As I'm looking at a crazy 12 months with economics, geo-politics and technology (gen-AI) really looking forward to see what 2024 has in store and would love to hear what others think we have in store.
Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
#2related: "Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?" (50 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38614465
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
#3I don't have any specific predictions as to how or why, but I think everything is going to get worse. In some cases, much worse.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
#4I predict that 2024 will be the year that the S finally HTF.
For the US, it will probably be a neck and neck race between an internal Civil War or an external Major International War as to which one happens first.
And the general reaction will be a disbelieving "Huh? Wha'?" As if people can't see what's happening right before their eyes.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
#5I predict that 2024 will be the year that the S finally HTF. For the US, it will probably be a neck and neck race between an internal Civil War or an external Major International War as to which one happens first. And the general reaction will be a disbelieving "Huh? Wha'?" As if people can't see what's happening right before their eyes.
It’s hard to disagree with your first scenario as I keep seeing Trumps court cases, plural, line up closer and closer to the election.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
#6I predict Google will flounder on multiple fronts. They’ll either continue empty promises of a ChatGPT killer or release one that will be 2nd rate. Meanwhile more adoption of ChatGPT and the like will mean less search and less ad revenue. Azure and AWS will take more market share from GDP. They’ll release ad-blocker unfriendly chrome and users will switch to Firefox. YouTube will expand its trial of not operating with ad-blockers and a serious alternative will emerge, maybe Vimeo or maybe a newcomer. They’re the most user-hostile of the big tech companies and I want them to lose.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
#7- I predict that we will see the tangible effects of AI eating into non-technical areas (insurance, content creation, chatbots via RAG + agents) more and more.
- We will continue to see price gouging in utilities and rent, driven by corporate greed.
- Tesla will continue to dominate the electric car market, and Rivian will also make it.
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
#8I'm generally optimistic about the next five years in the United States.
Change has already started, but 2024 will make it more clear. Several societal pendulums are slowing, will reach apex, and reverse course.
* Optimism will regain footing
* Belief in positive application of technologies which shape earth and society, will increase
* Conversation and information flows will recenter on individual responsibilities in service to community
This has already started in tech, business, and culture. It's partly a response to the deflation of the 2022 growth bubble and to political instability. See American Dynamism and e/acc for narrow domain examples.
The elections will act as a forcing function, and muddy the waters a bit. However, the political world will then be a lagging indicator. People will refactor their world models regardless of who wins.
We are a caterpillar. It's going to be intense as we build the cocoon and transform over the next year or few. But then...
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
#9- Biden wins reelection comfortably, picking up North Carolina and getting closer than 2020 in Texas. Republicans win the senate, Democrats retake the house.
- Trump is convicted in at least one jurisdiction, though sentencing happens after the election. He refuses to drop out, but also refuses to debate.
- Core PCE stays around 2%, economy grows at about 2% in real terms. The overall economy is stable and growing and consumer sentiment turns positive again.
- Waymo has a publicized accident
- OpenAI releases their first open model
- Llama3 and Mistral become gpt4 competitive, but GPT5 is delayed for “safety reasons”
For fun I have copied over my predictions from last year: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34128162
—————
- US barely avoids recession, slow growth for H1, back to normal H2. NBER announces no recession in 2022. (Correct, though a tad pessimistic)
- Inflation normalizes at 4%, Fed pivots despite prior denials. Market trades sideways to slightly higher by EOY 2023. (Market traded much higher by the end of the year, and the CPI is now in the 3s not 4)
- Robotaxis become common in 10 cities around the southwest between the top ~4 competitors, but revenues are lower than expected. (Robotaxi deployments contracted due to Cruise accident)
- Continued consolidation amongst the AV component suppliers
- DeSantis, Pence, Christie, Hutchinson, Hogan enter the Presidential race. DeSantis ends up being weaker than expected, and is in a close #2 with Trump by the end of the year against a split field. (No Hogan and Trump dominated by much more than I expected after it turns out DeSantis has no juice)
- Trump recovers in GOP primary polls after DOJ indictment (he did!)
- Biden announces re-election bid, met with token opposition from Nina Turner (not Turner but his opposition is still low key. Didn’t expect RFK Jr)
- McCarthy narrowly wins speakership, House investigations end up a dud. (Happened, didn’t expect him to get axed so quickly though)
- Another fusion breakthrough (higher Q than expected) EOY 2023 (nothing huge)
- Tech job market normalizes at 2018 levels instead of 2021 levels in the second half of 2023 (feels right? Don’t know the numbers).
Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2024?
#10I don't have any specific predictions as to how or why, but I think everything is going to get worse. In some cases, much worse.
Only way is up :)