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Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

nytimes.com

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Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#261

Post by saiya-jin »

speeder wrote: post #254
saiya-jin wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree with that shrink part, you must be living in a bubble for the family part. Literally all my colleagues in past 5 jobs (that few hundreds guys) have kids if they are over say 35. All colleagues of my wife. All of our friends. I cover western (Switzerland) and eastern Europe here. Same for Swiss colleagues and foreigners. Folks with nannies or family close but also raising their kids just by themselves, l…

I am curious what country and industry you work. Most developed countries and some major developing ones have less than 2 children per couple in their data. The data is probably correct thus your anecdote would be an exception. Thus makes me wonder what industry is so exceptional?

we're in HN, its IT, software dev to be more precise

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#262

Post by enaaem »

loeg wrote: post #139
miohtama wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It also means that foreign direct investments to China will dry up. However they’d likely dry up any case due to US vs. China trade war.

A little bit, maybe, but probably not entirely. The joke is that debt investors have no memory. For example, Argentina has defaulted many times in recent memory but was still able to market a 100-year bond in 2017 (which it has already defaulted on).

Creditors lose money all the time. It’s priced in the interest rate. They can still win in the long run with a diverse large portfolio.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#263

Post by reustle »

anon-sre-srm wrote: post #255
valgaze wrote: post #226

In downtown Los Angeles directly across the street from Staples Center/crypto where the Lakers play and a stone's throw from The Palm steakhouse is an imposing yet unfinished skyscraper. The idea was retail on the bottom, hotel in the middle, and $$ residences higher up It has languished incomplete-- basically rotting-- in part because of EB-5 financing trouble + Oceanwide. It's expensive to finish, expensive to demo…

Residential is the way forward. Many projects and formerly commercial buildings are getting the apartment conversion treatment, complete with bullshit interior dead spaces to meet regulatory requirements. It's not a lie, it's commercial real estate! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbTR3lDuYqk&list=PLkH0kJMHYO...

> complete with bullshit interior dead spaces to meet regulatory requirements.

At least in NYC, the requirement is that bedrooms need to have a window. Are there more requirements than that? I've had kitchens w/out windows in NYC. Bedrooms needing windows doesn't seem very BS to me.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#264

Post by petesergeant »

Anotheroneagain wrote: post #249
rightbyte wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ye the competition is too high in the base and the profit taken by middle men. However, I think covid changed that, where producers collectivly realized that if they just raise prices the middle men need to pay up. Being stuck in a sector that operates "efficiently" sucks. You want guilds, like lawyers and doctors, or inefficiency, like the financial sector.

No, not like that: Evergrande is in the first group here, fruitlessly producing something of no real value, as there is too much of it. The second group are those who invested in Evergrande itself, or the housing it built. It sucks for everyone. It sucks for Evergrande, as sooner or later it had to go bankrupt. It sucks for those who invested in the housing, as it's clear that if they actually tried to sell or rent o…

> I think there are really no winners here

As with any bubble, the winners are the people who cashed out at the right time

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#265

Post by petesergeant »

misja111 wrote: post #234
resolutebat wrote: post #193

In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…

> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. The effect of China's property bubble was an oversupply of houses, leading to unnaturally low property prices. The long term effect will be a consolidation in the property branch, leading to less supply and higher property prices. Whether this is good or bad…

Was there an oversupply in actually built properties in places people want to live? My understanding is that property prices in major cities are still massively unaffordable

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#266

Post by bArray »

KaiserPro wrote: post #245
bArray wrote: post #239

> Months after China Evergrande ran out of cash and defaulted in 2021, investors around the world scooped up the property developer’s discounted I.O.U.’s, betting that the Chinese government would eventually step in to bail it out. One thing investors should always be clear about with the CCP - as a foreigner you will always be screwed over if it benefits the CCP. The CCP is extremely hostile, even having strained re…

> which should still be under partial UK control and therefore an attractive entry for foreign investment. As a brit, much as my colonial arse would love this to be true, the lease expired and Britain never had any real control over HK post handover. The only power we had was economic, and we've well and truly fucked that. the UK of the 80/90s is not the UK of today. For better or worse.

Pretty sure there was an agreement in place [1]:

> This blueprint would be elaborated on in the Hong Kong Basic Law (the post-handover regional constitution) and the central government's policies for the territory were to remain unchanged for a period of 50 years after 1997.

We should have simply never have handed it back over to China and allowed Hong Kong to remain independent. From what I understand, it was some compromise that involved the Royal Family.

> As a brit, much as my colonial arse would love this to be true [..]

I'm not going to paint a picture that British colonisation was all good, but some Countries had it better. In recent times the people of Hong Kong and Burma (Myanmar) have begged for British intervention.

> [..] the UK of the 80/90s is not the UK of today. For better or worse.

