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Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

nytimes.com

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Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#221

Post by ffgjgf1 »

bigbillheck wrote: post #93
berserk1010 wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would call it a Great Depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-... . And the depression probably started in 2021 or 2022.

> And the depression probably started in 2021 or 2022. GDP is generally a bogus metric but it's an odd kind of depression that has a 5% growth in it.

> odd kind of depression

Not so much if you compare it to the original “Great Depression” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Depression

Of course assuming that 5% even means anything. Look up the Soviet official growth figures from the late 70s and 80s

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#222

Post by karmasimida »

resolutebat wrote: post #193

In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…

> domino effect of other property developers defaulting

It has already happened. Evergrande and Countrygarden, two of the biggest developers both defaulted.

The insolvency of Chinese property sector is old news.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#223

Post by mrjin »

EZ-E wrote: post #205
resolutebat wrote: post #193

In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…

> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. I unironically think a property bubble pop is a great way to defeat the demographic slump in the long term. That and the recent crackdown/reforms on private education makes me think the party is aware that property bubbles and education costs are a liability

I doubt that's going to help. The decades of property bubble has changed the mindset of the people. Just look at Japan, it's property bubble burst was decades ago, but till now, are there any signs of turnaround? Young people have enough trouble just to get a shelter and feed themselves, and now you want them to have kids which add more pressure onto what they are already struggling to coup with. How likely is that?

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#224

Post by ffgjgf1 »

ratg13 wrote: post #10
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s worse than that. They have unfinished projects with units that have already been bought on mortgage. You have people making monthly payments for unfinished apartments (and I don’t mean just unrenovated, which is expected). That guy who was banned from trading in Hong Kong in 2016 for shorting the stock in 2012 must feel vindicated, at least.

You neglect to mention that they are unfinished on purpose. In reality these "homes" are nothing more than a concrete box for legal/tax reasons. These are second or third "homes" for people that were purchased as a poor investment. The investors should eat the losses.

Allow banks to give out mortgages in such cases should be illegal too.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#225

Post by RustyRussell »

kylebenzle wrote: post #212
resolutebat wrote: post #193

In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…

Tether is by far the largest counterfeiter of USD and has already been shown to be backed largely by nothing. The introduction of Tether coincided with the hijacking of the Bitcoin GitHub repo by the for profit company Blockstream. Blockstream's Samson Mow had close ties with Tether and El Salvador dictatorial President who made Bitcoin a national currency on exchange for billions of dollars of free Tether dollars. T…

This is ridiculous, sorry. The NY AG investigation showed Tether was actually mostly backed at the time (surprising me, too!)

And the Blockstream FUD is tired (I am the longest serving technical employee at Blockstream)

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#226

Post by valgaze »

In downtown Los Angeles directly across the street from Staples Center/crypto where the Lakers play and a stone's throw from The Palm steakhouse is an imposing yet unfinished skyscraper. The idea was retail on the bottom, hotel in the middle, and $$ residences higher up

It has languished incomplete-- basically rotting-- in part because of EB-5 financing trouble + Oceanwide.

It's expensive to finish, expensive to demolish and the hellish post-covid/high-interest commercial real estate landscape means it will likely remain there for a while

It's just been sitting there because of EB-5 financing trouble. Especially in post-Covid commercial real estate environment

The fiasco took down a sitting City Councilman (who was just sentenced 13 years in prison: https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/former-los-angeles-poli...)

More info:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oceanwide_Plaza

https://www.costar.com/article/2030217368/los-angeles-skyscr...

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#228

Post by Drakim »

mrjin wrote: post #223
EZ-E wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. I unironically think a property bubble pop is a great way to defeat the demographic slump in the long term. That and the recent crackdown/reforms on private education makes me think the party is aware that property bubbles and education costs are a liability

I doubt that's going to help. The decades of property bubble has changed the mindset of the people. Just look at Japan, it's property bubble burst was decades ago, but till now, are there any signs of turnaround? Young people have enough trouble just to get a shelter and feed themselves, and now you want them to have kids which add more pressure onto what they are already struggling to coup with. How likely is that?

Yeah, it's gonna be very hard to get the genie to go back into the bottle, people won't forget that real estate is very powerful for financial speculation, and that even if the bubble bursts again and again you have plenty of years with amazing returns.

At least the same hasn't happened with food and drinkable water yet.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#229

Post by thriftwy »

hollerith wrote: post #178
thriftwy wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's wrong with Russian bonds? That land is unlikely to be going away, may contain even more mineral wealth and is climate change resistant.

The Kremlin has been saying that if the $300 billion worth of Russian Central Bank assets that were frozen in response to the invasion of Ukraine are confiscated (e.g., to give them to Ukraine), the Kremlin is going to respond by confiscating assets in Russia held by Westerners.

But that's not a problem with Russia - that's the West not honoring their IOU. Also not problem for everybody else.

The West is a minority of the Earth now, including financially.

Re: Real estate giant China Evergrande will be liquidated

#230

Post by bouncycastle »

kylebenzle wrote: post #212
resolutebat wrote: post #193

In the long term, the bursting of China's property bubble is probably good news, affordable housing is in the interest of everybody except property developers. In the short term, though, this is likely to trigger a domino effect of other property developers defaulting and a lot of pain for everybody who (thought they had) bought property with them. The real tests are whether China will allow the Chinese entity to go…

Tether is by far the largest counterfeiter of USD and has already been shown to be backed largely by nothing. The introduction of Tether coincided with the hijacking of the Bitcoin GitHub repo by the for profit company Blockstream. Blockstream's Samson Mow had close ties with Tether and El Salvador dictatorial President who made Bitcoin a national currency on exchange for billions of dollars of free Tether dollars. T…

I don't like Tether myself, but it's definitely not counterfeiting. To counterfeit something, you need to pass it off as the real thing. Tether is not the real USD, it's just a currency made to be worth around the same amount as a dollar, and the value often hovers around $1, but it's not always $1.

Another real world example is the Hong Kong Dollar. Just because it's pegged to the USD, does not mean it's counterfeit.

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