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Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#51

Post by uoaei »

diogenescynic wrote: post #16
addicted wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

What about overdoses which are at all time highs? Also, there are crimes beyond murder that affect quality of life. It seems like a fallacy to argue that because murders are down that all crime is down...

What do overdoses have to do with crime?

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#52

Post by matrix87 »

The question isn't whether it is or isn't rising, but what voters consider acceptable. If voters find the current level of crime unacceptable, it doesn't matter what the broader trend is.

I personally find the concept of open air drug use, retail theft, and shit on the street unacceptable, I could care less what the numbers say and will vote based off of what I see with my own eyes. And whether or not that's "statistically sound", I could care less. Crime is decreasing? Okay, I guess it isn't decreasing quickly enough

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#53

Post by scarface_74 »

jliptzin wrote: post #38
fallingknife wrote: post #25

I had to get someone to unlock a case the other day to buy underwear at Target. Other times it's been toothpaste or deodorant. Someone want to explain to me why these things are locked up now, but they used to not be? Someone want to explain to me why I see videos of people stealing without consequence while security looks on powerless to do anything? Someone want to explain to me why there are open air markets for s…

Someone want to explain to me why my tax dollars should go towards protecting target and Walgreen’s inventory? When they have one security guard in their entire store? When police could instead be spending that time finding the driver of the truck that smashed into my car and drove away?

Because those businesses also pay taxes and probably more than you do?

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#54

Post by forrestthewoods »

addicted wrote: post #9
diogenescynic wrote: post #3

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

I live in Seattle. We just set a new record for homicides. I think an all-time high.

Also, I don’t think homicides is necessarily that accurate a metric. It’s immune to many things. But it isn’t immune to advances in trauma treatment. I’ve always wondered if cell phones reduced homicides by reducing response times.

I’d love to know shooting victim statistics. But that’s not as complete and comprehensive as homicide counts.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#55

Post by sgarland »

spinach wrote: post #50
jliptzin wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone want to explain to me why my tax dollars should go towards protecting target and Walgreen’s inventory? When they have one security guard in their entire store? When police could instead be spending that time finding the driver of the truck that smashed into my car and drove away?

Because Walmart also pays taxes.

Do they, though?

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#56

Post by crazygringo »

matrix87 wrote: post #52

The question isn't whether it is or isn't rising, but what voters consider acceptable. If voters find the current level of crime unacceptable, it doesn't matter what the broader trend is. I personally find the concept of open air drug use, retail theft, and shit on the street unacceptable, I could care less what the numbers say and will vote based off of what I see with my own eyes. And whether or not that's "statist…

No.

The question is absolutely whether crime is or is not rising. Factually.

Another question is what voters think. And yes that can affect politics.

But the truth still matters. Actual reality is still very much the question for a lot of people.

And we can do things like compare statistics with perceptions and figure out what is causing the discrepancies.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#57

Post by caditinpiscinam »

greatpostman wrote: post #6

For a while now, there has been complete suppression/derision of people who use their own life anecdotes to come to conclusions about society. The church of only using rigorous statistics to draw conclusions is a method of thought control.

Asking this not because I disagree with you, but because I want to know more about your perspective: what is your opinion of people who are skeptical of/hesitant towards vaccines?

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#58

Post by crazygringo »

verteu wrote: post #40

I dunno, I see a pretty large spike in homicide rate: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=us+homicide+rate or https://i.imgur.com/v38RdZU.png https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crim... (not per-capita) Much like inflation, people aren't great at estimating the precise year-over-year change, but the last 5 or 10 years shows some real reasons for concern.

You're missing data from the past 3 years showing it coming back down.

In a conversation about current trends, it's important not to link to a dataset that only ends in 2020.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#59

Post by [deleted] »

matrix87 wrote: post #24
bavent wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean backing things up with facts instead of anecdotes is thought control? What?

No, I'm pretty sure gp means drawing conclusions based off of lived experience instead of more general statistics. Or at least, not putting so much faith in statistics to allow them to cancel personal experiences which are opposed to them Maybe an argument for that could be that statistics are normally framed in a certain way, or may obscure certain things, or may be inconclusive. Statistics can be gamed, sometimes c…

[deleted]

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#60

Post by zzleeper »

Maybe because in the places where most news are written (DC, NY, SF) crime has spiked drastically?

EG:

"D.C. Police have responded to 227 homicides so far in 2023. That's up 34% from the same time last year. It also tops 2021's total for the year, which was the highest since 2003. That means the homicide rate in the District is the highest it's been in 20 years, and climbing, with two months left in the year."

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/crime/dc-homicide-rate-20...

https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/10/03/dc-crim...

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