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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#61

Post by gnfurlong »

malux85 wrote: post #25
armchairhacker wrote: post #18

The Vision Pro becomes wildly popular at least to a subset of the population. It’s continuously sold out and people scalp for absurd prices (or try to, idk if Apple will prevent this in some way; by absurd, I’m talking minimum $10,000, maybe over $1,000,000). Some people become addicted to it like the immersion trope, they don’t care about anything else anymore, stop participating in life, neglect their health, finan…

What will they do with it? In the videos I have seen it's just a bunch of people looking at photos on the couch or watching a movie, it looks boring. Do you think some sort of game will push it?

I'm waiting for pov perspectives for sporting events and I say that as someone who doesn't really watch sports.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#63

Post by aaronsimpson »

Predictions for 2024

- Trump/Scott P/VP ticket.

- Biden/Trump election is about as close as 2020. Trying to avoid partisanship, but I predict a narrow Biden victory.

- Biden loses Nevada, but keeps Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and very narrowly Michigan.

- Trump repeats his rage and cries of fraud at his second loss. This is taken even less seriously than the first time. Fox News in particular is more measured.

- Regardless of election outcome, lessons learned from J6 and congressional certification is far more protected by DC Police and National Guard. Protests in other cities get quelled without much fanfare. Maybe at most a high-profile shooting death.

- Settlement in Ukraine reached. Ukraine likely loses the Donbas and Crimea, but keeps Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, and Kherson. Frozen conflict/ceasefire in the vein of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia.

- China doesn't invade Taiwan.

- Google Gemini isn't as powerful as expected and Google AI efforts continue to flop.

- Hype around LLMs starts to die down a bit. More adoption, but less hype about AGI about to take over.

- No meaningful impacts to employment from artificial intelligence.

- Some kind of innovation in geothermal energy that increases its prominence above wind.

- Inflation drops to 2%.

- Fed gently drops rates - I'd be utterly shocked if it was more than 1 to 1 and a half basis points.

- Marianne Williamson drops before Super Tuesday.

- RFK Jr. campaign implodes by October with some other controversy on par with Jewish comments.

- End to conflict in Red Sea with the Houthis. Lasts until late spring 2024.

- Another mass school shooting happens in the United States.

- Israel ceases assault on Gaza with minimal progress towards any kind of two-state solution. Back to status quo with a weaker coalition behind Netanyahu.

- Apple Vision pushes VR to decent adoption amongst mainstream consumers.

- New iPhone marginally better than the previous generation.

- Bitcoin hits $70k

- Continued dip in Marvel quality, but no cease in ticket sales.

- (stealing from another comment) Dropbox LLM

- Twitter/X still exists. Advertisers probably return. Elon is still dumb.

- Trump is convicted in one of: classified documents case or defrauding American people. Potential acquittal or settlement in hush money case.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#65

Post by laidoffamazon »

sAbakumoff wrote: post #51
laidoffamazon wrote: post #9

- Biden wins reelection comfortably, picking up North Carolina and getting closer than 2020 in Texas. Republicans win the senate, Democrats retake the house. - Trump is convicted in at least one jurisdiction, though sentencing happens after the election. He refuses to drop out, but also refuses to debate. - Core PCE stays around 2%, economy grows at about 2% in real terms. The overall economy is stable and growing an…

What's your reasoning behind Biden's reelection? Currently, he trails Trump in all swing states, right

1) Biden will preside over a resilient and growing economy and a long list of legislative accomplishments, many of which were promised by Trump and were never enacted.

2) Abortion rights will be a big part of the election cycle and 60%+ of Americans oppose the Dobbs ruling. Trump has made it clear that he takes credit for Dobbs.

3) Polls (with the caveat that I believe they are flawed currently) suggest conviction switches a non-trivial number of Trump-friendly voters into the undecided or Biden column.

4) Overall poll toplines are currently flawed, many only use registered voter screens, and seem to overstate the number of 2020 non-voters that will vote in 2024. In reality overall turnout will be much lower in 2024. Additionally, about 50% of voters appear to be in denial that the matchup will be Biden vs. Trump.

