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DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

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Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#171

Post by clansimus »

daveguy wrote: post #48
smt88 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My first thought was that GP was saying DefCon attendees would be counting cards, which is an effective and legal way to beat the house[1] (until you're caught and banned from the casino). 1. https://www.freep.com/story/entertainment/nightlife/2016/04/...

Casinos in Vegas use too many decks and reshuffle frequently enough that there is no edge gained over the house when card counting.

There's plenty of doubledeck blackjack with good penetration in Vegas, especially in high limits rooms. The problem nowadays is that the casinos are also counting, and the patterns are simple and easy to track with the tech we all have. Changing your bet even a couple times based on the count can have the pit boss getting a call to remove you.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#172

Post by andy800 »

p-e-w wrote: post #99
nodesocket wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doubtful, I'm sure it's related to the constant attacks against their infrastructure they must defend against (let's be honest, I'm sure Caesars is not defending successfully). The juice just ain't worth the squeeze. They have a business to run, and the risk of having a bunch of drunken and high hackers who happen to be the best in the world running amuck is not their idea of a good corporate event.

> the constant attacks against their infrastructure they must defend against (let's be honest, I'm sure Caesars is not defending successfully) If there's any place in the private sector where I'd expect security (including digital security) to be literally top notch, a casino would be it. And casinos don't fuck around. If they catch some "uber haxor" laying a finger on their networks, you can bet they'd have him arre…

> I'd expect security (including digital security) to be literally top notch

I know why you'd expect that, regardless, you'd be very wrong

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#173

Post by shiandow »

Eji1700 wrote: post #142
c0pium wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are certainly a lot of DefCon attendees who think that this describes them. In my observation they are all very incorrect, usually humorously so fortunately.

Vegas makes a fuckload of money off everyone who thinks they’re smart but doesn’t understand statistics

They probably make quite a lot off people who think they understand statistics as well.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#174

Post by tptacek »

wkat4242 wrote: post #124

Too bad. Now I will definitely never go there. My work sometimes gets free tickets for black hat but that's a totally boring business conference. Not worth going to on its own. I hate mingling with sales suits, I'm a real techie. Def con was something I would be looking forward to and if my work paid for black hat I could have stayed the extra days to go there.

Black Hat is the largest North American venue for vulnerability research. It's one of the closest things in the industry to a serious, peer reviewed conference, at least at this scale. It's certainly not the social scene Defcon is (indeed, it replaces that social scene with an enterprise sales hookup scene), but it's definitely not a "totally boring business conference". Black Hat talks are generally much better than Defcon talks.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#175

Post by vertis »

flomo wrote: post #146
nimos wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt they would cancel a contract already in place for that reason. Not renew the contract - sure. But canceling an already scheduled event because of low revenue per guest doesn't seem very likely to me? Or maybe it was some sort of ongoing agreement and canceling it was effectively "not renewing".

Everyone is missing "but now held at the Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC) with workshops and training at the Sahara" part. So this more like they got passed to a different venue. Not "vegas hates them".

The post says they had to do significant work to secure another venue. While it's possible the author could be lying there is no evidence of this so we must, at this point, take them at their word.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#176

Post by rekoil »

wkat4242 wrote: post #127
killjoywashere wrote: post #105

You know, why the fuck is DEFCON in August, in Vegas? Like, you know a nice place to visit in August? Kodiak, Alaska. Portsmouth, Maine. Sydney. List of places I would never want to visit in August? Vegas. Houston. Vegas. New Orleans. Vegas. Mumbai? Maybe. Baghdad? Definitely not. Also, Vegas. My friends in Christ, why, does anyone, think Vegas is a good idea in August?

Sydney is pretty cold in August. Definitely not the time of year to be there.

Pretty sure that was the entire point.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#177

Post by andy800 »

somenameforme wrote: post #153
zmgsabst wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to misunderstand the 75% rate: The requirement is that the expected value for a play on a machine is >75%. And most are >90%. But that’s not a cap on profit margin, as 25% of the expense for a play may be more than the cost of that play. Eg, having a machine that costs $1 with $0.75 expected return (and $0.25 revenue for the casino) may only cost the casino $0.10 a play — which would be a 60% profit margin.

Expected return on a machine and profit margin on that machine are literally identical. Imagine there's a hypothetical $1 machine where we simply remove variance. So you insert $1 and you get $0.75 back. It should be clear that for each $1 of revenue, the casino profits $0.25. This is a 25% profit margin. Variance can add some noise, but does not change the long-term expectation, which is what the regulations are bas…

You don't understand casino accounting. Gaming WIN is revenue. If you put $100 in and get $75 out, that's $25 in marginal revenue with zero corresponding costs. The $100 is a statistic that the casino records, but it does not factor into profit calculations (total, or margin).

Gaming does have expenses -- labor (mostly dealers and slot attendants & mechanics), costs of purchasing and leasing the machines, and some other miscellaneous stuff... but profit margins on pure gaming are very high (and not limited in any way by the 25% maximum hold percentage that you reference)

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#178

Post by boomboomsubban »

somenameforme wrote: post #153
zmgsabst wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to misunderstand the 75% rate: The requirement is that the expected value for a play on a machine is >75%. And most are >90%. But that’s not a cap on profit margin, as 25% of the expense for a play may be more than the cost of that play. Eg, having a machine that costs $1 with $0.75 expected return (and $0.25 revenue for the casino) may only cost the casino $0.10 a play — which would be a 60% profit margin.

Expected return on a machine and profit margin on that machine are literally identical. Imagine there's a hypothetical $1 machine where we simply remove variance. So you insert $1 and you get $0.75 back. It should be clear that for each $1 of revenue, the casino profits $0.25. This is a 25% profit margin. Variance can add some noise, but does not change the long-term expectation, which is what the regulations are bas…

Look at it a different way. The casino never had that dollar, you inserted a quarter and they gave you light show that cost them a cent to put on. You enjoyed it so much, you did it four times.

Now the casino has your dollar and it's "costs" were four cents in electricity/maintenance. A much higher profit tham 25%.

Re: DEF CON 32 Was Canceled. We Un-Canceled it

#179

Post by dmurray »

somenameforme wrote: post #153
zmgsabst wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to misunderstand the 75% rate: The requirement is that the expected value for a play on a machine is >75%. And most are >90%. But that’s not a cap on profit margin, as 25% of the expense for a play may be more than the cost of that play. Eg, having a machine that costs $1 with $0.75 expected return (and $0.25 revenue for the casino) may only cost the casino $0.10 a play — which would be a 60% profit margin.

Expected return on a machine and profit margin on that machine are literally identical. Imagine there's a hypothetical $1 machine where we simply remove variance. So you insert $1 and you get $0.75 back. It should be clear that for each $1 of revenue, the casino profits $0.25. This is a 25% profit margin. Variance can add some noise, but does not change the long-term expectation, which is what the regulations are bas…

That sounds intuitive, but that's just not how revenue is defined for a business like a casino. The casino had $0.25 revenue, and its profit is whatever is left from the $0.25 after paying for heat, light, maintenance, cashiers, security, etc.

Other businesses are treated like this too. If you are a high frequency trading firm and you buy 1000 shares stock for $99.99 each and sell for $100, you didn't have $100k of revenue - you had $10, and your profit is what's left after paying for staff and computers.

Yes, if your business was a supermarket, it would indeed work the other way, and it's not obvious to the literal- minded where one treatment should stop and the other should start.

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