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Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

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Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#81

Post by runsWphotons »

crazygringo wrote: post #44
runsWphotons wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they are higher than theyve been in like 30 years (since mid 90s). And they have been trending up for like 10 years, not just pandemic thing.

Here are the actual stats: https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/31062/us-homicide-rate/ What you say is technically true but also highly misleading. You're cherry-picking points to put together a narrative that is not the obvious shape of the data. Peak homicides over the past 10 years are nowhere near the peak in the 90's. And they trended downward in 2022, and mid-year 2023 estimates were downwards another 9.4% relat…

What I said is true, and what the op said is false and the stats you posted show this. What is actually misleading is saying something outright false like the OP. The homicide rate is higher than it has been since the mid 90s. People are worked up about crime increases because they have lived through the past 4 years and feel the tension.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#82

Post by runsWphotons »

ajross wrote: post #27
runsWphotons wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they are higher than theyve been in like 30 years (since mid 90s). And they have been trending up for like 10 years, not just pandemic thing.

Not according to this chart: https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ Pretty clearly the inflection is at 2020. It was flat before that, so sure, you can draw a "trend" upwards since the lowest point in 2014 or so, but that's just playing games with curve fitting. I can equally tell you, with the same kind of support, that clearly the trend is downward from 1991 to today. "Just look at the numbers!" And…

That chart shows exactly what I said, we have the highest rates since the mid 90s and there is a clear upward trend since 2014 (ten years ago now). Thats not "playing games"---its a lot more true than what the OP said.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#83

Post by runsWphotons »

runsWphotons wrote: post #82
ajross wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not according to this chart: https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ Pretty clearly the inflection is at 2020. It was flat before that, so sure, you can draw a "trend" upwards since the lowest point in 2014 or so, but that's just playing games with curve fitting. I can equally tell you, with the same kind of support, that clearly the trend is downward from 1991 to today. "Just look at the numbers!" And…

That chart shows exactly what I said, we have the highest rates since the mid 90s and there is a clear upward trend since 2014 (ten years ago now). Thats not "playing games"---its a lot more true than what the OP said.

Just to emphasize, indeed "look at the numbers". The gap between 2014 and 2022 is about 2/100,000--that is over 6000 people. This isnt some statistical anomaly---it is a real increase. Crime is going up.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#84

Post by eesmith »

murderfs wrote: post #64
jliptzin wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone want to explain to me why my tax dollars should go towards protecting target and Walgreen’s inventory? When they have one security guard in their entire store? When police could instead be spending that time finding the driver of the truck that smashed into my car and drove away?

Why should my tax dollars go towards investigating damage to your car, when you don't even have a single security guard?

What sort of investigation do you think they'll do? My experience is the cops aren't able to do much, and won't investigate for something equivalent to taking toothpaste from a Target.

When someone did a dent-and-run into my car in a parking lot, the police didn't investigate. I got an incident report from them, to send to my insurance. In that case the police report gives the insurance company a way to handle possible fraud on my part.

During the night someone went down the street and poked a hole in car tires, including one of mine. I didn't bother calling the police since I didn't think they could do anything. I needed to get going, so put on the spare and left.

You think a police investigation could have done something?

Flipping it around, when I was a kid on a bike I ran into someone's side view mirror and knocked it off. I was so scared about getting punished by my parents that I left. If the police investigated, they never caught me, and more importantly, my parents never found out.

The only time we ever called the cops was when visiting friends in a small town. I came out to find a car window had been shattered, and we found a BB among the broken glass. The cops came for that one. Turns out some bored teens were going around shooting things with a BB gun. That one actually went to trial and I got court-ordered compensation.

But that was car damage plus serial gun crime, and not typical car damage.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#85

Post by Ferret7446 »

addicted wrote: post #9
diogenescynic wrote: post #3

"Who are you going to trust, me or your lying eyes?" The issue is that the stats don't tell the whole story. Most states/cities have simply decriminalized behavior that was previously considered 'crime' so that's why people think crime rates are rising when they see more open drug use, brazen theft like shoplifting or car break ins, and prostitutes walking around in public in their underwear--so people rightfully fee…

I keep posting this because there’s always this comment. There’s been a pretty standard way used for decades to determine whether crime is actually rising or increasing in the US that’s immune to reporting, legislative, etc changes. Look at homicides. Dead bodies do not get hidden in the US. And homicides are decreasing.