5) Trump seems to think he has this in the bag [0] and will make even more extreme and reckless statements as the election cycle goes on.

[0]: https://politicalwire.com/2023/12/26/melania-trump-to-step-u...

Tilt Biden, I'd give it a 75% likelihood.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#66

Post by laidoffamazon »

nailer wrote: post #54
laidoffamazon wrote: post #9

- Biden wins reelection comfortably, picking up North Carolina and getting closer than 2020 in Texas. Republicans win the senate, Democrats retake the house. - Trump is convicted in at least one jurisdiction, though sentencing happens after the election. He refuses to drop out, but also refuses to debate. - Core PCE stays around 2%, economy grows at about 2% in real terms. The overall economy is stable and growing an…

Why would Trump refuse to debate?

Same reason why he's not debating his Republican rivals now; he thinks he's going to win.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#67

Post by caprock »

gibbonsrcool wrote: post #6

I predict Google will flounder on multiple fronts. They’ll either continue empty promises of a ChatGPT killer or release one that will be 2nd rate. Meanwhile more adoption of ChatGPT and the like will mean less search and less ad revenue. Azure and AWS will take more market share from GDP. They’ll release ad-blocker unfriendly chrome and users will switch to Firefox. YouTube will expand its trial of not operating wit…

> They’re the most user-hostile of the big tech companies and I want them to lose.

I'm curious, why do you want them to lose given you aren't forced to use their services?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#68

Post by Izkata »

shiroiuma wrote: post #43
bruce511 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's less "civil war" and more "insurrection". In the sense that I don't see Californians, or indeed most Floridians, suddenly taking up arms and joining a militia. It's more likely to play out as Jan 6 did, a riled up mob that turns violent and is squashed. It becomes more of a police action than a civil war, and frankly, despite all the guns collected by the faithful, its not a fair fight. Indeed the sides are so u…

I thought it'll be "the second civil war", then turn into the Eugenics Wars, and then finally WW3 with 40% of Earth's population killed. Luckily, we Terrans haven't figured out how to make a warp bomb.

The current iteration had the Eugenics Wars in the late 90s/early 2000s - it was a secret happening behind the scenes during the conflicts in the Middle East. WWIII starts in 2026.

I think Sanctuary Districts were the most impressive timing so far, it was introduced in the 90s and set in 2024, and now we have sanctuary cities building temporary housing in a similar fashion. The residents would be a bit different though.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#69

Post by ImJamal »

nailer wrote: post #55

Hamas is defeated and Gaza is policed by the UAE. Movement across the border to Israel doesn’t resume. Movement across the border to Egypt continues to not happen.

Does the UAE actually want Gaza? It seems like a country a bit closer would be better off taking control even if UAE wants it. However, it is important to note that none of the neighbors want the Palestinians (Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan). They may want the land though?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?

#70

Post by tracer4201 »

caprock wrote: post #8

I'm generally optimistic about the next five years in the United States. Change has already started, but 2024 will make it more clear. Several societal pendulums are slowing, will reach apex, and reverse course. * Optimism will regain footing * Belief in positive application of technologies which shape earth and society, will increase * Conversation and information flows will recenter on individual responsibilities i…

I don’t share your optimism. The US was historically the land of opportunity, though often at the expense of imperialism, violent coupes, and endless wars. With the rise of non traditional/mainstream medias, younger generations see themselves economically imprisoned and can see through the cracks of an elite class that prioritizes its own financial interests above all else.

I hope I am wrong, but the establishment politicians see this danger. Tik Tok is a clear example - the anti Israel narrative, which was never tolerated in the mainstream press, is gaining more and more momentum. Congressional leaders, their financial backers, and Presidential candidates are all advocating some kind of ban or suppression of Tik Tok. And this is merely one example among so many divisive politics in the US.

I don’t think the younger generations will just roll over if you offer them cheap TVs, iPhones, or cheaper Big Macs. Something drastic has to happen.

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