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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#111

Post by defrost »

didgetmaster wrote: post #110
CM30 wrote: post #103

Okay, here goes: - At least one major court case plays out over AI, and that completely changes the future of the technology. I personally suspect it'll be found that using copyrighted materials for LLMs is copyright infringement (in the OpenAI sense), but whatever happens, all hell is breaking out online - Social media declines in popularity. I suspect this is already happening post pandemic, since places like Twitt…

Doesn't every natural disaster these days get tied to climate change?

No.

Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanoes, Nick Cage movies, etc.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#112

Post by harryquach »

samelawrence wrote: post #71

- 2024 will see the rise of job-keeping as a core skill set for everyone except the most technical or most soft-skilled persons. Individuals will need to prove to their employer organizations that they provide more value than a bot, and you'll see an accompanying wave of "career maintenance" influencers and consultants. It'll be comparable to "win the interview" culture, so not a huge thing, but definitely a thing. T…

> We will see extraordinary acts of public violence in American streets, with responsibility probably shared between citizens, gangs, and the police

Curious if you can expand on this a bit more?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#114

Post by hdjrbrbn »

deafpolygon wrote: post #94
snyena wrote: post #39

The seeds of WW3 will continue to grow.

This is unfortunately seeming like a possibility. Everyone has forgotten how long WW2 took to brew before it broke out. WW2 is listed as having started in the year 1939, but events that led up to it started as early as 1931 depending on who you talk to. It's commonly agreed that events were already happening in 1935-1937 that triggered the war in 1939.

Depending on what you read, the end of WW1 created the seeds for WW2 basically due to the war reparations that Germany had to pay. This in turn created the hyperinflation which stoked unrest, and allowed the Nazis to flourish. John Maynard Keynes warned against the war reparations but none listened.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#115

Post by hdjrbrbn »

hdjrbrbn wrote: post #114
deafpolygon wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is unfortunately seeming like a possibility. Everyone has forgotten how long WW2 took to brew before it broke out. WW2 is listed as having started in the year 1939, but events that led up to it started as early as 1931 depending on who you talk to. It's commonly agreed that events were already happening in 1935-1937 that triggered the war in 1939.

Depending on what you read, the end of WW1 created the seeds for WW2 basically due to the war reparations that Germany had to pay. This in turn created the hyperinflation which stoked unrest, and allowed the Nazis to flourish. John Maynard Keynes warned against the war reparations but none listened.

Source: Lords of Finance

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#116

Post by 0xEF »

poulsbohemian wrote: post #89
tracer4201 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t share your optimism. The US was historically the land of opportunity, though often at the expense of imperialism, violent coupes, and endless wars. With the rise of non traditional/mainstream medias, younger generations see themselves economically imprisoned and can see through the cracks of an elite class that prioritizes its own financial interests above all else. I hope I am wrong, but the establishment po…

>I don’t think the younger generations will just roll over if you offer them cheap TVs, iPhones, or cheaper Big Macs. That's actually why I think @caprock has it right. The younger generations are building on doors that Gen X opened for them in the workplace. They are the ones demanding climate solutions. They are making it clear they aren't going to limp along until retirement when they can finally get Medicare. The…

Can you elaborate more on Gen X opening doors for younger generations? Amidst all the anti-Boomer/anti-Millennial rhetoric I tend to see bandied about online, I rarely hear anything about what good or bad Gen X has done, at least in the US. In my head, they seem like they're just along for the ride with no real effort put into major social or economic change. I am likely wrong.

Open to different perspectives since the public conversation seems to shift toward generational differences, whereas I tend to stand firmly in the "eat the rich" camp and ignore any commentary on generations. I may need to start paying more attention to that.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#117

Post by 0xEF »

gibbonsrcool wrote: post #6

I predict Google will flounder on multiple fronts. They’ll either continue empty promises of a ChatGPT killer or release one that will be 2nd rate. Meanwhile more adoption of ChatGPT and the like will mean less search and less ad revenue. Azure and AWS will take more market share from GDP. They’ll release ad-blocker unfriendly chrome and users will switch to Firefox. YouTube will expand its trial of not operating wit…

>maybe Vimeo or a newcomer

I feel that Nebula was supposed to fill this slot, but failed. The clunky UX being chief among my complaints about it, otherwise it just seems to generally lack in content variety and appears to have trouble attracting new creators. I want to like it, but I just can't find a good reason to.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#118

Post by bjorglo »

rospaya wrote: post #45
atonse wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not OP but I’ve always felt good VR will create parallel industries for travel, entertainment, etc. in ways way more interesting than gaming. Think of examples like seeing the Grand Canyon for 1/10 the price if you’re disabled or elderly. Or watching an official Taylor Swift concert like you’re actually there, for 1/2 price. No limits on ticket sales.

I haven't been to the Grand Canyon, but I've been to hundreds of concerts and I assure you, there's no existing tech that will make it "like you're actually there." The same goes for owning a house in VR worlds.

[dead]

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#119

Post by atonse »

rospaya wrote: post #45
atonse wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not OP but I’ve always felt good VR will create parallel industries for travel, entertainment, etc. in ways way more interesting than gaming. Think of examples like seeing the Grand Canyon for 1/10 the price if you’re disabled or elderly. Or watching an official Taylor Swift concert like you’re actually there, for 1/2 price. No limits on ticket sales.

I haven't been to the Grand Canyon, but I've been to hundreds of concerts and I assure you, there's no existing tech that will make it "like you're actually there." The same goes for owning a house in VR worlds.

But it isn’t about “it’s better to be there in person” but rather “in person isn’t an option, what’s the closest alternative?”

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#120

Post by afpx »

Dazzler5648 wrote: post #48
bruce511 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's less "civil war" and more "insurrection". In the sense that I don't see Californians, or indeed most Floridians, suddenly taking up arms and joining a militia. It's more likely to play out as Jan 6 did, a riled up mob that turns violent and is squashed. It becomes more of a police action than a civil war, and frankly, despite all the guns collected by the faithful, its not a fair fight. Indeed the sides are so u…

As someone who spends time in Eastern and rural California, I can totally see 'em taking up arms! A lot of Californians are already in militias. There are plenty of roiling pockets elsewhere outside these red counties, too. Don't get too comfortable with assumptions about "blue" states.

Most of it is LARPing.
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