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Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
91–100 of 124 posts
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
What’s new about these incentives? Why would this be happening now, uniquely?
Things like theft under $950 being classified as a misdemeanor in California (happened in 2021 IIRC), which makes it far less likely the cops will do anything about it, de-facto legalizing theft. This isn't the only place it's happened, it's just the one that got the most visibility.
That happened in 2014. So recent-ish, but people started being really loud about it in 2021 as part of the same non-data-backed outrage.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
No. The question is absolutely whether crime is or is not rising. Factually . Another question is what voters think. And yes that can affect politics. But the truth still matters. Actual reality is still very much the question for a lot of people. And we can do things like compare statistics with perceptions and figure out what is causing the discrepancies.
> Factually. Whose facts? Who do you trust and is it a source I do, too? What's included their data and what isn't? How recent is the data they're using? If I go by the FBI a few months ago, crime is down. But the data is only up through 2022, so someone using another source will say the FBI info is inaccurate. https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2022-cr... > the truth still matters Maybe they matter…
What are you arguing? That we're can't know anything ever? That's not very useful in any kind of practical sense.
Figuring out what's going on from statistics isn't that hard if you understand how those statistics are being collected.
But they sure beat whatever you, a single person, happens to see with your own eyes. Your personal experience is an almost infinitesimally small random slice. It's just not statistically significant.
Statistics may always have error bars, but the errors bars around your personal sampling of one will always be incomparably larger.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
Here are the actual stats: https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ What you say is technically true but also highly misleading. You're cherry-picking points to put together a narrative that is not the obvious shape of the data. Peak homicides over the past 10 years are nowhere near the peak in the 90's. And they trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relat…
What I said is true, and what the op said is false and the stats you posted show this. What is actually misleading is saying something outright false like the OP. The homicide rate is higher than it has been since the mid 90s. People are worked up about crime increases because they have lived through the past 4 years and feel the tension.
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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
Someone want to explain to me why my tax dollars should go towards protecting target and Walgreen’s inventory? When they have one security guard in their entire store? When police could instead be spending that time finding the driver of the truck that smashed into my car and drove away?
Because those businesses also pay taxes and probably more than you do?
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why should my tax dollars go towards investigating damage to your car, when you don't even have a single security guard?
What sort of investigation do you think they'll do? My experience is the cops aren't able to do much, and won't investigate for something equivalent to taking toothpaste from a Target. When someone did a dent-and-run into my car in a parking lot, the police didn't investigate. I got an incident report from them, to send to my insurance. In that case the police report gives the insurance company a way to handle possib…
I gave police the license # of the truck that hit me, but they said it was an out of state plate so they said there was "nothing they could do." Translation being that they didn't feel like dealing with it.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#97Maybe because in the places where most news are written (DC, NY, SF) crime has spiked drastically? EG: "D.C. Police have responded to 227 homicides so far in 2023. That's up 34% from the same time last year. It also tops 2021's total for the year, which was the highest since 2003. That means the homicide rate in the District is the highest it's been in 20 years, and climbing, with two months left in the year." https:…
I was wondering about this too. Maybe the geographical distribution of crime is changing, even if overall there is less of it per capita.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because those businesses also pay taxes and probably more than you do?
Are you sure that's true? https://qz.com/1701404/walmart-allegedly-created-fictitious-... https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/opinion/2017/04/08/wa... https://americansfortaxfairness.org/files/ATF-Key-Findings-O...
Police is funded with the local taxes: business, property and sales. Your articles show no evidence of Walmart not paying those, just the US taxes, which do not fund the police (at least directly, there are some federal grants to local police forces but those are: a) small fraction of the budget b) are given to pushing the federal partisan polices and not the actual enforcing of the laws).
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are you sure that's true? https://qz.com/1701404/walmart-allegedly-created-fictitious-... https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/opinion/2017/04/08/wa... https://americansfortaxfairness.org/files/ATF-Key-Findings-O...
Police is funded with the local taxes: business, property and sales. Your articles show no evidence of Walmart not paying those, just the US taxes, which do not fund the police (at least directly, there are some federal grants to local police forces but those are: a) small fraction of the budget b) are given to pushing the federal partisan polices and not the actual enforcing of the laws).
https://goodjobsfirst.org/report-walmart-state-and-local-tax...
They also don’t seem to make an effort to actually stop shoplifting. They take out regular check out lanes and replace them with self check outs that are unbelievably frustrating to use and make it very easy to shoplift accidentally. One time I apparently shoplifted an item by accident while using the self checkout lane, the only reason I realized is because I went back to return the item and it wasn’t on the receipt. The clerk helping me with the return just laughed and said it happens all the time.
If their only response to shoplifting is to just jack up prices and then go on TV and blame democrats for “crime” while doing literally nothing to stop shoplifting then I have little to no sympathy for them.
Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong
#100The question isn't whether it is or isn't rising, but what voters consider acceptable. If voters find the current level of crime unacceptable, it doesn't matter what the broader trend is. I personally find the concept of open air drug use, retail theft, and shit on the street unacceptable, I could care less what the numbers say and will vote based off of what I see with my own eyes. And whether or not that's "statist…
But you don't even know what to vote for because no one knows what policies reduce crime. We do know that stricter sentencing doesn't work, but outside of that there are a million guesses. You could easily vote for someone who pretends to know and makes the problem worse.
> We do know that stricter sentencing doesn't work
"Doesn't work" in what sense? In a rehabilitative sense? Is everyone in agreement that this is its intended purpose? Also: for what types of crimes?
Kind of hard to believe really, you think the Code of Hammurabi didn't work?