I would love to disagree with you, but I can't. I suspect most Countries are in precisely the same place, where the average person feels as though things have gotten worse.

I think the way to solve it would be to take a near-term economic down-turn and solve our fundamental issues: the interest on debt alone is astronomical, local governments need cleaning up (if only people knew the half of how corrupt they are), large investment into local security (military, NHS, energy, food, manufacturing), etc, etc. The next 20-40 years would be miserable but we would emerge strong.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-British_Joint_Declaration

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#267

Post by KptMarchewa »

saiya-jin wrote: post #247
pmontra wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The defaults changed, at least in the West. When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children. That was in part helped by the lack of widespread use of contraceptives. The norm in my primary school was two or three kids per family. I remember only one classmate with no brothers or sisters. Of course zero children families w…

While I agree with that shrink part, you must be living in a bubble for the family part. Literally all my colleagues in past 5 jobs (that few hundreds guys) have kids if they are over say 35. All colleagues of my wife. All of our friends. I cover western (Switzerland) and eastern Europe here. Same for Swiss colleagues and foreigners. Folks with nannies or family close but also raising their kids just by themselves, l…

I'm 30 and literally none of my friends that age have kids.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#268

Post by bArray »

saiya-jin wrote: post #248
bArray wrote: post #239

> Months after China Evergrande ran out of cash and defaulted in 2021, investors around the world scooped up the property developer’s discounted I.O.U.’s, betting that the Chinese government would eventually step in to bail it out. One thing investors should always be clear about with the CCP - as a foreigner you will always be screwed over if it benefits the CCP. The CCP is extremely hostile, even having strained re…

Neither China nor Russia are communist countries for very long time. Folks here with more experience can describe better than me what actual regime there is, to me it seems like some mixture of brutal capitalism and regulated markets, dictatorship of the elite, all drowning in corruption. What labels they put themselves on doesn't really matter, does it.

> Neither China nor Russia are communist countries for very long time.

The Soviet Union is since 1922 [1] and basically still exists today under the leadership of Putin. The CCP is since 1921 [2] and is still in power today. Both have 100+ years under their belts.

> Folks here with more experience can describe better than me what actual regime there is, to me it seems like some mixture of brutal capitalism and regulated markets, dictatorship of the elite, all drowning in corruption.

It's what communism always looks like. At some point all systems are setup to incentivize the individual in order to ensure production happens. Over use of socialism almost always results in some percentage of the population choosing to do nothing to support the society they benefit from. It's why ideas like UBI will never work. The only other way to ensure production happens is to use the stick rather than the carrot.

> What labels they put themselves on doesn't really matter, does it.

Almost a "real communism has never been tried!" type argument.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Communist_Party

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#269

Post by toyg »

barrysteve wrote: post #258
pmontra wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The defaults changed, at least in the West. When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children. That was in part helped by the lack of widespread use of contraceptives. The norm in my primary school was two or three kids per family. I remember only one classmate with no brothers or sisters. Of course zero children families w…

Porn and contraceptives did a lot of damage. It used to be that deciding to conceive made parents get their child into schooling and a lifelong career. Instutions were built and maintainted to support inflow of children and stable corporations were kept alfoat by a growing populace. Making conception optional for sex has knocked over most of the stability there was in the west and people are scrambling to replace it…

> Instutions were built and maintainted to support inflow of children and stable corporations were kept alfoat by a growing populace.

It's absurd to attribute the failure of modern capitalism to demographic flows or contraception.

Western corporations were relatively stable only because the rate of technological disruption was lower and, more importantly, the rate of overall financialization of the economy was so much lower. Capital moved very slowly, and financial instruments were few, often strictly regulated. Most capital was in steady manufacturing and agriculture business, rather than in volatile service industries. That made for a view of the economy where businesses were an institutional part of society, with roles and responsibilities and connections to locality.

Once technological disruption and financialization accelerated, unshackled capital steamrolled society into doing what it's best for capital pretty much all the time, demographics be damned. Part of the push towards later and later parenthood is due to the increased specialization necessary to tech-intensive capital-fuelled businesses, requiring longer and longer training times and complete dedication for several years on top of that - all to earn unstable jobs that disappear very shortly, thanks to more and more automation.

Yes, something is broken in the West: the needs of capital have trumped the needs of people for two generations, and now we're paying the price for it. You won't fix this through demographic tinkering, but through societal and political change. In fact, increasing demographic pressure on Western societies, at this point, is courting disaster.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#270

Post by rvnx »

datadrivenangel wrote: post #54
rekttrader wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

USDT is the 25th largest holder of T-bills. This is a bit of bullshit fud.

If they only have 50% of the money they need, they're still missing half, even if that half is huge.

It won't be missing anyway, because they are getting paid interest on what is still here :) Whether it's a scam or not, it works.
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