Yes, that's great and all, but that doesn't change the fact that all of the car windows are smashed, and you regularly see people, sometimes the same people, smashing the windows in person.

Quoth Jeff Bezos: "The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it."

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#86

Post by pintxo »

matrix87 wrote: post #24
bavent wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean backing things up with facts instead of anecdotes is thought control? What?

No, I'm pretty sure gp means drawing conclusions based off of lived experience instead of more general statistics. Or at least, not putting so much faith in statistics to allow them to cancel personal experiences which are opposed to them Maybe an argument for that could be that statistics are normally framed in a certain way, or may obscure certain things, or may be inconclusive. Statistics can be gamed, sometimes c…

No one is going to argue against using common sense to validate statistics and their underlying assumptions.

But replacing statistics with “common sense” is just nonsense. Humanity has come to the point it is now, not by following “common sense” but by following science. And that’s more often than not basically statistics.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#87

Post by Izkata »

ethanbond wrote: post #37
hx8 wrote: post #35

I don't trust the stats. Things that would have been reported as crimes 15 years ago aren't being called in now. * Leaders inside the police force have incentives to make it look like their departments are effective and nudge the numbers. * Elected officials, such as the mayor, have incentives to make it look like the police department is effective and reinforce the number nudgers. * This has a reinforcing cycle wher…

What’s new about these incentives? Why would this be happening now, uniquely?

Things like theft under $950 being classified as a misdemeanor in California (happened in 2021 IIRC), which makes it far less likely the cops will do anything about it, de-facto legalizing theft.

This isn't the only place it's happened, it's just the one that got the most visibility.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#88

Post by drewcoo »

crazygringo wrote: post #56
matrix87 wrote: post #52

The question isn't whether it is or isn't rising, but what voters consider acceptable. If voters find the current level of crime unacceptable, it doesn't matter what the broader trend is. I personally find the concept of open air drug use, retail theft, and shit on the street unacceptable, I could care less what the numbers say and will vote based off of what I see with my own eyes. And whether or not that's "statist…

No. The question is absolutely whether crime is or is not rising. Factually . Another question is what voters think. And yes that can affect politics. But the truth still matters. Actual reality is still very much the question for a lot of people. And we can do things like compare statistics with perceptions and figure out what is causing the discrepancies.

> Factually.

Whose facts? Who do you trust and is it a source I do, too? What's included their data and what isn't? How recent is the data they're using?

If I go by the FBI a few months ago, crime is down. But the data is only up through 2022, so someone using another source will say the FBI info is inaccurate.

https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-2022-cr...

> the truth still matters

Maybe they matter, but there are multiple truths.

> Actual reality is still very much the question for a lot of people

Maybe those people don't realize that even science is our best understanding given current data. Or that our "truths" are often hazy statistical models. A sure recipe for falsehood is seeking simple answers.

Re: Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They're wrong

#90

Post by ajross »

runsWphotons wrote: post #83
runsWphotons wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That chart shows exactly what I said, we have the highest rates since the mid 90s and there is a clear upward trend since 2014 (ten years ago now). Thats not "playing games"---its a lot more true than what the OP said.

Just to emphasize, indeed "look at the numbers". The gap between 2014 and 2022 is about 2/100,000--that is over 6000 people. This isnt some statistical anomaly---it is a real increase. Crime is going up.

Why 2014 and 2022 and not 1991 and 2022? Or 2020 and 2022? Other than one confirms your prior and the other two refute it?

And regardless, the fact that the first derivative is negative clearly makes "crime is going up" a lie. Crime is going DOWN right now, as measured. You need to be more specific: "Crime over the past 9 years is going up" would be true (but again, not if you replace 9 with 2 or 30!).

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