251–260 of 364 posts
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I would call it a Great Depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-... . And the depression probably started in 2021 or 2022.
> And the depression probably started in 2021 or 2022. GDP is generally a bogus metric but it's an odd kind of depression that has a 5% growth in it.
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The defaults changed, at least in the West. When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children. That was in part helped by the lack of widespread use of contraceptives. The norm in my primary school was two or three kids per family. I remember only one classmate with no brothers or sisters. Of course zero children families w…
While I agree with that shrink part, you must be living in a bubble for the family part. Literally all my colleagues in past 5 jobs (that few hundreds guys) have kids if they are over say 35. All colleagues of my wife. All of our friends. I cover western (Switzerland) and eastern Europe here. Same for Swiss colleagues and foreigners. Folks with nannies or family close but also raising their kids just by themselves, l…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The defaults changed, at least in the West. When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children. That was in part helped by the lack of widespread use of contraceptives. The norm in my primary school was two or three kids per family. I remember only one classmate with no brothers or sisters. Of course zero children families w…
While I agree with that shrink part, you must be living in a bubble for the family part. Literally all my colleagues in past 5 jobs (that few hundreds guys) have kids if they are over say 35. All colleagues of my wife. All of our friends. I cover western (Switzerland) and eastern Europe here. Same for Swiss colleagues and foreigners. Folks with nannies or family close but also raising their kids just by themselves, l…
And to your anecdotal evidence, let me respond with anecdotal evidence... aren't we constantly hearing news about declining birth rates and an aging population? I have heard this from Korea, Japan, the United States, generally about Europe and specifically about the Netherlands.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The defaults changed, at least in the West. When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children. That was in part helped by the lack of widespread use of contraceptives. The norm in my primary school was two or three kids per family. I remember only one classmate with no brothers or sisters. Of course zero children families w…
While I agree with that shrink part, you must be living in a bubble for the family part. Literally all my colleagues in past 5 jobs (that few hundreds guys) have kids if they are over say 35. All colleagues of my wife. All of our friends. I cover western (Switzerland) and eastern Europe here. Same for Swiss colleagues and foreigners. Folks with nannies or family close but also raising their kids just by themselves, l…
In downtown Los Angeles directly across the street from Staples Center/crypto where the Lakers play and a stone's throw from The Palm steakhouse is an imposing yet unfinished skyscraper. The idea was retail on the bottom, hotel in the middle, and $$ residences higher up It has languished incomplete-- basically rotting-- in part because of EB-5 financing trouble + Oceanwide. It's expensive to finish, expensive to demo…
It's not a lie, it's commercial real estate!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbTR3lDuYqk&list=PLkH0kJMHYO...
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The problem is can you trust the structure/QA process, is the documentation in place etc. Otherwise it’s a liability nightmare
Anyone with the means and ability to take over a project is going to know what they’re getting into before signing any papers or handing over any money :)
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> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. I unironically think a property bubble pop is a great way to defeat the demographic slump in the long term. That and the recent crackdown/reforms on private education makes me think the party is aware that property bubbles and education costs are a liability
The defaults changed, at least in the West. When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children. That was in part helped by the lack of widespread use of contraceptives. The norm in my primary school was two or three kids per family. I remember only one classmate with no brothers or sisters. Of course zero children families w…
yes, that might actually be _the_ biggest incoming issue china has (through much much less because of housing prices).
Basically by combining one child politics with various cultural and economic effects lead to a very strongly favor for having a boy over a girl. Combine that with natural reduction in birthrate due to reduction of poverty and some other factors it lead to a situation where China isn't just approaching a shrinking of population size but more like a collapse which could easily lead to various social and economic emergencies (like collapse of rent system, collapse of health system, problems to feed all elderly people etc.). Given the current "moral" direction of their government I wouldn't be surprised that if they don't find a better solution they might either start a war to kill many of their young and mid aged single men and/or start to mass euthanizing old people, at least if sick and/or poor. They even have the perfect excuse wrt. of they PR represent that: "hey we just copied Canada why are you complaining".
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. I unironically think a property bubble pop is a great way to defeat the demographic slump in the long term. That and the recent crackdown/reforms on private education makes me think the party is aware that property bubbles and education costs are a liability
The defaults changed, at least in the West. When I was little it was still married-with-children by default, probably at relatively young age, and people had to decide not to have children. That was in part helped by the lack of widespread use of contraceptives. The norm in my primary school was two or three kids per family. I remember only one classmate with no brothers or sisters. Of course zero children families w…
It used to be that deciding to conceive made parents get their child into schooling and a lifelong career. Instutions were built and maintainted to support inflow of children and stable corporations were kept alfoat by a growing populace.
Making conception optional for sex has knocked over most of the stability there was in the west and people are scrambling to replace it with electronics and authority.
Tack on top of that, these country wide changes were not made by local governments, but by factories and corporations gradually dragging in the tools to break our society. And immigration on top to plug the gaps.
Something's gone terribly wrong with the West and there's no weasling out of it. It's time to stand up.
In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…
it is, but it's also complicated as the problems are quite a bit different in China then in the US
the reason there was a bubble in China was because they sold (barely) affordable (apartment owned, not rented) housing to a huge amount of people while not producing it. Like they financed it similar to a snowball system. Group B buys housing but pays for the housing bought by Group A then Group C pays for Group B etc. But at some point it fell apart and people realized the housing they should have gotten "soon" isn't being build (or stuck in a partial state) and the company has no money anymore. (Kind oversimplifying the whole thing.)
To top that off there are (state build) ghost cities which have cheap appartments and acceptable building build quality, the problem is there is nothing there, no jobs(!), no supermarket, bus, people, "anything", if you are unlucky even electricity might be cut of in parts of it, (also I guess for rent not apartment ownership). (But there are also enough examples of western media reporting about ghost cities messed up because turns out just a few years later it wasn't a ghost city anymore.)
And to make that worse it's not just Evergrande. It outside of the areas with a lot of central government focus there where many cases of houses building companies which had money issues trying to pretend everything is fine by cheeping out on building cost to a point where houses build that way are basically unusable. Through from the outside it looked like there is still progress. Issue with that is, it is really hard to guess how bad it is, pro-china media most times doesn't mention it and if it says it's a rare exception and/or videos are fake, anti-china media says it's bad to a point it's everywhere, and you find little in between. And both sides are known to lie a lot.