crazy war hawk, don't know about ordinary polish people)

we are all tired of propaganda, especially from the Tagesschau