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Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

nytimes.com

161–170 of 364 posts

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#161
post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A little bit, maybe, but probably not entirely. The joke is that debt investors have no memory. For example, Argentina has defaulted many times in recent memory but was still able to market a 100-year bond in 2017 (which it has already defaulted on).

miohtama is actually correct. Foreign investors have snatched back nearly 90% of the money they put into Chinese stocks this year (2023) https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-econom... Foreign investment in China turns negative for first time https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Foreign-investment-in-China-...

Equities are different from bonds. Bonds are being snapped up by a lot of foreign investors.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#162
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who wants to buy a half-finished building abandoned during construction This is actually not a big deal at all if you are following modern high-rise construction techniques.

The problem is can you trust the structure/QA process, is the documentation in place etc. Otherwise it’s a liability nightmare

Anyone with the means and ability to take over a project is going to know what they’re getting into before signing any papers or handing over any money :)

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your math just says the median person doesn’t buy a condo. If only the top 10% can afford them, that’s still a huge pool of people. Pretty sure median US income can’t afford a condo in NYC.

At the end of the day - prices need to be supported by incomes (buyers or renters) or magic beans.

Sure. But the median Chinese income tells you very little about the distribution of Chinese incomes.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#164
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was suspected that a lot of USDT is backed by Evergrande notes, though they have denied it. Evergrande liquidation may cause a USDT liquidation and cause USDT to lose peg. There are often idiots that will drag the rest of crypto including bitcoin with it, though.

That kind of thing has usually had the opposite effect. If USDT is worthless then you want to sell it, causing the price of Bitcoin to rise on those exchanges.

The price of USDT will fall off a cliff, yes. That won't make the price of Bitcoin rise except when denominated in USDT.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#165
post #43

That's going to be a tough liquidation. Who wants to buy a half-finished building abandoned during construction due to lack of a market? Such things have negative value.

> Who wants to buy a half-finished building abandoned during construction This is actually not a big deal at all if you are following modern high-rise construction techniques.

Is there any guarantee what you buy will ever be fully funded and finished? Sounds like a nice hole to pour your money into and never see it again. I guess you could move in without utilities if your floor is finished

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#166
post #90
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was suspected that a lot of USDT is backed by Evergrande notes, though they have denied it. Evergrande liquidation may cause a USDT liquidation and cause USDT to lose peg. There are often idiots that will drag the rest of crypto including bitcoin with it, though.

Why would the USDT tell anyone if they were no longer backed 1:1?

They haven't told anyone anything. Optimists have assumed the unknown/missing part of their "collateral" is Evergrande bonds rather than having gone up their team's collective noses.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#167

A couple of things to note: 1.) Why did it take Evergrande 3 years to liquidate? In western countries, liquidation happens in a few months. One should note that Evergrande did not get that big by itself; obviously it had the support of CCP elites to secure huge bank loans. Therefore, when it went bankrupt, the delay was to allow these elites to pull money/liquidable assets out of Evergrande. Thus after 3 years, Everg…

Do you have any education in finance, securities, law, economics, etc.?

E.g. Your Edit stating that China banned short selling. They didn't ban short selling. They banned borrowing of shares that are "restricted" to short sell.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#168
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

miohtama is actually correct. Foreign investors have snatched back nearly 90% of the money they put into Chinese stocks this year (2023) https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-econom... Foreign investment in China turns negative for first time https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Foreign-investment-in-China-...

Equities are different from bonds. Bonds are being snapped up by a lot of foreign investors.

Chinese equities suffered a US$3.4 billion outflow from non-resident portfolios in the last month of 2023, while Chinese bonds only had a marginal US$189 million inflow for the same month, according to preliminary data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) released on Thursday.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3248078/c...

That said, once foreign bond buyers realize how much foreign creditors get back from the Evergrande debt (0 cents on the dollar), pretty sure foreign bond purchases will drop fast

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#169
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's probably a dozen people reading this thread who know enough Mandarin to handle a few short Douyin videos if you could provide us with links. Though as a platform it lends itself well to amplifying extreme claims backed by speculation that play into people's fears, so unless the accounts in question have a history of well-sourced factual reporting, I'd be rather skeptical.

I'll paste one sample, it's safer 1、恒大,龙头房企,负债规模约2.6万亿,2021年9月正式宣告暴雷。 2、中梁,浙江房企,负债规模约2000亿,2022年4月公告美元债寻求展期,宣告暴雷。 3、俊发,云南房企,负债规模约1200亿,2022年4月2.19亿信托贷款未兑付,宣告暴雷。 4、融创,龙头房企,负债规模约1万亿,2022年3月美元债展期,宣告暴雷。 5、世茂,龙头房企,负债规模约4000亿,2022年3月公告60亿信托展期,宣告暴雷。 6、龙光,粤系房企,负债规模约2000亿,2022年3月公告美元债违约,宣告暴雷 7、祥生,浙江房企,负债规模约1500亿,2022年3月,1200万美元利息违约,宣告暴雷。 8、大发,上海房企,负债规模约300亿,2022年3月2228万元美元债利息无法偿还,宣告暴雷。 9、禹洲,闽系房企,负债规模约900亿,2022年3月美元债利息2125万美元违…

How did you conclude points 2 and 3 from this data?

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#170
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is can you trust the structure/QA process, is the documentation in place etc. Otherwise it’s a liability nightmare

Anyone with the means and ability to take over a project is going to know what they’re getting into before signing any papers or handing over any money :)

Right and that can also mean it might be a tough liquidation to find someone with the means and ability.

Tough doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it might be harder than normal to square it away

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